Friday night, Utah State went into BYU and defeated the Cougars, 45-20. Yeah, the same BYU team that beat then-No. 6 Wisconsin in September, which is still first in the Big Ten West and currently 16th in the nation. The Badgers were 23.5-point favorites at home, and the loss marked their first non-conference home loss since 2003.
Uhh, Utah State won at BYU, which won at Wisconsin? I can explain
The Aggies have been quietly good all season.
Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports
And now that BYU team got crushed at home by a Mountain West team?
Huh?
This Utah State team has been quietly very good all season.
During Week 1 on the road, the Aggies nearly knocked off Michigan State, losing on a late touchdown. Utah State has been undefeated since, blowing out New Mexico State, hammering Tennessee Tech, and beating Air Force last week.
If you look at the S&P+ ratings, Utah State looking this good on Friday night isn’t really all that surprising. There, the Aggies ranked No. 40 in the country entering Friday, 38 spots ahead of BYU.
According to S&P+’s postgame win expectancy (a method that looks at a game’s stats and determines how frequently a team usually would’ve won such a game), the Aggies had a 99-plus percent percent chance to win in each of Utah State’s last three games, implying total dominance against lesser opponents.
And BYU’s been really shaky, that one big win at Wisconsin aside.
BYU has lost to a mediocre Cal and gotten blasted by Washington, only winning two FBS games by a total of eight points.
So Utah State winning at BYU wasn’t a shocker, even if few predicted it to be a total blowout.
The Cougars only opened the week as three-point favorites against the Aggies, implying Utah State would’ve been favored in Logan, once you account for home-field advantage. That wasn’t enough for gamblers, who took the spread all the way down to a pick ‘em by kickoff.
Utah State’s really off to one hell of a start, and it should continue.
The 4-1 mark entering early October is the best yet for Aggies head coach Matt Wells, who is 37-33 through three seasons at Utah State. Their schedule now looks pretty favorable, considering how they’re playing. S&P+ has Utah State with an 84 percent average win probability for its next six games, all building toward the road finale at Boise State.
The Aggies are given a 34 percent chance of winning that one. Last season, the Broncos beat the Aggies 41-14.
But even if Utah State loses to Boise, we could be looking at nine- or 10-win team here, which would set the Aggies up nicely come bowl season.
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