Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-4) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (7-5)
December 31, 2016 ( 11:00 AM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Georgia Tech -3.5
S&P+ Projection: Georgia Tech (34.1-29.0)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Georgia Tech | Kentucky | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 50 | 59 | ||
| Category | Georgia Tech offense | Kentucky defense | Kentucky offense | Georgia Tech defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.33 (19) | 5.85 (92) | 6.11 (30) | 5.59 (72) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 385.0 (86) | 434.3 (83) | 423.5 (59) | 402.8 (57) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.55 (41) | 2.44 (88) | 2.37 (53) | 2.22 (74) |
| Category | Georgia Tech offense | Kentucky defense | Kentucky offense | Georgia Tech defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 33.2 (44) | 32.0 (87) | 32.2 (47) | 28.9 (61) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 119.3 (15) | 90.3 (105) | 123.5 (10) | 88.1 (111) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 127.4 (11) | 96.0 (81) | 101.3 (65) | 94.7 (85) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 114.2 (23) | 97.5 (75) | 114.2 (24) | 90.8 (104) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 121.4 (18) | 83.3 (118) | 108.1 (51) | 94.3 (90) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 129.9 (13) | 95.4 (84) | 116.5 (32) | 85.9 (114) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 116.8 (33) | 91.8 (97) | 101.2 (71) | 99.3 (74) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 102.5 (59) | 87.9 (116) | 129.8 (10) | 93.5 (95) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 120.9 (8) | 90.6 (102) | 108.1 (42) | 89.1 (109) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Georgia Tech
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 16 offense vs. No. 123 defense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 12 offense vs. No. 115 defense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 23 offense vs. No. 123 defense)
- Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 18 offense vs. No. 118 defense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 15 offense vs. No. 105 defense)
Kentucky
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 5 offense vs. No. 121 defense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 11 offense vs. No. 119 defense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 10 offense vs. No. 111 defense)
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 16 offense vs. No. 116 defense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 12 offense vs. No. 98 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Georgia Tech offense | Kentucky defense | Kentucky offense | Georgia Tech defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.50 (2) | 1.16 (18) | 1.45 (6) | 1.14 (11) |
| EFFICIENCY | 42.4% (66) | 47.7% (117) | 42.1% (72) | 46.7% (114) |
| FIELD POSITION | 29.2 (74) | 29.6 (78) | 29.0 (79) | 28.2 (44) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.7 (45) | 4.6 (72) | 4.9 (33) | 4.3 (50) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Georgia Tech -2.81 (92) Kentucky -2.18 (87) |
ACTUAL Georgia Tech 3 (43) Kentucky -6 (106) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Georgia Tech offense | Kentucky offense |
| Adj. Pace | -9.0 (125) | -3.3 (91) |
| Plays per game | 60.8 (128) | 69.3 (104) |
| Possessions per game | 10.9 (127) | 13.1 (56) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 84.9% (4) | 69.4% (13) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 57.8% (4) | 41.2% (21) |
| % of solo tackles | 81.2% (17) | 76.4% (43) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Georgia Tech defense | Kentucky defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 57.1% (91) | 64.4% (27) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 37.9% (32) | 41.2% (13) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 11.9% (123) | 13.4% (104) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 6.6% (119) | 8.1% (83) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 5.3% (100) | 5.3% (98) |
| PD to INC | 26.8% (119) | 31.7% (80) |
When Georgia Tech has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Georgia Tech Offense | Kentucky Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 114.2 | 23 | 97.5 | 75 | Georgia Tech big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 49.2 | 41 | 52.4 | 117 | Georgia Tech big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.30 | 7 | 1.00 | 21 | Georgia Tech |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.08 | 54 | 3.62 | 127 | Georgia Tech big |
| SD Sack Rate | 7.8% | 116 | 5.2% | 57 | Kentucky big |
Passing Downs
| Georgia Tech Offense | Kentucky Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 121.4 | 18 | 83.3 | 118 | Georgia Tech big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 28.4 | 97 | 36.3 | 120 | Georgia Tech |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.23 | 2 | 1.67 | 48 | Georgia Tech |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.10 | 82 | 3.84 | 115 | Georgia Tech |
| PD Sack Rate | 9.3% | 89 | 8.3% | 51 | Kentucky |
When Kentucky has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Kentucky Offense | Georgia Tech Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 114.2 | 24 | 90.8 | 104 | Kentucky big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.6 | 54 | 51.9 | 114 | Kentucky big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.27 | 14 | 1.01 | 16 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.34 | 16 | 3.35 | 113 | Kentucky big |
| SD Sack Rate | 5.4% | 78 | 3.6% | 99 | Kentucky |
Passing Downs
| Kentucky Offense | Georgia Tech Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 108.1 | 51 | 94.3 | 90 | Kentucky |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 28.3 | 101 | 33.7 | 96 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.07 | 9 | 1.69 | 37 | Kentucky |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.86 | 15 | 3.26 | 67 | Kentucky big |
| PD Sack Rate | 9.8% | 98 | 3.8% | 120 | Kentucky |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
