West Virginia Mountaineers (10-2) vs. Miami Hurricanes (8-4)
December 28, 2016 ( 5:30 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Miami -3
S&P+ Projection: Miami (34.8-23.8)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | West Virginia | Miami | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 52 | 13 | ||
| Category | West Virginia offense | Miami defense | Miami offense | West Virginia defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.38 (16) | 4.57 (10) | 6.08 (31) | 5.29 (49) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 510.3 (11) | 347.2 (23) | 418.8 (60) | 424.0 (75) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.46 (47) | 1.46 (12) | 2.64 (37) | 1.80 (34) |
| Category | West Virginia offense | Miami defense | Miami offense | West Virginia defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 34.6 (35) | 19.9 (14) | 34.5 (36) | 28.2 (55) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 101.9 (69) | 113.0 (28) | 103.8 (59) | 109.2 (34) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 110.2 (44) | 127.4 (9) | 108.9 (47) | 109.1 (35) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 104.1 (54) | 116.4 (16) | 109.7 (39) | 111.5 (28) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 111.8 (42) | 121.0 (20) | 105.6 (61) | 106.8 (47) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 105.7 (58) | 138.2 (7) | 113.3 (41) | 102.2 (56) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 112.8 (41) | 114.6 (27) | 98.4 (80) | 110.5 (40) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 119.4 (22) | 104.4 (49) | 127.8 (14) | 131.4 (7) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 97.9 (86) | 120.2 (14) | 102.7 (62) | 98.6 (69) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
West Virginia
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 29 defense vs. No. 91 offense)
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 26 defense vs. No. 76 offense)
- Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 21 defense vs. No. 67 offense)
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 14 defense vs. No. 41 offense)
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 20 defense vs. No. 47 offense)
Miami
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 43 offense vs. No. 117 defense)
- Q4 S&P+ (No. 15 vs. No. 89 )
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 20 defense vs. No. 89 offense)
- Field Position (No. 31 defense vs. No. 96 offense)
- Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 17 defense vs. No. 71 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | West Virginia offense | Miami defense | Miami offense | West Virginia defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.35 (29) | 1.17 (21) | 1.44 (8) | 1.26 (70) |
| EFFICIENCY | 44.2% (42) | 38.8% (35) | 42.5% (64) | 40.5% (45) |
| FIELD POSITION | 28.3 (96) | 27.8 (31) | 31.1 (36) | 29.1 (67) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.2 (92) | 3.5 (10) | 4.6 (62) | 3.7 (17) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: West Virginia 8.70 (9) Miami 10.15 (3) |
ACTUAL West Virginia 5 (31) Miami 8 (14) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | West Virginia offense | Miami offense |
| Adj. Pace | 5.2 (20) | -6.6 (115) |
| Plays per game | 79.9 (20) | 68.9 (111) |
| Possessions per game | 13.3 (46) | 13.1 (56) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 60.5% (65) | 51.4% (108) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 38.4% (32) | 30.1% (88) |
| % of solo tackles | 83.9% (9) | 76.5% (41) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | West Virginia defense | Miami defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 57.5% (87) | 58.5% (78) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 29.6% (104) | 32.2% (85) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 13.7% (98) | 18.5% (20) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 5.0% (128) | 12.5% (11) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 8.5% (11) | 5.9% (82) |
| PD to INC | 31.5% (84) | 32.6% (70) |
When West Virginia has the ball…
Standard Downs
| West Virginia Offense | Miami Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 104.1 | 54 | 116.4 | 16 | Miami |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 47.6 | 67 | 44.2 | 36 | Miami |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.22 | 27 | 1.04 | 24 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.34 | 16 | 2.26 | 6 | Miami |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.7% | 38 | 5% | 60 | West Virginia |
Passing Downs
| West Virginia Offense | Miami Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 111.8 | 42 | 121.0 | 20 | Miami |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 36.2 | 20 | 29.4 | 46 | West Virginia |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.74 | 64 | 1.97 | 13 | Miami big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.76 | 23 | 3.60 | 102 | West Virginia big |
| PD Sack Rate | 7.7% | 63 | 8.6% | 43 | Miami |
When Miami has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Miami Offense | West Virginia Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 109.7 | 39 | 111.5 | 28 | West Virginia |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 47.4 | 70 | 46.6 | 55 | West Virginia |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.29 | 11 | 1.02 | 34 | Miami |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.91 | 79 | 3.27 | 107 | Miami |
| SD Sack Rate | 5.2% | 72 | 2.4% | 117 | Miami |
Passing Downs
| Miami Offense | West Virginia Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 105.6 | 61 | 106.8 | 47 | West Virginia |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 32.3 | 50 | 28.4 | 33 | West Virginia |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.90 | 23 | 1.58 | 119 | Miami big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.86 | 101 | 3.40 | 84 | West Virginia |
| PD Sack Rate | 6.3% | 41 | 6.8% | 81 | Miami |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
