The 21 best bets for Week 5 of college football

All wagers at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.

Season record: 28-29.

I had a strong Week 4, going 13-8. My spread picks were won by margins of 17, 23.5, 1, 41.5, 19, 31.5, 16.5, 9.5, 7.5, 11, 19, 3, and 18 points. My losses were by 20.5, 20, 28.5, 7, 2.5, 19, 1, and 3.5 points.

I did lose all three plays where I picked on over/unders. My UCLA-Stanford under was a bad wager I deserved to lose. Stanford’s offense covered the number by itself despite rotating quarterbacks. But the TCU at Oklahoma State under was, in my opinion, a good play. I lost it by four points, mostly due to the field position created by turnovers. But the one I really could not see coming was losing the over in the UCF-Maryland game. Why did the play lose? Because Maryland, after an injury, was forced to play with its No. 3 quarterback. Unsurprisingly, the No. 3 QB (who’s sort of the No. 4) for a team like Maryland wasn’t good. Rats.

If last week was defined by ranked teams laying big points on the road, this week features a lesser version: small road favorites. This is certainly a danger zone.

Picks below are in bold.

1. Miami at Duke Under 56.5: Duke is playing some defense this year and has not faced a front like Miami’s. While I don’t trust the Hurricanes’ secondary, Miami’s offense has also not seen a pressure defense like Duke’s.

2. Nebraska at Illinois +7: Illinois is surprisingly competent. Nebraska has looked like a team that will struggle to make a bowl.

I started the week 1-1, with the Miami under hitting easily, and Illinois failing to score a touchdown. Coming off a bye week, it was disappointing to see the Illini go from throwing for 287 yards against USF, to throwing for only 106 against Nebraska. The Cornhuskers created some explosive plays and scored 28 points.

3. Clemson at Virginia Tech Under 51: Kelly Bryant has already posted QB ratings of 115 and 95 this season and now must head on the road to face a Bud Foster defense. Virginia Tech’s QB is redshirt freshman Josh Jackson.

4. Mississippi State at Auburn -9: I think Auburn is a top-10 team with a nasty defense and an offense that is coming around. Mississippi State got beat up by Georgia.

5. Arizona State +17.5 at Stanford: I really, really did not want to take the Sun Devils again this week after winning on them against Oregon. Stanford usually has their number. But then I saw that the number was this high, and I had to pull the trigger.

6. NIU +11 at San Diego State: SDSU is a good team, but 11 points just feels off. Defense travels, and the Huskies have one.

7. North Carolina +10 at Georgia Tech: In a game that should be high-scoring, I am taking the points.

8. Ole Miss at Alabama -27.5: Ole Miss cannot run the football at all. Its run defense is also not impressive. While chucking it around against Alabama is sometimes a good recipe, Ole Miss’ offense simply hasn’t looked like it can score on this defense.

9. Akron -2.5 at Bowling Green: Bowling Green’s defense is one of the worst in all of college football. Changing QBs, as the Falcons did this week, is not going to fix that.

10. Marshall +4.5 at Cincinnati: Marshall put up an impressive amount of yards against NC State, which has a good defense. Cincinnati does not have a good defense.

11. Maryland at Minnesota -12: Minnesota is coming off a bye week, and Maryland’s QB situation was just terrible against UCF last week. This could be a boat race.

12. Oklahoma State -9 at Texas Tech: Oklahoma State put up almost seven yards per play last week against TCU in the loss. I expect the Cowboys to be too much for the Red Raiders.

13. Cal at Oregon -13: I have successfully bet on Cal several times already this season. Cal is competent. But the value on Cal might now be gone, and Oregon will be hungry to bounce back from the egg laid in Tempe last week.

14. Troy +21 at LSU: This is a simple lookahead spot for LSU, with the revenge game at Florida on deck.

15. Florida State -7 at Wake Forest: I successfully bet against Florida State last week in this column, but Wake Forest does not have the talent of NC State.

16. San Jose State at UNLV -12.5: UNLV has really bounced back since losing to FCS team Howard in the opener.

17. Northwestern +15 at Wisconsin: Northwestern has bounced back quite well since being demolished by Duke.

18. Memphis +4 at UCF: UCF crushing a Big Ten team last week, albeit a Big Ten team running out of QBs, inflates this line a bit too much.

19. Colorado +7.5 at UCLA: UCLA’s rushing defense is averaging 308 yards allowed per game. Colorado does not throw the ball well, but it might not have to.

20. Air Force at New Mexico (PK): Bob Davie has done well against Air Force, and the Falcons have a game with Navy on deck.

21. Vanderbilt +10 at Florida: Vanderbilt was crushed by Alabama, true, but it also beat Kansas State. Florida so far has defeated two wildly undisciplined teams. Vanderbilt is not all that talented, but it is disciplined. UF also has LSU on deck.