Updated bowl projections, where it’s the Big Ten vs. the Pac-12 for Playoff spot No. 4

With four weeks in the books, college football’s bowl picture has some rough outlines to it. We have three clear College Football Playoff favorites, and we know plenty of teams that are already out of the running.

Below are some predictions for every bowl game, from the New Orleans Bowl through the National Championship. These are based on a board of picks for every game of the FBS season, updated after Week 4. I might have a spot or two right! We’ll try again next week, and maybe I’ll have like three or four spots right by then!

An unchanged Playoff four, for now. Alabama’s looking like a true No. 1, but Clemson and Oklahoma have beaten better teams so far, despite each being challenged by underdogs in Week 4.

The Big Ten vs. the Pac-12 remains the hard part, with Penn State, Wisconsin, maybe Michigan, and maybe Ohio State looking viable on one side, plus USC and Washington on the other. Sticking with the Badgers for one more week, as Iowa demonstrated Penn State can be slowed down, and Wisconsin might have the friendliest schedule in this group.

This year, the Orange will take the top ACC team left over and, unless Notre Dame finishes 11-1 or so, the top Big Ten/SEC team left over.

Swapping San Diego State in for USF as the mid-major autobid. USF is far more talented than its competition, but just does not have many chances to rack up quality wins. Meanwhile, both of SDSU’s wins over Pac-12 teams (Stanford and Arizona State) gained quality on Saturday.

Also moving TCU up into this group after the Frogs won in Stillwater, and swapping Virginia Tech in for Florida State.

The other games in this group will be made up of the committee’s top at-larges, arranged to give us at least one really big game. This Peach would qualify.

Projected eligible teams I couldn’t find spots for this time: Bowling Green, CMU, and Old Dominion.