Oklahoma’s schedule strength will top Ohio State’s, but that’s not the only factor

The College Football Playoff field of four teams will be set on Sunday. A couple teams who have a real shot of making it in are No. 5 Oklahoma and No. 6 Ohio State.

That would be strength of schedule. Here’s what committee chairperson Robert Mullens said after Tuesday night’s rankings revealed the Sooners remain ahead overall:

“Oklahoma has a little bit stronger schedule than Ohio State at this point,” Mullens said on ESPN.

The committee uses different metrics to measure strength of schedule and a variety of other factors. While we don’t know exactly which numbers the committee uses, we do know ESPN’s metrics have usually been pretty close to committee results, and OU ranks higher in strength of schedule there, 34th to 48th. A deeper look shows just how close these two are in several categories, but affirms the committee’s view on SOS:

SOS is another stated committee tiebreaker. There are a million ways to judge it. Let’s use a couple that incorporate how each team performed, but in different ways.

Here’s Resume S&P+, which gauges how the average Playoff-worthy team would’ve likely fared against each schedule:

-Ohio State: No. 9

-Oklahoma: No. 8

And here’s CPI, a raw win percentage metric similar to basketball’s RPI:

-Ohio State: No. 8

-Oklahoma: No. 6 (plus OU beating Texas next week would count for more than OSU beating Northwestern)

However the committee judges SOS, Oklahoma’s will look even better after Championship Saturday — the Sooners play No. 14 Texas, with Ohio State getting No. 21 Northwestern.

It’s just one of many factors the committee considers. Winning your conference and playing in a championship game helps, but it’s not a requirement. The committee’s goal is to put the four best teams into the Playoff, period.

So if the committee decides Ohio State’s full season has been more impressive than Oklahoma’s, the Buckeyes could jump OU regardless of the Sooners’ superior overall schedule.

For example, four years ago, the Buckeyes blew out Wisconsin in Indianapolis, while the Big 12 co-champions TCU and Baylor finished their regular season schedules. To the committee, the Buckeyes’ blowing out 10-2 Wisconsin was worth a jump over TCU and Baylor, who defeated Iowa State and Kansas State, respectively.

So if Oklahoma ekes past Texas as Ohio State blows out Northwestern, the committee will have a big decision.

Northwestern isn’t all that good, but it also hasn’t been blown out all season — the most it has lost by was 14 points, to Duke and Wisconsin. Ohio State is currently a 14.5-point favorite, so if that ends up being a three-plus score game, that could look better than, say, a close OU victory.

As far as the Sooners’ outlook goes, the Longhorns won the first matchup 48-45, but the Sooners are an 8-point favorite this week. OU’s offense has been dominating all season, but its defense continues to struggle.

While it’s unlikely OU’s defense will drastically get better on Saturday, it’s something the committee will be keeping an eye on against Texas. In the past, the committee has said it likes “balanced” teams without big weaknesses.

“When you look at the numbers, while their defense has been a challenge, their offense has been superior,” Mullens said on Tuesday evening. “They find a way to win the games based on the talent that they have. That lines up that the offense carries them.”

Of course, Ohio State’s defense has struggled as well. Mullens described the Buckeye offense as “carrying” that team, too.

The committee isn’t just judging Saturday’s results — its job is to take into account how each of the four final teams have performed all season long, which includes Championship Saturday’s results. Oklahoma will finish with the decisive lead in one important thing the committee considers, though.