Your 2016 AAC football guide, from UCF to Houston

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year’s team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year’s roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

There were two main narratives regarding Navy’s move to the AAC, and both were pretty patronizing. The first was that it meant a scheduling upgrade that the Midshipmen might not be able to handle. The second was that Navy would struggle once opponents adapted to the offense.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year’s team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year’s roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

It’s amazing what a good hire can do. In 2012 Memphis brought Justin Fuente in to clean up a nasty mess, and he needed just four years to work miracles. The Tigers improved from 3-21 in 2010-11 to 7-17 in 2012-13 to 19-7 in 2014-15.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year’s team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year’s roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

Recruit better players, develop them well, improve your team on the field. Coaching is simple, right?

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year’s team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year’s roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

Houston head coach Tom Herman lived up to the hype in his first year back in Texas. The first-time head coach engineered 13 wins, an AAC title, a 3-0 record vs. power conference teams, a Peach Bowl title, and the school’s first AP top-10 finish in 25 years.

At the end of each conference run-through (previously: Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt), I take a look at how I perceive the conference’s balance of power heading into the season. This is in no way based on schedules, so they are not predictions. This is just how I would rank the teams after writing thousands of words about each of them.

Win projections for each team are based on odds. If you’re given a 60 percent chance of winning a given game, your projection gives you 0.6 wins. Keep this in mind when you look at the projections for everybody from the AAC below, and think about how many tossups this conference race is going to have. It’s going to be fantastic.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year’s team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year’s roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

You can poke fun at me for even briefly entertaining the notion that a Tuberville team could be a safe bet. You can use hindsight to point out the team I called maybe the best in the AAC had nothing close to the ceiling of others like Houston and Temple. But you cannot say Cincy wasn’t entertaining.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year’s team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year’s roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

We tend to stick up for the good dudes, the coaches who seem to genuinely care about being father figures for their players, the players who seem to truly get it, the figures who remind us of the game’s humanity.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year’s team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year’s roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

UConn had regressed, at least a little bit, for five consecutive years heading into 2015. That’s both difficult to do and terrifying. The entire, ill-advised Paul Pasqualoni era had been one of minor slippage, but the fifth year of regression had a purpose.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year’s team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year’s roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

You have to enjoy the general problem-solving approach of AAC teams: If your team stinks, go out and get a new head coach who is either a) an offensive dynamo, b) an exciting up-and-comer, or c) both.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year’s team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year’s roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

When a program is wooing you for its head coaching job, a bottoming-out season can almost become attractive.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year’s team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year’s roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

One day, you’re winning the Fiesta Bowl. Barely 18 months later, you’re careening off of the proverbial cliff.