If Vegas is right about these 8 college football teams, will they fire their coaches?

Regular season win total odds are starting to trickle out from Vegas and online casinos. They are almost always lower than the expectations set by a team’s fans, but you don’t build massive casinos by being consistently wrong.

With that in mind, let’s examine eight situations where, if Vegas is right, a coach might be in trouble. These over/unders are based on win totals from BetOnline.

Tennessee was a huge disappointment in 2016, failing yet again to win a terrible SEC East despite getting over the Florida hump. The Vols have a new athletic director. Will he hitch his wagon to Butch Jones if Tennessee disappoints yet again?

Bud Elliott: If Tennessee goes 7-5 despite having easy home games against Indiana State, UMass, South Carolina, Southern Miss, and Vanderbilt, it is hard to see Jones and his staff staying. At 8-4, the conversation is tougher, and would need to include consideration of how other programs in the division are trending.

Steven Godfrey: An 8-4 Tennessee should keep Butch in place. Tennessee isn’t in the best place financially to buy another coach out. And honestly, a lot people around the program are still invested in Jones. UT is recruiting well for 2018. Also, who’s the surefire replacement? This is a more complex job than it seems. He’s got another year, at least.

Ryan Nanni: A Jones program thrives on turning non-accomplishment into accomplishment. This is how you get the Championship of Life, or Music City Bowl rings, or the commemorative flag he’ll commission for beating UMass 16-10 this year. It’s entirely possible Tennessee goes 8-4 and wins the SEC East. And that would be the most non-accomplishment accomplishment of all.

Jim Mora started his UCLA tenure at 29-11, which is a great mark for the Bruins. But he’s followed it up with 8-5, and 4-8.

Godfrey: Maybe a year ago, the structure of the argument was Mora’s track record. Now it’s about the potential of the job and the availability (and interest?) of Chip Kelly. USC could be really, really scary; they’ve fixed their internal issues and are winning quietly. Mora’s window to re-calibrate expectations in L.A. has closed. It’s doubtful he can catch up now.

Elliott: If the Bruins barely make a bowl game at 6-6, in what is presumably Josh Rosen’s last season, and with a resurgent USC now clear of sanctions, I think Mora is gone.

Alex Kirshner: Seems wasteful to have a top-10 NFL pick at QB for three years and never breach eight wins. If I did that, my bosses would be mad at me.

Kevin Sumlin has not finished better than fourth in the SEC West since his first season in 2011. The Aggies, despite signing a lot of talent, have lost five games in each of the last three seasons. And Sumlin’s AD has publicly called out A&M’s tendency to collapse late.

Godfrey: A&M is this decade’s Arkansas: A former Southwest Conference program with no compass for its place in the SEC. Sumlin will have to navigate a brutal schedule, whatever happens in Austin, and a field of would-be usurpers. The shortlist for this job is deep (Larry Fedora, Chad Morris) and it’s only June.

Elliott: If oil was $80 a barrel, like when A&M hired Sumlin, and not the current $40, I think the Aggie boosters would have already ponied up the cash for Sumlin’s buyout. Another five-loss season would be the end, right?

Jason Kirk: This schedule also sets up for another hot start and cold finish. And if (a.) Texas is better than A&M for the first time since, uh, they played each other in 2011 and (b.) SMU improves again under Morris, I don’t see any way 7-5 is enough.

Gus Malzahn took Auburn to the National Championship in 2013, narrowly losing to Florida State. Since then, his Tigers have gone 11-13 in SEC play. Auburn boosters are notoriously quick on the trigger. But 8-4, with an SEC West schedule and a road game at Clemson, might not be a slam dunk firing.

Godfrey: This is probably the year that Malzahn turns a transfer QB into a death machine and the Tigers push double-digit wins. But that’s not enough without beating Alabama. Not playing them tough or close — beating them. Malzahn could survive a 7-5 run if he beat Bama. He could fight back key boosters if they’re 10-2 and lose the Iron Bowl.

Elliott: This division is too often guilty of basing decisions on whether their current coach can best perhaps the greatest coach of all time. But four losses would likely mean losing to Alabama, at Clemson, plus two more SEC games. I think Malzahn can afford to lose three, but not four.

The Cornhuskers fired Bo Pelini after he went 9-4, 10-4, 10-4, 9-4, 10-4, 9-4, and 9-4. So far, Mike Riley has gone 6-7 and 9-4, so 6-6 would represent a serious backslide in one of the Power 5’s weakest divisions, the Big Ten West.

Nanni: How are we getting to 6-6? 4-2 early (losses to Wisconsin and Oregon) and 2-4 late (losses to Ohio State, Penn State, some Iowa/Northwestern/Minnesota combo) seems both doable and survivable. But maybe Nebraska under Riley is destined to be a pendulum, swinging more and more wildly until they go undefeated one year and 1-11 the next.

Elliott: Nebraska is recruiting very well right now. If the Cornhuskers are able to hold together a top class despite going 6-6, I think Riley is safe. If recruits abandon ship, however, maybe?

Godfrey: Scott Frost was a one-year head coach with too much loyalty to Mark Helfrich to chase the Oregon job last year. If UCF continues to improve (and they should), Nebraska will be enticed by a native son with modern offensive philosophies.

Rich Rodriguez started his Arizona tenure at 26-14, but has gone 5-13 in his last 18 games. Does Arizona need to bounce back and make a bowl for Rodriguez to keep his job?

Godfrey: RichRod is in a corner. He chased South Carolina two years ago and didn’t get it, and the AD who hired him and tolerated those flirtations is gone. If he can get to .500 this season and beat ASU, he should be fine. The question is if he still has the passion to work at building something in such a tricky place. Any replacement would have to be connected in L.A. recruiting.

Jason: And Arizona’s two biggest problems (defense and recruiting) call to mind Rodriguez’s biggest problems at Michigan.

Texas Tech’s best finish under four years of Kliff Kingsbury is a tie for fifth in the Big 12. The Red Raiders are 13-23 in conference under Kingsbury. Is 6-6 (and yet another losing conference record) enough for him?

Jason: Only thing about this one is ... where do you go afterward? Oklahoma OC Lincoln Riley, another former Texas Tech QB? TTU’s defense couldn’t be worse under him or anyone else, but why would anyone assume it’d be any better? A lack of obvious replacements could make a bowl season look better.

Godfrey: Riley is first the name to watch. He’s far more experienced than Kliff was when he was hired. Then there’s Sonny Dykes, son of TTU legend Spike Dykes, who could turn TTU into what he wanted at Cal, except with the support of a football-minded community and administration. Barring a miracle run, TTU and Kliff seem destined to move on.

At 90-42, Mark Dantonio is in the conversation for the best coach in Michigan State history. But there is a sense that the program took advantage of some down years from Michigan and Penn State, and is now on the decline with the big three in the Big Ten East all climbing. Dantonio’s 2016 team was not young, yet went just 1-8 in Big Ten play. Still, is there any chance Dantonio is done if his Spartans barely make a bowl game?

Alex: Here’s a question for Michigan State: Could you do better? I don’t really see it. It’s not like MSU is a bad job, but Dantonio has a track record that will have been interrupted for two seasons. If the Spartans think they can convince someone great to come battle with Jim Harbaugh, Urban Meyer, and James Franklin, in a fine but not incredible recruiting area, they might fire Dantonio. I doubt they think that.

Godfrey: Remember John L. Smith? This job can get really difficult really quickly. The problem is that Dantonio failed to turn 10-win seasons into elite recruiting, and now Michigan and Penn State have reorganized and lapped Sparty in talent. MSU seems destined to regress from its Rose Bowl run. How much is to be determined, and this is a difficult job to hire for.

(Otherwise, they would have surely made our list.)