Why Ohio State should beat USC in the Cotton Bowl, big

Friday night’s Cotton Bowl between Ohio State and USC is a Playoff-caliber game that isn’t happening in the Playoff. The Buckeyes and Trojans have the most talented rosters in the country outside of Alabama’s, according to the 247Sports Team Talent Composite. They’d have made the Playoff if not for losing second games in embarrassing fashion earlier in the year (OSU to Iowa, USC to Notre Dame).

Still, the Cotton is a big game, and these are tremendous teams. Ohio State’s just a little more tremendous, and also a bad matchup for USC.

My pick: Ohio State 41, USC 24. Here’s why:

The Buckeyes are No. 2 in the country in Rushing S&P+, No. 1 in Rushing Success Rate, and No. 8 in yards per carry. They have two elite running backs in J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber, plus a credible running threat in quarterback J.T. Barrett.

The Trojans are 67th nationally in yards allowed per carry (4.4) and sit between Nos. 29 and 64 in various rush defense advanced stats. They’re average to slightly above average at stopping the run, and now they’re facing an elite foe.

USC has played four games this year against elite running offenses. In those, they gave up 6.5 yards per carry to Stanford, 8 to Notre Dame, 5.4 to Arizona, and then 4 to Stanford in a rematch. That’s a track record of not being good enough against good ground games, unless Stanford’s Bryce Love is hampered by injury throughout a rematch.

Ohio State’s rushing attack doesn’t take off days. The Buckeyes averaged at least 4.7 yards per carry in every game they played.

I’m hard-pressed to think USC can do anything about Ohio State’s run game if the Trojans don’t stick eight men in the defensive box all night. If they do try that, Barrett and his receivers are going to pick on them.

Barrett is hit or miss. He was really bad in both of Ohio State’s losses, to Oklahoma and Iowa. But he ranged from good to otherworldly in games against Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Those are all better passing defenses than USC’s, which should sell out pass D to stop the run anyway.

Maybe Ohio State’s running game will get contained. Maybe Barrett won’t get to face badly outnumbered secondaries. But both at once? Doubtful.

The Trojans are 52nd in Rushing S&P+ and 28th in yards per carry, an even 5. They’re above average, but they swing wildly between great and horrible. They’ve averaged 6.4 yards or better three times and 2.5 yards or worse twice.

Ohio State has the country’s best rush defense by S&P+ and is No. 8 in yards allowed per carry (3). In recent games the Buckeyes have held Saquon Barkley’s Penn State to a 2.6-yard average and Jonathan Taylor’s Wisconsin to a 1.9.

Trojan backs Ronald Jones II and Stephen Carr are great. But Ohio State’s default condition is to stop the run and force opposing QBs to beat them. To that point ...

This is probably his last college game because he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the country.

But so much is working against him. His defense is outmatched in every sense, so you know he’s going to have to win a track meet. He’s done that this year against teams like WMU and Arizona, but Ohio State’s offense is a lot harder to keep up with. The Buckeyes have dropped 38 points or more on nine of their 13 opponents, and all of the ones to keep them under that total are a lot better at defense than USC is.

If Darnold’s defensive teammates — ranked No. 62 in scoring — can keep Ohio State’s offense from running up the score, the Trojans will have a chance. But it’s not like this offense has been a sure thing even when its defense has been good. They struggled at Cal on a day when the Bears scored 20 points and with UCLA (23), Texas (24), Utah (27), and with Stanford in the Pac-12 title game (28).

Ohio State’s better than all of those teams.

Also, Darnold’s thrown 12 picks and fumbled 10 times, and now he’s facing a defense with like 12 potential NFL players.

Too many things have to go right for USC to pull this out.