Cal might have just made an expensive mistake by firing Sonny Dykes in January

Cal made a surprising decision this Sunday, as it announced the firing of head coach Sonny Dykes.

Sure, Cal wasn’t great this season. The Bears finished 5-7 in what they figured was going to be a rebuilding year, and Dykes only went 19-30 during his tenure, an era that included the entire college career of top NFL Draft pick Jared Goff.

But Dykes almost certainly wasn’t just fired because of on-field performance alone. In the formal release, the athletic department noted it wants to “have a head coach in place who is fully committed to our program and our university,” no doubt a shot at Dykes’ well-known flirtations with other jobs, most recently Baylor’s. Dykes is from Texas and has deep ties to the region.

So a school got tired of its average coach who was constantly interviewing for other jobs and decided to fire him. That’s a potentially defensible position.

For one, it’s not like the fact that Dykes was looking elsewhere was a big secret. He was tied to Houston in 2014 and Missouri last season. If Cal wanted to pull the plug then, it certainly could’ve. Instead, the school gave Dykes an extension last season, making a decision to let him go later even more expensive.

And Cal might be the Power 5 school least equipped to make things more expensive. Recently, Bloomberg singled out Cal as the P5 program carrying the most athletic debt in the country, and it isn’t even close. Per Bloomberg, Cal’s athletic department was $22 million in the red and owes over $440 million in debt.

Why so much red ink?

Cal recently completed the most expensive stadium renovation ever, as its field resides near a fault line and needed extensive structural repairs. The department hoped to pay for these repairs with long-term season ticket packages, but as the team has declined, they’ve fallen short of revenue goals. The struggles with the Pac-12 Network haven’t helped, either. The department is considering a variety of potentially drastic moves, including cutting multiple sports.

Cal even alluded to the severity of the situation in its statement, adding:

Our objective is long-term financial sustainability for our department. In order to do this, we understand that investing in football is critical. We believe that this change will reinvigorate the program, stimulate lagging ticket sales and renewals, and energize our donor base.

Thanks to that extension, it’ll need to pay even more money. Dykes reportedly will get a buyout of $5 million dollars. Telling a student-athlete that you might need to cut his or her sport, while turning around to give Dykes millions to not coach, sounds like a difficult conversation.

Some of that buyout could be offset if Dykes gets another head coaching or coordinator job. But even if another school helps pick up the tab, the Bears will still need to pony up to bring on other coaches and likely would suffer a recruiting ding for making a transition so close to National Signing Day.

It would be one thing if Cal were targeting a massive name to replace Dykes, and even though some fans are clamoring for Chip Kelly, the two names getting the most buzz right now are Wisconsin DC Justin Wilcox and Cal Interim head coach and OC Jake Spavital. Both are quality assistant coaches, but neither has ever been a head coach, which makes the move even riskier.

If Cal is willing to make such a drastic decision, it better hope it can absolutely nail the hire. Had it fired Dykes to hire an assistant coach two years ago, it would have been cheaper and less risky. Now, the stakes are raised.