11 takeaways from college football’s returning starters list for 2017

Thanks to huge amounts of annual roster turnover and a general variance of skill and consistency between 18-to-22-year-olds, college football remains damn near impossible to predict from year to year, beyond a few obvious things. But that, of course, is why we love it so dearly.

There’s at least one simple way to start predicting who will be good next season. That’s eyeing teams’ depth charts and picking out who returns the most.

The intrepid Phil Steele does this with his annual preview magazine, and he’s posted on his website a chart with all 130 teams’ returning starters. Attempting to use raw starter totals doesn’t always capture each team’s nuance, but it’s a good start. Our Bill Connelly has improved upon raw starter numbers with his returning production chart.

So, let’s use them both to try and find some answers to who brings back what, and what it says about the 2017 season.

Yes, it was a shock to see the Longhorns struggle recruiting-wise in the 2017 class. They only signed one of the top 20 players in the state and had their worst class of the rankings era. But when you dig deeper, Texas has a good amount of talent coming back to build on the transitional recruiting class.

There is also the fact that Texas’ team is stocked with talent as it is, and a team like Texas can afford a down class. As of last season, the Longhorns still had the No. 11 five-year recruiting ranking. Yes, that will change after this year, but the talent on the roster currently is still good enough to have the requisite blue chip ratio required to win a national championship. And most of it is coming back to Austin next season.

The Longhorns bring back 10 defensive starters and seven offensive starters, per Steele. Some are excellent, like offensive tackle Connor Williams.

The Wolverines are dead-last in Steele’s rankings, with one returning starter coming back on defense and four on offense. This is the main reason why Michigan’s signing class was the biggest of any FBS program.

Michigan lost 42 seniors from last season’s team, 17 of which were starters, and 10 of which were starters on defense. That is a lot, and the mass exodus of Michigan’s roster is a sneaky subplot of the Wolverines offseason.

Michigan’s rival, the Spartans, followed up a Playoff berth in 2015 with a 3-9 2016. That wasn’t great, but it was largely because the Spartans were devoid of returning production, ranking 122nd in the nation before 2016. That included losing quarterback Connor Cook and offensive tackle Jack Conklin.

This season, it’s the same situation, with nine returning starters back (four on offense and five on defense). The Spartans are 124th in raw returning starters and 124th in returning production.

Washington’s offense returns QB Jake Browning and seven players, but loses stud receiver John Ross. On defense, the big key will be how they get pressure on the passer, which was a strength of the unit.

They’ll have to replace LBs Psalm Wooching (who’s passing up the NFL to try a rugby career) and Joe Mathis (who was hurt for much of last season) and stud safety Budda Baker. But they’ll get LB Azeem Victor, LB Keishawn Bierria, and DL Vita Vea back.

Washington returns 50 percent of its defensive production in total, and six starters on that side of the ball. The Huskies are right about 70th in both returning metrics.

In case you missed it, the Fighting Irish went 4-8 in 2016. The gag, backed up by numbers, was that the team was much better than its record suggests.

That team’s still intact. The Irish return eight offensive starters, sans QB DeShone Kizer, and seven defensive starters. For the Irish, the defensive starters are of particular importance because of the amount of youth they trotted out on in the secondary. If the secondary can grow up, Notre Dame will be in much better shape.

Taggart left USF for Oregon after the season, replacing Mark Helfrich. Strong replaced Taggart at USF after his own departure from Texas.

USF brings back nine defensive starters and seven on offense, per Steele. The Bulls have a weak schedule, with the hardest road game looking like it’ll come against UCF. That bodes well for Strong, but he’s still got to figure the defense out.

This was a putrid unit last year, and it’s hard to be confident that returning so much of it intact will necessarily be a positive for this team. If there is a positive, it’s that the more disruptive players are amongst the returning starters. Mike linebacker Auggie Sanchez led the team in tackles (92) and sacks (six). Tackle Bruce Hector also had six sacks a year ago, and cornerback Deatrich Nichols led the team in both pass break-ups (seven) and interceptions (four).

There is no way Alabama’s, LSU’s, and Ole Miss’ 11 starters are equal.

Alabama is the recruiting titan that sports seven straight No. 1 classes, and LSU operates in a similarly elite recruiting stratosphere. Ole Miss does not, and the Rebels are going to continue to get farther away from the elite class of Hugh Freeze’s early tenure, now that a cloud of NCAA sanctions is hanging low over the program.

We can look for nuance in other areas, though. Shea Patterson is the QB of the future for the Rebels and finished 2016 after Chad Kelly got hurt. But because Patterson didn’t start a bulk of the games as QB1, he doesn’t go down as having contributed much statistically. However, he’s got experience, and he’s talented.

The fourth-time head coach doesn’t inherit an especially talented Conference USA roster, but he does have experience to work with. The Owls rank in the top four in both Steele’s and Connelly’s numbers, and they just brought in their top-ranked recruiting class ever, the best in C-USA. It includes five three-star JUCOs, meaning lots of potential for instant impact.

Five of the seven least-experienced teams in the ACC are in that division, the lovely side that produces wild swings in variance every year. Virginia Tech and North Carolina, the division’s top two finishers last season, each return only five about half their starters, and neither returns a starting QB.

Could this be Miami’s year (he writes for the umpteenth year in a row)? The Canes bring a good amount of starters back (15) but only 46 percent of total team production, which ranks 120th nationally, primarily due to the loss of QB Brad Kaaya. Georgia Tech looks to be the division’s most experienced team, but will also have a new QB.

With 20 returning starters, per Steele, Syracuse leads the country. Basically the entire defense is coming back, with 93 percent of the unit’s production returning. You should trust Dino Babers to coach up the offense, so not having to replace cogs on defense is huge.

NC State and Florida State rank highly as well, Clemson only needs to effectively replace Deshaun Watson to again be considered a contender, and Louisville returns the Heisman Trophy winner, so the ACC Atlantic again looks stacked.

The Dawgs have one of the best situations in the country, with almost their entire defense coming back (10 players) and a stud QB, Jacob Eason, heading into his sophomore year. Their 17 returning starters are tied for third-most nationally, they’re ninth in returning production, and they’ve added some instant contributors with the country’s No. 3 recruiting class. Steele also has UGA with seven returners on offense, including stud running back Nick Chubb.

Kirby Smart has a lot at his disposal, and this looks like the clear SEC East favorite.

But one of Georgia’s best starters’ status is currently in flux. Lineman Trenton Thompson is dealing with a medical condition that hospitalized him last week, and he’s taking time off from school.

Taggart’s offense should click well with the Ducks, especially considering the roster already has a lot to work with. Oregon ties for No. 3 in both sets of numbers and has its QB situation figured out, thanks to rising sophomore Justin Herbert, a 6’6 dual threat who had an impressive, seven-start run last year.