South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) vs. Air Force Falcons (9-3)
December 30, 2016 ( 5:30 PM ET, ASN )
Spread: Air Force -13.5
S&P+ Projection: Air Force (33.3-24.6)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | South Alabama | Air Force | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 95 | 58 | ||
| Category | South Alabama offense | Air Force defense | Air Force offense | South Alabama defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.45 (71) | 5.68 (79) | 5.70 (58) | 5.38 (56) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 390.8 (80) | 379.7 (48) | 443.8 (44) | 387.8 (53) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.05 (83) | 2.16 (67) | 2.77 (26) | 2.03 (52) |
| Category | South Alabama offense | Air Force defense | Air Force offense | South Alabama defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 23.7 (102) | 30.9 (80) | 31.4 (52) | 29.7 (69) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 100.0 (76) | 127.7 (8) | 105.9 (51) | 84.1 (121) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 87.4 (103) | 94.0 (89) | 118.8 (22) | 91.0 (102) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 97.3 (83) | 115.0 (20) | 102.4 (62) | 89.9 (108) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 81.6 (118) | 90.2 (99) | 110.9 (43) | 83.2 (119) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 95.7 (91) | 97.7 (78) | 100.2 (73) | 96.3 (80) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 87.8 (115) | 111.4 (37) | 112.4 (43) | 78.8 (126) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 92.4 (98) | 113.7 (24) | 109.5 (43) | 82.9 (122) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 105.8 (50) | 106.1 (46) | 101.1 (68) | 105.6 (47) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
South Alabama
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 58 defense vs. No. 112 offense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 85 defense vs. No. 119 offense)
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 58 defense vs. No. 88 offense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 39 defense vs. No. 64 offense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 35 defense vs. No. 57 offense)
Air Force
- Q2 S&P+ (No. 26 vs. No. 127 )
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 9 defense vs. No. 110 offense)
- Q3 S&P+ (No. 30 vs. No. 118 )
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 8 offense vs. No. 95 defense)
- Passing S&P+ (No. 22 offense vs. No. 102 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | South Alabama offense | Air Force defense | Air Force offense | South Alabama defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.21 (90) | 1.47 (124) | 1.18 (104) | 1.24 (54) |
| EFFICIENCY | 42.3% (69) | 36.8% (22) | 47.9% (16) | 42.5% (64) |
| FIELD POSITION | 29.9 (59) | 28.8 (56) | 31.3 (31) | 28.6 (51) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.1 (95) | 4.7 (81) | 4.7 (43) | 3.9 (22) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: South Alabama -1.91 (86) Air Force 3.33 (41) |
ACTUAL South Alabama 1 (56) Air Force 3 (43) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | South Alabama offense | Air Force offense |
| Adj. Pace | -2.5 (85) | 8.4 (8) |
| Plays per game | 71.8 (80) | 77.8 (33) |
| Possessions per game | 12.6 (87) | 12.4 (94) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 63.5% (43) | 89.1% (2) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 19.0% (128) | 61.4% (3) |
| % of solo tackles | 69.9% (101) | 67.8% (113) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | South Alabama defense | Air Force defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 68.4% (12) | 62.5% (42) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 42.5% (9) | 31.8% (89) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 17.0% (36) | 16.9% (41) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 8.9% (63) | 10.1% (46) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 7.9% (22) | 6.8% (43) |
| PD to INC | 36.9% (26) | 34.3% (54) |
When South Alabama has the ball…
Standard Downs
| South Alabama Offense | Air Force Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 97.3 | 83 | 115.0 | 20 | Air Force big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 47.7 | 65 | 39.7 | 7 | Air Force big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.15 | 48 | 1.09 | 118 | South Alabama big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.12 | 47 | 2.23 | 5 | Air Force |
| SD Sack Rate | 4% | 48 | 5.3% | 54 | |
Passing Downs
| South Alabama Offense | Air Force Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 81.6 | 118 | 90.2 | 99 | Air Force |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 30.4 | 69 | 31.8 | 77 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.41 | 126 | 1.71 | 112 | Air Force |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.40 | 50 | 3.37 | 80 | South Alabama |
| PD Sack Rate | 9.8% | 98 | 7.9% | 65 | Air Force |
When Air Force has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Air Force Offense | South Alabama Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 102.4 | 62 | 89.9 | 108 | Air Force |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 52.7 | 15 | 46.2 | 51 | Air Force |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.04 | 103 | 1.26 | 56 | South Alabama |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.41 | 11 | 3.04 | 77 | Air Force big |
| SD Sack Rate | 4.3% | 57 | 6.2% | 35 | South Alabama |
Passing Downs
| Air Force Offense | South Alabama Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 110.9 | 43 | 83.2 | 119 | Air Force big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 32.7 | 46 | 33.8 | 97 | Air Force big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.90 | 24 | 1.93 | 58 | Air Force |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.38 | 53 | 3.36 | 78 | Air Force |
| PD Sack Rate | 12.8% | 119 | 6.5% | 85 | South Alabama |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
