Will Grier is the biggest key to Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia in Week 1

One of the fun games of 2017’s opening weekend is this regional rivalry between two dark horse contenders in their respective leagues (Sunday, Sept. 3, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC).

Virginia Tech is facing a tough start after QB Jerod Evans left early for the NFL. But due to their placement in the ACC Coastal, they have a shot at making the ACC title game again. West Virginia came up short of its first Big 12 title but now plug in Florida transfer QB Will Grier, which could have a major impact.

They should prove to be good foils for determining each other’s ceilings.

Both Tony Gibson’s West Virginia defense and Foster’s at VT are fairly unique across college football. I noted when praising Foster’s run of results that his use of robber coverage makes the Hokies unique even as they’ve evolved their 4-4 defense into a 4-2-5 comparable to what the rest of the nation uses.

VT’s use of robber is different, and it shifts around the stress points of a typical 4-2-5 structure. They’ll play two-read, a type of four-deep coverage that can become cover 2 as needed and uses the nickel (or the “whip” in Hokie parlance) and boundary corner to tend the edges (W and left C below):

But then they’ll mix in robber, which inverts the scheme and drops the corners deep while using the whip, rover, and free safety to outnumber the run:

Like most 4-2 teams, they can mix and match, playing robber to one side and the more conservative coverage to the other. Most 4-2-5 teams play robber on the boundary (the side closer to the sideline) against a single-WR side, but not in space and not against twin-receiver sets. Virginia Tech has few compunctions about playing robber against twins and daring teams to throw outside the hash marks on a cornerback like Brandon Facyson.

West Virginia was practicing against this look in its spring game, with its defense showing aptitude for the concept:

The Mountaineers back their nickel into a deep half zone while dropping the free safety toward the line (a variety of robber coverage that the Hokies will mix in) and using linebackers to take away windows. The problem is that Grier, a former four-star who threw 10 touchdowns to three picks in his half-season in the SEC, is able to hit windows outside of the hash marks. A coverage designed to force an opponent to throw outside isn’t pushing the Mountaineers too far out of their comfort zone, like it would most any other collegiate offense.

West Virginia’s spread-I offense attacks the soft spots in college defenses, combining two-back inside runs with play action and throws outside, all increasingly similar to the Art Briles veer-and-shoot offense. Lead running back Justin Crawford ran for 1,184 yards last year at 7.3 yards per carry while paired with Skyler Howard at QB. Grier could punish teams for loading up to stop Crawford.

The battle between Grier’s laser beams and an experienced and athletic Hokie secondary will be the heavyweight bout. However, even if Grier can force the Hokies to play conservative coverages, the Virginia Tech front six may still handle the Mountaineer run game without the help of a downhill safety.

They faced a similar challenge in Syracuse a year ago:

Linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and Andrew Motuapuaka return, and at 6’4, 236 and 6’, 235, are bigger and more explosive than your typical Big 12 linebacker. They are veterans who compiled over 200 combined tackles a year ago. Syracuse beat them, but this required a 24-carry performance by QB Eric Dungey that we aren’t going to see Grier replicate.

The Hokies hope they can keep the score down with their offense likely in the hands of redshirt freshman QB Josh Jackson.

Justin Fuente is a maestro when it comes to developing QBs and has worked with freshmen before, such as Paxton Lynch and Andy Dalton. The trick is that TCU only went 8-5 as a Mountain West team that year and Memphis went 3-9 in year one. If Jackson follows the Fuente model, he’ll have a rocky Year 1 before torching the ACC in 2018.

A peek at Jackson’s high school highlights reveals a player with all the right skills for this system.

He’s a strong inside runner, effective enough to operate Fuente’s QB power schemes, and he has a strong arm that will allow him to make the most of VT’s widely spaced receivers.

West Virginia is not a fun first test, though, and the Mountaineers’ all-or-nothing philosophy is engineered to take down one-dimensional offenses. Their 3-3-5 takes advantage of having eight athletes standing up and moves them around based on the situation. They’re typically solid about disguising where they’re going.

They know how to attack a young QB in a spread offense.

Unlike the Hokies, the Mountaineers will be in rebuild mode on defense, with top cornerback Rasul Douglas (eight interceptions last year), leading tackler Justin Arndt, and the entire DL moving on.

Once again, the advantage is if Virginia Tech can push the Mountaineers around up front to negate the skill and experience advantages on the perimeter. The Hokies haven’t been an imposing running team in a long time, but this OL returns three senior starters while plugging in a former blue-chipper at left tackle in Yosuah Nijman. They need to maul an undersized front like West Virginia’s, or else the Mountaineers will outnumber their young QB.

Dana Holgorsen has a system up and running, and the hope is that by finally plugging in a top QB, they can really take off.

Fuente is in the early stages of developing his QB and will need his DC to continue to shore things up.

That advantage makes this a chance for West Virginia to make an early statement.