The Apple Cup has huge stakes again ... just not the way we thought

The Apple Cup has come a long way this millennium. Washington went 17-52 from 2004-2009. Washington State went 23-48 in the same span. 2008 featured both teams truly in the valley, when one-win Wazzu met winless Washington in the Crapple Cup.

Fast forward to 2018 and a game that’s gained in importance each year features one of its biggest matchups ever. The winner will go to the Pac-12 Championship Game, which means at least a Rose Bowl berth is close at hand. One team has an outside shot at a Playoff bid and has been the league’s only hope at that for a while.

The team that can fulfill the latter part of that equation is the shocker, because 10-1 Washington State, not Washington, is the only team that could take the Pac-12 to the Playoff.

If you’ll remember, Washington was supposed to be the team to beat in the Pac-12. They were No. 6 in the preseason AP Poll, while Washington State was picked fifth in just the Pac-12 North. It wasn’t outlandish to believe that Mike Leach might have been fired by this point in the season.

But the Huskies lost midway through the season, and the Cougars have just kept on rolling. UW’s two losses in three games to Oregon and Cal put them squarely outside of the Playoff conversation and threatened to knock them out of the division race as well. They got things together, and despite the struggles, UW is 10th in the S&P+ rankings while Wazzu is 20th.

Washington State’s built its success with offense (this is a Leach team after all). They’re doing it with what may be the best QB Leach has had in Pullman. And he showed up right before the season started.

Minshew didn’t arrive in Pullman until August, yet he’s executing the Leach air raid at a higher level than Falk did with three years of experience.

Part of the reason is that Minshew has the equivalent of nearly three years of starting experience within the system between his year at Northwest Community College and two years of sporadic duties at ECU. Minshew also spent the spring working with Hal Mumme, Leach’s fellow chief air raid innovator. Then there were the three years he spent as the starting QB for Brandon High School near Jackson, Mississippi.

The defense has still been good enough to complement Leach’s air raid.

It turns out WSU’s rise wasn’t just because Alex Grinch was an impressive defensive coordinator or players like Hercules Mata’afa were ascendent talents at the right time. Both left, and the team actually got better. The Cougars haven’t tripped up this year, and they’re three points away from being undefeated. Their defense is again a top-50 unit with a better offense. The Cougars are a more complete team.

Last year was a huge WSU disappointment as the Huskies dominated the game, allowing only three scoring opportunities (drives inside the 40-yard line) on 13 possessions to the Cougs. Meanwhile on offense, UW ran all over the place to the tune of 328 yards on the ground.

Washington will have to find a way to limit Minshew with great defense — which despite UW’s struggles overall, has still been impressive this season — and pull out a win on the Palouse.

If everything holds through the next two weekends and Wazzu keeps winning, then the Cougs will have to contend with this to make the Playoff:

In that scenario, there’ll be at least one conference as the odd one out, and maybe two. With an S&P+ strength of schedule ranking at No. 81, Washington State and the Pac-12 would likely be out.

Regardless, Washington State has to finish the drill against Washington to cement this season as a legitimate step forward and get into that debate, with the Rose Bowl as an amazing consolation prize. They’re 60 minutes away from usurping their rival as Pac-12 North champion, with bigger goals still ahead.

Just like we thought before the season.