Why Dan Mullen made so much sense for the Florida Gators in 2018

The Florida Gators hired Dan Mullen as coach for the 2018 season, after the Jim McElwain tenure crashed and burned over three weeks in the fall of 2017.

Mullen’s name was mentioned almost immediately as a likely replacement for McElwain. He’d spent the last nine years at Mississippi State, most of those under current Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin. Prior to his MSU hiring, he spent four seasons at Florida on Urban Meyer’s staff as a national title-winning offensive coordinator. In Starkville, he flourished, giving the Bulldogs seven winning seasons and five bowl victories.

Despite rumors of Stricklin meeting with big offensive names like Chip Kelly, Scott Frost, and Willie Taggart, it made sense when the Gators matched with Mullen.

As Bill Connelly pointed out, having a guy with major head coaching experience, unlike the past Will Muschamp and Jim McElwain hires, was key:

Mullen has nine years of not only P5 head coaching experience, but SEC head coaching experience.

And he led historical overachievement at Mississippi State. In the 50 years before his arrival, MSU’s average percentile rating was 57 percent. In his nine seasons, it was 75.4 percent. His Bulldogs finished ranked in the AP top 20 three times and won six bowls. He raised the bar significantly in Starkville.

Any further context you want to add is even friendlier. You know, like how how Florida’s offense had an average Off. S&P+ ranking of fifth during his last three years as OC in Gainesville (2006-08) and has had an average ranking of 65.4 since.

On paper, this is very likely to be at least a good hire for Florida. I would be floored if the Gators weren’t at least top-15 good soon. (They’ve only hit that mark twice in the last seven years.) On the field, this was a nearly risk-free hire.

It also helps that he was on Meyer’s staff for the Gators’ last two titles in 2006 and 2008. His UF offenses averaged 29.7 points and 396.1 yards per game.

The Gators haven’t had top-notch QB play since Tebow left Gainesville in 2009. Now Mullen will bring back a lot of the elements of those old offenses:

Mullen has a reputation as a QB guru, the ideal reputation to have in today’s job market. Mullen’s Bulldogs didn’t really start to put that together until 2013, when they plugged in a young Dak Prescott and, over the two following years, landed two of the five top-15 AP Poll finishes in school history. Then replaced him with Nick Fitzgerald, a decent passer who’s run for 2,359 yards and 19 TDs in the last two seasons.

This scheme is sort of like blending two seemingly contradictory schools of offense: a Bill Snyder Wildcat and Mike Leach’s air raid. Under Prescott and Fitzgerald the last four seasons, the QB has averaged 380 pass attempts and 182 rushing attempts and led the team in carries every year save for 2017, when Aeris Williams got 224 to Fitzgerald’s 162.

Mullen is on record explaining that he’ll adapt his offense to different skill sets at QB, as he looks to sell fans who are concerned about the lack of dual-threats on the roster.

Under Mullen, Prescott became a first-round draft pick and Fitzgerald had a breakout season in 2016. Prescott and Fitzgerald were both former three-star recruits, the latter being virtually unknown to most school during his recruitment.

The Gators didn’t have a smooth offseason. Several players were involved in an episode that reportedly included a frying pan wielded as a weapon and an AR-15 in the backseat of a car. Mullen got joked on for emphasizing a no-weapons policy that can’t ban guns.

But Mullen’s football track record is strong, and it’s a strong fit for what Florida needs (and Florida fans want) right now. At a job with lots of resources, that’s a good start.