Michigan vs. Alabama predictions: The case for each team winning College Football Playoff matchup

The No. 1 Michigan Wolverines (13-0) will face the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) on New Year’s Day at the Rose Bowl, with the winner advancing to the National Championship.

A close game is anticipated and prognosticators have their reasons why each team will surely win. With that in mind let’s take a look and why Michigan will beat Alabama, and why they won’t.

J.J. McCarthy was among the best quarterbacks in the nation in 2023, and he’ll have to put together a memorable performance against Alabama. McCarthy finished 10th for the Heisman after passing for 2,630 yards, 19 touchdowns and just four interceptions, along with 146 yards on the ground and three rushing scores.

McCarthy ranks No. 2 in the nation in completion percentage (74.2), No. 3 in ESPN’s Total QBR (89.3) and No. 7 in passing efficiency (170.25). Michigan is a balanced offense and doesn’t throw it as much as most schools, thus McCarthy’s stats aren’t flashy. However, McCarthy can still hurt defenses with his legs and his ability to throw consistently accurate balls to any quadrant of the field.

Michigan ranks No. 11 in time of possession and loves to chew the clock and control tempo. The run game will keep Alabama’s increasingly potent offense off the field and potentially wear down the Crimson Tide defense. Michigan running back Blake Corum leads the nation in rushing touchdowns with 24 and has 1,028 rushing yards on the season.

Michigan ranks just No. 60 in rushing offense, but that ranking doesn’t tell the full story. The Michigan rushing attack has proven it can get the job done when things matter the most. Against Penn State, a 24-15 Michigan win, the Wolverines ran the ball for the final 32 consecutive snaps of the game. Michigan is always willing to play smash mouth football, and its mentality against Alabama won’t be any different.

Michigan’s defense has been suffocating all season long and has continuously answered the bell. They play well in every facet — Michigan ranks No. 1 in scoring defense, No. 1 in defensive touchdowns, No. 2 in total defense, No. 2 in passing yards allowed, No. 2 in first downs allowed, No. 5 in rushing defense, and No. 6 in interceptions. In comparison and while Alabama’s offense has improved mightily since September, they still just rank No. 53 in total offense. On paper, the advantage goes to the Wolverines, but rankings won’t mean much after the opening kickoff.

Alabama is making its FBS-leading eighth College Football Playoff appearance and has won two national championships in the CFP era. Michigan is making its third consecutive CFP but have lost in the semifinals the past two years and haven’t won a bowl game since the 2016 Citrus Bowl.

Jim Harbaugh is 1-6 in bowls as Michigan’s head coach while Alabama head coach Nick Saban has won seven national championships in his career and has a 9-4 record in CFP games. Saban is also 1-0 against Harbaugh, beating Michigan, 35-16, in the 2020 Citrus Bowl. Saban seems to have the secret sauce to winning it all, and that’s hard to ignore.

Quarterback Jalen Milroe, who finished No. 6 in Heisman voting, will be the most dangerous quarterback Michigan will have faced this season. Milroe completed 65 percent of his passes for 2,718 yards, 23 touchdowns and six interceptions. Milroe can kill a team launching balls down the field. He also gashes defenses running the ball, as Milroe had 468 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. It will be a long day for the Wolverines if they can’t keep Milroe in the pocket or if they allow him too much time to throw.

Michigan has faced top-tier defenses this season in Iowa, Penn State and Ohio State, but Alabama’s defense might be the fastest of the bunch. That could cause problems for McCarthy, who threw two pick-sixes in the CFP last year in Michigan’s 51-45 loss to TCU. Alabama ranks No. 18 in total defense (313.3 yards allowed per game), No. 17 in scoring defense (18.4 points per game), and No. 23 in passing defense (188.8). Michigan ranks No. 68 in total offense.