Below, let’s keep track of Week 9’s ranked games in a way similar to the College Football Playoff committee’s perspective.
Tracking the College Football Playoff rankings picture entering Week 9
Let’s keep track of Week 9’s biggest games as final scores roll in, Playoff committee-style.
Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images
For the committee, it’s not about what you did this week. It’s about what your entire schedule did all year long. Beating a team in Week 9 that finishes .500-plus is better than beating a team that doesn’t, no matter where either team is ranked at kickoff. The same goes for a team that finishes in the Playoff’s Top 25.
Committee rankings won’t be out until Oct. 31, so we’ll stick with AP Poll rankings for now.
We’ll have fun stuff and gameplay analysis elsewhere and later on. This post is only about how these results are likely to impact the Playoff picture.
Win projections are via S&P+. Final scores are in bold.
Important!
Games between teams likely to finish in the committee’s final top 25, regardless of Week 9 result, meaning the winner gains a major quality W. Or upsets of teams that had legit Playoff shots.
- No. 6 Ohio State (7-1) 39, No. 2 Penn State (7-1) 38: Both finishing ranked is a safe bet. Ohio State just all but made up for its ugly loss to Oklahoma.
- No. 25 Iowa State (6-2) 14, No. 4 TCU (7-1) 7: The Big 12’s Playoff chances are in major danger.
- No. 9 Notre Dame (7-1) 35, No. 14 NC State (6-2) 14: NC State still projects around 8-4 or 9-3, with all of its losses either away from home (South Carolina, Notre Dame, and perhaps another), to Playoff contenders (Notre Dame and likely Clemson), or in extremely weird games that the committee would likely caveat somewhat (South Carolina). So this should be a really nice blowout win.
Should have some impact
Games between teams likely to finish .500-plus, regardless of Week 9 result, meaning the winner gains a solid W.
- No. 3 Georgia (8-0) 42, Florida (3-4) 7: This is generous to the Gators, but I’m also leaving open the possibility they reschedule a 12th game in order to reach 6-6. UGA might’ve entered Week 9 at No. 1 if the committee had rankings already, but I’m almost certain the Dawgs will be No. 1 on Tuesday.
- No. 7 Clemson (7-1) 24, Georgia Tech (4-3) 10: GT’s still projected around 6-5 (hurricane game cancellation).
- No. 10 Oklahoma (7-1) 49, Texas Tech (4-4) 27: Texas Tech can hit 6-6 or better.
- No. 11 Oklahoma State (7-1) 50, No. 22 West Virginia (5-3) 39: I think the AP already had WVU quite a bit higher than the committee would’ve, though this still counts as a nice road win over a likely 7-5 team.
- No. 12 Washington (7-1) 44, UCLA (4-4) 23: UCLA projects around 6-6, meaning this might be UW’s best win for now ... unless it’s still Fresno State.
- Arizona (6-2) 58, No. 15 Washington State (7-2) 37: Arizona’s caught fire and now has a piece of the Pac-12 South lead, adding a quality W over WSU, just in case it’s in need of that.
- Northwestern (5-3) 39, No. 16 Michigan State (6-2) 31: Not super consequential at the moment, but not great for Notre Dame’s overall resume.
- No. 21 USC (7-2) 48, Arizona State (4-4) 17: A blowout road win over a potential surprise bowl team.
- Mississippi State (6-2) 35, Texas A&M (5-3) 14: The committee might’ve had both these teams ranked already. MSU’s certainly ranked now, maybe in the top 20.
The non-power New Year’s Six race
For this week, let’s just track undefeated and one-loss teams, though there are several two-loss teams lingering. The top mid-major champ earns an automatic NY6 bowl bid. A Playoff trip from this group seems impossible this year.
- Houston (5-3) 28, No. 17 USF (7-1) 24: To make the NY6, USF would need to win out and get a little help. The Bulls have very, very few chances at quality wins.
- No. 18 UCF (7-0) 73, FCS Austin Peay 33: Nothing to gain here, but UCF will be the committee’s top-ranked mid-major on Halloween regardless, thanks to its undefeated record and comfortable wins over Memphis, Navy, and a Maryland team that had only begun to battle the injury bug at the time.
- No. 24 Memphis (7-1) 56, Tulane (3-5) 26: Tulane will probably just miss out on a .500 record.
- Toledo (7-1) 58, Ball State (2-6) 17: Nothing for Toledo to gain here.
- FIU (5-2) 41, Marshall (6-2) 30: Marshall was a true long shot and is now out.
Probably unimportant, unless there are upsets
Nothing much to gain for the winner, other than a positive road result. Don’t lose!
- No. 5 Wisconsin (8-0) 24, Illinois (2-6) 10: UW will definitely not be No. 5 in the committee’s rankings, but that’s fine.
- No. 8 Miami (7-0) 24, North Carolina (1-8) 19: The Canes will also slip, once the committee’s top 25 comes out. Winning too many close games against lesser teams.
- No. 13 Virginia Tech (7-1) 24, Duke (4-5) 3: The slumping Blue Devils could turn it around, but they would likely have to win two upsets in three games to count as a decent W for VT.
- No. 20 Stanford (6-2) 15, Oregon State (1-7) 14: Pretty ugly win, even considering Bryce Love was out.
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