No two-loss team has made the College Football Playoff in the event’s first four years of existence. If someone only looked at the resumes of the 16 teams to make the field so far, it’d be easy to think there’s a hard and fast maximum of one loss for Playoff contenders.
2018 giving us the first 2-loss Playoff team would likely take some REAL chaos
The odds are long, but here’s how it would have to work.
Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images
Of course, that’s not really a rule. The Playoff selection committee can do whatever it wants. And even when the sport only had a two-team BCS Championship instead of a four-team Playoff, one two-loss team managed to sneak in: LSU in 2007.
2007 was the wildest season in college football history. But now that the size of the championship event has doubled, things don’t have to be that weird for a two-loss team to get a crack at the end of the year. Might it happen in 2018?
2017 would’ve had a two-loss Playoff team if one game had gone differently. We can take some lessons from that.
Auburn was 10-2 and No. 2 in the committee rankings when it entered the SEC Championship Game against Georgia. The Tigers had a 100 percent chance of making the field if they won that game. They didn’t, and one-loss UGA made it instead.
Auburn’s position was unique. The Tigers had two of the most impressive wins any team had all year, over top-five Georgia and Alabama teams, and appeared to be on fire.
2017 Auburn is proof the Playoff is open to two-loss teams if the circumstances are right. But what, exactly, are those circumstances?
One very helpful trait, based on the past: being a Power 5 champion.
Other than that, the team probably needs to have at least one and maybe more incredible wins. We’re talking about ending the unbeaten seasons of national title contenders, not about pulling off an exciting win at No. 23 Mississippi State, or whatever.
The other crucial thing is that there can’t be a scarcity of spots. It sounds basic to say, but if there are four one-loss Power 5 champs, there’s just no room for anyone with two losses.
When Auburn got to the doorstep in 2017, there were only three one-loss power conference champs, as both the Big Ten’s Ohio State and the Pac-12’s USC had lost twice. Both lacked Auburn’s high-powered wins, which is why they weren’t in the same position. (It was not an ESPN/SEC conspiracy, despite what some Ohio State fans thought.)
2018 is a weird-year. One the one hand, there are some potential two-loss Power 5 champs. On the other, there might be a scarcity of Playoff spots.
One source of the potential shortage is Notre Dame. The Irish are absolutely making the field if they go 12-0, despite not having a conference title game to play. They’d remain in the conversation even if they lost one of their last four games. They only have a 36 percent chance of reaching 12-0, according to S&P+ projections, but given the possibility they make the field at 11-1, it’s probably best to consider them at least a 50/50 bet to get in.
If Notre Dame’s taking up one spot, it’s easy to see all two-loss teams getting crowded out, no matter what else happens. If the Power 5 leagues produce just three one-loss champions, that’s the whole field right there. If there are just two one-loss P5 champs, imagine if Alabama somehow loses to LSU and finishes second in the SEC West at 11-1. The Tide could still make the Playoff through a back door, as they did in ‘17.
After Week 9, the Power 5 had four two-loss teams still in conference races, plus a few one-loss teams poised to become two-loss teams.
Florida, the committee’s top-ranked two-loss team, wouldn’t fit, because the Georgia-Kentucky winner will win the SEC East.
Five still in league hunts:
- Virginia would have a win against Clemson, and that’d pretty much be it. If that were Clemson’s only loss (which is likely), the Tigers would get in ahead of the Hoos anyway. If Clemson somehow lost before then, too, then things would get interesting. Here’s everything it might take to get Virginia in.
- Boston College would have to win out and beat Clemson, then win the ACC. BC would have a stronger case than a hypothetical ACC champ UVA, but the committee might just take Clemson anyway.
- Utah would fit the bill, but it’s possible the Utes win the Pac-12 with as few as one win against teams ranked in the Selection Sunday top 25.
- Iowa would have a win against Ohio State or Michigan, and that’d probably be it in the way of really big wins. Maybe Wisconsin or Northwestern would be a ranked win, but the Hawkeyes wouldn’t be in great shape. They have some real work to do to win the Big Ten West right now.
- Texas is the most interesting. If the Longhorns won the Big 12, that’d probably mean they had two wins against Oklahoma, plus a win against a ranked West Virginia. It’s far from likely, but Texas at least has a path you could see a team taking.
Additionally, Washington State could become a two-loss Power 5 champ, as could a team like WVU or Oklahoma. It’s fine to rule them out as answers to this question.
Basically, for 2018 to be the year, a bunch of weird stuff has to happen. Like, a metric ton of chaos has to strike multiple conferences at once.
Notre Dame probably has to trip up at least once, maybe twice. The ACC and/or Big 12 need to descend into pandemonium, and even if all that happens and Iowa wins the Big Ten West and then beats Ohio State or Michigan, and Alabama doesn’t let some other SEC team earn a Playoff spot, there’s no promise a two-loss team makes it.
On the other hand, Virginia winning the ACC outright would leave all of us in uncharted waters. We really have no idea what the Playoff committee would do in such a case, and it probably doesn’t matter, because by that time, the sun will have melted the Earth.
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