Ten weeks into a college football season, most teams are not what they were at the start. Injuries, slumps, surges, freshmen actually learning where classroom buildings are ... lots of things have changed.
THE NUMERICAL: BC (!) and Mizzou (!) have been college football’s hottest teams, while Bama’s been the best
Let’s see which teams have beaten their projections by the most over the last month.
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
That makes it difficult to rank teams. Sample size is an issue in football, but it gets especially tricky when the teams you’re grading have changed even within said small sample.
For a yearlong measure, that makes things a little bit weird. S&P+ (and other metrics) still have pretty good reads on a large number of FBS teams, but it’s hard for a single metric to keep up with so many changes.
With that in mind, I thought it would be interesting to take a gander at which teams have changed the most in recent weeks. Who is S&P+ struggling the most to keep up with?
Below is a table with four numbers for each FBS team:
- The team’s overall S&P+ ranking
- The team’s ranking, if we counted only the last four weeks of games
- The difference between a team’s projected results (per S&P+) and its actual results over the last four weeks. Example: If you were projected to win a game by 5 and you won by 10 instead, you get a plus-5.
Each team has played only three or four games in this sample, and it isn’t necessarily meant to be a predictive or statistically significant observation. (That Arkansas State ranks fourth in S&P+ over the last four weeks should emphasize that point.) But it will give us a very good idea of which teams aren’t the teams they were a few weeks ago.
College football over the last 4 weeks
Team | S&P+ Rk | Last 4 Wks Rk | Diff vs. Projection | Rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | 79 | 18 | 38.3 | 1 |
| Missouri | 48 | 5 | 25.3 | 2 |
| Arkansas State | 23 | 4 | 21.2 | 3 |
| Florida International | 77 | 22 | 19.7 | 4 |
| Central Michigan | 89 | 41 | 18.6 | 5 |
| Iowa State | 37 | 29 | 14.4 | 6 |
| Florida Atlantic | 24 | 7 | 14.0 | 7 |
| Massachusetts | 93 | 36 | 13.7 | 8 |
| California | 91 | 43 | 13.5 | 9 |
| Northwestern | 64 | 37 | 13.4 | 10 |
| Notre Dame | 7 | 8 | 13.4 | 11 |
| Iowa | 35 | 35 | 12.7 | 12 |
| Boise State | 25 | 15 | 12.6 | 13 |
| Arizona State | 83 | 65 | 12.2 | 14 |
| Wyoming | 54 | 33 | 12.2 | 15 |
| Memphis | 30 | 13 | 12.1 | 16 |
| Ohio | 28 | 16 | 12.0 | 17 |
| Toledo | 19 | 3 | 11.9 | 18 |
| Pittsburgh | 102 | 78 | 10.6 | 19 |
| UAB | 56 | 32 | 9.9 | 20 |
| Tulsa | 116 | 97 | 9.4 | 21 |
| Oregon State | 119 | 85 | 9.1 | 22 |
| Mississippi State | 16 | 9 | 9.0 | 23 |
| LSU | 29 | 28 | 8.8 | 24 |
| Texas | 60 | 71 | 8.4 | 25 |
| Syracuse | 68 | 84 | 8.4 | 26 |
| Virginia Tech | 18 | 30 | 7.5 | 27 |
| Eastern Michigan | 55 | 54 | 7.4 | 28 |
| Nevada | 120 | 105 | 7.0 | 29 |
| Fresno State | 27 | 14 | 6.8 | 30 |
| Penn State | 10 | 39 | 6.6 | 31 |
| Arizona | 42 | 45 | 5.8 | 32 |
| South Carolina | 69 | 76 | 5.7 | 33 |
| Marshall | 53 | 34 | 5.6 | 34 |
| Texas State | 113 | 77 | 5.4 | 35 |
| Alabama | 1 | 1 | 4.4 | 36 |
| Army | 58 | 47 | 4.4 | 37 |
| Rutgers | 82 | 72 | 4.2 | 38 |
| Stanford | 26 | 56 | 4.0 | 39 |
| Auburn | 9 | 19 | 3.8 | 40 |
| Oklahoma | 14 | 21 | 3.6 | 41 |
| Akron | 109 | 106 | 3.6 | 42 |
| Cincinnati | 106 | 82 | 3.4 | 43 |
| TCU | 8 | 6 | 2.9 | 44 |
| East Carolina | 125 | 110 | 2.8 | 45 |
| Georgia Tech | 50 | 89 | 2.8 | 46 |
| Georgia | 4 | 2 | 2.7 | 47 |
| Utah State | 75 | 49 | 2.6 | 48 |
| Georgia State | 107 | 61 | 2.0 | 49 |
| Rice | 126 | 118 | 1.9 | 50 |
| Temple | 87 | 23 | 1.7 | 51 |
| Tennessee | 96 | 107 | 1.1 | 52 |
| UNLV | 100 | 95 | 1.1 | 53 |
| Northern Illinois | 46 | 53 | 0.9 | 54 |
| Louisiana Tech | 84 | 88 | 0.8 | 55 |
| Michigan | 21 | 31 | 0.6 | 56 |
| West Virginia | 31 | 46 | 0.6 | 57 |
| South Alabama | 90 | 62 | 0.5 | 58 |
| Bowling Green | 112 | 75 | 0.5 | 59 |
| Illinois | 114 | 116 | 0.4 | 60 |
| BYU | 111 | 86 | 0.4 | 61 |
| Oklahoma State | 13 | 24 | 0.3 | 62 |
| Ole Miss | 65 | 44 | 0.3 | 63 |
| Old Dominion | 118 | 111 | 0.2 | 64 |
| Purdue | 38 | 59 | 0.1 | 65 |
| Air Force | 99 | 93 | 0.1 | 66 |
| San Diego State | 47 | 40 | -0.1 | 67 |
| Wake Forest | 36 | 60 | -0.8 | 68 |
| Charlotte | 124 | 120 | -0.8 | 69 |
| UTEP | 128 | 130 | -0.9 | 70 |
| NC State | 33 | 52 | -0.9 | 71 |
| USC | 17 | 25 | -1.2 | 72 |
| Wisconsin | 6 | 12 | -1.3 | 73 |
| Kansas State | 63 | 94 | -1.4 | 74 |
| Buffalo | 94 | 99 | -1.5 | 75 |
| Vanderbilt | 70 | 67 | -1.5 | 76 |
| Connecticut | 121 | 121 | -1.7 | 77 |
| Georgia Southern | 130 | 126 | -2.1 | 78 |
| Baylor | 110 | 109 | -2.1 | 79 |
| Washington | 3 | 10 | -2.6 | 80 |
| Michigan State | 22 | 42 | -2.7 | 81 |
| UL-Lafayette | 108 | 79 | -2.8 | 82 |
| New Mexico State | 71 | 70 | -3.1 | 83 |
| Texas A&M | 72 | 101 | -3.5 | 84 |
| Maryland | 97 | 98 | -3.8 | 85 |
| Hawaii | 115 | 114 | -3.9 | 86 |
| Navy | 67 | 108 | -4.0 | 87 |
| UL-Monroe | 98 | 96 | -4.0 | 88 |
| Western Kentucky | 95 | 68 | -4.2 | 89 |
| Utah | 40 | 64 | -4.2 | 90 |
| Duke | 86 | 112 | -4.3 | 91 |
| Idaho | 105 | 104 | -4.4 | 92 |
| Miami-FL | 11 | 17 | -4.7 | 93 |
| South Florida | 15 | 27 | -5.0 | 94 |
| Clemson | 12 | 38 | -5.1 | 95 |
| Minnesota | 81 | 103 | -5.1 | 96 |
| Troy | 43 | 26 | -5.4 | 97 |
| Central Florida | 5 | 11 | -5.9 | 98 |
| UCLA | 73 | 102 | -6.0 | 99 |
| North Carolina | 104 | 100 | -6.0 | 100 |
| Colorado | 76 | 91 | -6.2 | 101 |
| Indiana | 62 | 87 | -6.4 | 102 |
| Middle Tennessee | 80 | 73 | -6.7 | 103 |
| Arkansas | 92 | 113 | -6.7 | 104 |
| Nebraska | 78 | 117 | -6.9 | 105 |
| Miami-OH | 66 | 55 | -7.6 | 106 |
| SMU | 39 | 58 | -7.8 | 107 |
| Houston | 32 | 48 | -8.5 | 108 |
| Coastal Carolina | 117 | 124 | -8.6 | 109 |
| Kent State | 129 | 127 | -8.9 | 110 |
| Kentucky | 88 | 90 | -9.0 | 111 |
| Western Michigan | 61 | 63 | -9.5 | 112 |
| Louisville | 44 | 74 | -10.1 | 113 |
| UTSA | 41 | 66 | -10.4 | 114 |
| North Texas | 52 | 50 | -10.6 | 115 |
| Appalachian State | 51 | 80 | -11.4 | 116 |
| Tulane | 101 | 123 | -11.7 | 117 |
| Ohio State | 2 | 20 | -11.7 | 118 |
| Florida State | 74 | 81 | -12.1 | 119 |
| Texas Tech | 49 | 83 | -12.7 | 120 |
| Oregon | 59 | 119 | -13.8 | 121 |
| Kansas | 123 | 129 | -14.0 | 122 |
| Florida | 103 | 115 | -14.6 | 123 |
| Washington State | 20 | 57 | -15.1 | 124 |
| Southern Miss | 34 | 51 | -15.3 | 125 |
| Colorado State | 45 | 69 | -15.3 | 126 |
| San Jose State | 127 | 128 | -16.0 | 127 |
| Virginia | 57 | 92 | -17.1 | 128 |
| New Mexico | 85 | 122 | -22.4 | 129 |
| Ball State | 122 | 131 | -33.6 | 130 |
Some thoughts on the hottest teams:
Boston College suddenly discovered an offense.
The Eagles were 2-4 and averaging 16.3 points per game following a 23-10 home loss to Virginia Tech. The last three games, they’ve won a 45-42 shootout at Louisville, thumped Virginia 41-10 in Charlottesville, and waylaid Florida State 35-3.
This happened as the Eagles leaned on freshman quarterback Anthony Brown and freshman running back AJ Dillon. That’s stunning.
Brown is still battling inefficiency — he was 19-for-24 against Virginia but 11-for-37 against UL and FSU — but in the 240-pound Dillon, Steve Addazio has found his new Andre Williams. Dillon’s averaged 32 carries per game in this streak. And given extra help from the offense, the BC defense is coming off of two straight great games.
Missouri suddenly discovered its confidence.
The offense began to turn around after a bye in September. The Tigers scored a total of 30 points against South Carolina, Purdue, and Auburn but have averaged 45 over the last five.
The emergence of junior receiver Emanuel Hall (21 catches, 500 yards, four TDs in these five games) and freshman tight end Albert Okwuegbunam (six touchdown catches in the last four) has given the Tigers too many weapons for most defenses. Combine that with Drew Lock throwing one hell of a deep ball, and you’ve got Mizzou leading the nation with 13 passes of 50-plus yards.
The run game has stabilized, despite an injury to star back Damarea Crockett. Led by senior Ish Witter and freshman Larry Rountree III, Mizzou’s rushing success rate has been 50 percent or higher in each game since he went down.
The defense ... is only okay. But since getting emasculated by Georgia, Mizzou held Idaho, UConn, and Florida to 4.3 yards per play and 16.3 points per game. Opponent adjustments and all, but that could be worse. And thanks to the SEC East’s collapse, the Tigers’ odds of bowling have gone from 6 to 69 percent, per S&P+ win probabilities, in three weeks. Nice.
No one knows what it is more than Arkansas State.
In four seasons under Blake Anderson, the Red Wolves are 5-13 in non-conference play and bowl games, 2-12 against FBS competition. They’re also 24-4 in the Sun Belt. Sure, that drops a hint about quality in the SBC, but it also shows intention.
ASU is not a national title contender; therefore, non-conference play only means so much. Going 0-4 means qualifying for a bowl is difficult, but that seems to be something Anderson is willing to live with if it means using the non-conference schedule to figure out what he’s got and prepare to unleash hell.
In 2016, ASU was so bad in non-conference (which included a loss to FCS Central Arkansas) that even after winning eight of their last games, the Red Wolves finished only 80th in S&P+. This year, that hasn’t been as much of a problem. They went just 1-2 in non-con, but they nearly beat Nebraska and smoked UAPB before getting smoked by SMU. And they still found a switch to flip; they’re 4-0 in the Sun Belt, with an average margin of plus-28. S&P+ gives them a 72 percent chance of finishing either 7-1 or 8-0 in conference this year.
Of course, four weeks or 10, the same is atop the heap: Bama.
Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide refuse to succumb to the chaos that is trying to envelop this season. Where’s the rest of the S&P+ top 10, in terms of recent ups and downs?
- Overall No. 2 Ohio State (which means S&P+ would still pick Ohio State against most teams, not that Ohio State has the second-best resume; Resume S&P+ has you covered there) is No. 20 in the most recent four weeks. Not all of that is just because of the Iowa game, but ... most of it is because of the Iowa game.
- No. 3 Washington has been the 10th-best team over the last four weeks. That defense is getting increasingly ridiculous, though the offense suffered a two-week blip.
- No. 4 Georgia is the second-best team over the last four weeks. The eyeballs agree, I think.
- No. 5 UCF and No. 6 Wisconsin are No. 11 and 12, respectively, doing what they need to do against less-than-impressive slates.
- No. 7 Notre Dame and No. 8 TCU are No. 8 and 6, respectively. Chugging along.
- There’s slippage at the bottom. No. 9 Auburn had been just the 19th-best team over four weeks, though the Tigers were outstanding against Texas A&M on Saturday. And No. 10 Penn State, down from No. 3 just two weeks ago, has played like barely a top-40 team. Playing Michigan State in the rain will mess you up.
As for the team at the bottom of the list, Ball State is one step from playing walk-ons.
- Ball State’s offense, first 4 games: 30.3 points per game, 58% average offensive percentile performance
- Ball State’s offense, last 5 games: 9.2 points per game, 10% average offensive percentile performance
What happened? The two-deep got detonated.
- Starting quarterback Riley Neal went down, and his backups started falling. Four Cardinals have thrown at least 15 passes, the latest of which (Drew Plitt) is a redshirt freshman.
- Starting running back James Gilbert went down. Freshman Caleb Huntley has taken on the lion’s share.
- Leading returning receivers Corey Lacanario and Jordan Hogue, both seniors, have combined to play five games and catch 14 passes. The leading receivers are two freshmen and two sophomores.
- The starting offensive line has changed five times in nine games. BSU was supposed to return three linemen who started all 12 games last year, but one (Pat Maloney) was medically disqualified, and another (Alex Joss) tore his ACL in the opener. Starting left tackle Kaleb Slaven also just went down.
Mike Neu showed promise in his first season at BSU and seems to be recruiting well. But this team doesn’t have nearly the depth to handle this bad luck.
Big Play watch
One final nod to Bedlam. We use the term “track meet” to describe offense-friendly football games, but Oklahoma’s 62-52 win over Oklahoma State was a bit more literal than normal.
Despite both offenses slowing down in the second half, the Sooners and Cowboys combined for 1,446 yards — more than three-quarters of a mile — in just 164 snaps.
- OU had six rushes of at least 13 yards, while OSU had seven.
- OU had 14 such passes, and OSU had 13.
- OU had seven passes of 30-plus yards, and OSU had six.
- The 13 combined passes of 30-plus are more than 61 FBS teams have managed all season.
And to think, the game was basically decided by defense. OSU gave itself a chance to take the lead with a goal line interception with three minutes left, but OU forced a turnover on downs. And after scoring 76 points in the first half, they combined for a mere 38 in the second.
Elon watch
The Phoenix did it again. As mentioned in last week’s Numerical, the wildest story in Division I continued as Elon moved to 8-1 for the season with a 33-30 overtime win over Towson (replete with a huge fourth-quarter blown lead) for Homecoming. They are 6-0 in Colonial play; they were 6-34 in the CAA over the last five years.
This makes it even crazier: the Phoenix still have a negative scoring margin for the season. At 8-1! They lost 47-13 to Toledo in the season opener and have won by three, two, three, six, eight, one, five, and three points. That’s eight wins by a combined 31 and a season scoring margin of minus-3.
Is this sustainable? Of course not. Elon fumbled four times against Towson and recovered all four. They are 44th in total offense and 72nd in total defense. Even if they get by No. 16 New Hampshire on the road this week (presumably by two points), they will probably get smoked by No. 1 James Madison the week after.
But hell, man, you don’t worry about sustainability during a run like this. Worry takes away from your ability to soak it in for all it’s worth.
Gunner of the Year watch
Out of pure curiosity, I’ve been tracking special teams tackles this year. Maybe we’ll give a pretend award out to whoever has the most at the end. Winner of the award gets it named after him.
There wasn’t a lot of movement this week, but here’s your fake award watch list through 10 weeks:
- South Alabama’s Deonta Moore still leads with 11 special teams tackles, but he did not add to his total in the Jaguars’ 19-14 loss to UL-Lafayette. They needed him to: two nice Earnest Patterson punt returns set up 10 Cajun points in the tight loss.
- WMU’s Alex Grace added a tackle to his ledger; he’s now at 10.5 tackles. He’s taken part in five punt returns (average return: 7.4 yards) and seven kick returns (average return: 18.3).
- USF’s Nate Ferguson continues to hang around. He’s up to 10 ST tackles and has taken part in nine kick return stops (21.1 average) and three punt return stops (5.7).
- BGSU’s Nilijah Ballew, a familiar watch list name (and a great name in general), combining quantity and quality: he’s at nine ST tackles, and opponents are averaging 3 yards per return on his three punt stops and just 10.2 yards per return on his six kick return stops.
- EMU’s Matthew Sexton, sophomore receiver, is also up to nine ST tackles, with a punt return average of 2.2 yards and a KR average of 14.8.
See More:
