No. 9 Auburn was a 30-point favorite at home against Arkansas on Saturday, or maybe a 28.5- or 29.5- point favorite if you were betting at the right sportsbook.
Auburn got out-gained by Arkansas and still covered a 30-point spread
The box score makes little sense, but good for you if you put money against Chad Morris’ team.
John Reed-USA TODAY Sports
That’s a pretty big spread for an SEC game not involving Alabama, but the Tigers seem pretty good, and the Hogs very much do not. Oddsmakers and bettors figured Auburn would play well enough to challenge more than a four-touchdown spread at home.
Auburn covered, all right, despite getting out-gained.
The final score was 34-3.
The total yardage was 290 for Arkansas, 225 for Auburn. I don’t know exactly where this ranks in the pantheon of weird spread coverings, but I do feel comfortable adding it to the long list of signs that 2018 will not be Arkansas’ year.
If you didn’t watch this game (and it’s probably good for you if you didn’t), it doesn’t make a ton of sense how Auburn won by 31.
At least not from the box score.
Total offense is a junk stat, but Arkansas had 4.1 yards per play to Auburn’s 3.9. The Razorbacks coughed up two turnovers to Auburn’s none, but Auburn only scored 3 points off them. One of them did end a drive at the Auburn 28, likely costing Arkansas points.
Auburn’s scoring drives were really short, which helped make it possible for the Tigers win such a blowout without getting that many yards.
The drive charts tell a clearer story. Auburn’s scoring drives looked like this:
- Seven plays, 27 yards, touchdown
- Four plays, 1 yard, field goal
- Four plays, 9 yards, touchdown
- A kickoff return touchdown
- Eight plays, 72 yards, touchdown
- Four plays, 10 yards, field goal
In a perverse, roundabout way, this might have been Arkansas’ most impressive result of the season.
Losing an 18-point lead at a bad Colorado State team that might well go on to a 1-11 year in which the only win is over Arkansas? Not good. Getting routed at home by North Texas, a really good Group of 5 team but still a Group of 5 team? Also not good.
Getting routed at Auburn, but at least playing OK and not getting beaten quite as badly as the final score indicates? Not good, but it could be and has been a lot worse.
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