Picks for College Football Playoff quarterfinal games, with 1 big upset prediction

College football’s inaugural 12-team playoff is down to the final eight teams.

As an aside, are we going with Elite Eight for this? We have seen a passing reference or two to that term, borrowed from the NCAA basketball tournament, but it truly has yet to stick. But we digress ...

But tonight the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff get underway, with No. 6 Penn State taking on No. 3 Boise State in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl. Three more games come our way on New Year’s Day, beginning with the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl between No. 5 Texas and No. 4 Arizona State, followed by the Rose Bowl between No. 8 Ohio State and No. 1 Oregon. The games conclude with the Allstate Sugar Bowl between No. 7 Notre Dame and No. 2 Georgia.

We have already ranked the teams, but now it is time to make some picks.

JP: Penn State
Mark: Penn State

Mark: JP, we seem to be of the same mind here. Is the thinking that Penn State’s defense — and run defense in particular — is going to be too much for Ashton Jeanty and Boise State to overcome, or do you suddenly have a ton of faith in Drew Allar and company?

JP: The way I see it is simple: if Ashton Jeanty runs wild but Drew Allar and the Penn State offense can match Boise score for score, I think the Nittany Lions will pull out a close victory. Bronco EDGEs Jayden Virgin-Morgan and Ahmed Hassanein will need to play huge roles on a defense that finished second in the nation in sacks. So if Allar can handle the pressure well, the Nittany Lions win. If not, this could be an upset for the ages.

Mark: Another problem for Boise State when it comes to Allar is their secondary is great on the outside, but weaker up the middle. That is where Allar has shined this year, attacking between the numbers. Tyler Warren could have a big game as well.

JP: Texas
Mark: Texas

JP: I love Arizona State’s offense, and RB Cam Skattebo is one of those guys that is must-see every time he touches the ball. I just worry about their sustainability going against a Texas defense that gives up the 11th-least Yards per Carry and is first in Defensive EPA per play allowed against the run. I think Sun Devil QB Sam Leavitt’s legs will have to play a huge role, but if they can’t jump on Texas early, it’ll be all Longhorns.

Mark: So far we are of a similar mind. To me Arizona State was one of the season’s great stories, going from being picked to finish dead last in the Big-12 to winning the Big-12 Conference Championship Game and securing a first-round bye.

But Texas looked good last week against Clemson. Yes we are probably all waiting for the wheels to come off for the Longhorns but I do not think that happens this week, and it seems you do not either.

JP: Ohio State
Mark: Oregon

Mark: Okay now we are having some fun.

At the outset, a Rose Bowl game between Oregon and Ohio State just feels ... right.

As for your pick JP, is this just because the team across from Ohio State is not wearing maize and blue?

JP: That’s right folks, I’m ready to be wrong about Ohio State again.

I picked Tennessee to win their Round 1 matchup because of how much they’d been reeling after the Michigan loss, and that proved to be...well...unwise. I’m picking Ohio State in this game because it’s REALLY hard to beat a team twice. We saw it three years ago when Alabama beat Georgia in the SEC Title Game, then Georgia beat the Tide in the national championship. Alabama and LSU played that iconic 9-6 game in 2011 where the Tigers won, but the Crimson Tide won the championship by beating them 21-0. If I’m going off of trends, I think the Buckeyes will be ready for a neutral site game against the Ducks, and Ryan Day gets the big game victory he needed.

Mark: For me, I think this game is all about DIllon Gabriel. Ohio State has the playmakers to put up points against this Oregon — they did that back in October — but Gabriel has so much experience, and I think that gives Oregon a huge edge. One of my favorite plays from their meeting in October was his touchdown just before halftime to Tez Johnson. Oregon faced third and long, Ohio State showed pressure with a radar front and just one defender in a three-point stance, but dropped nine into coverage. Gabriel did not panic, read the coverage, hit Johnson on a go route for a score, and instead of trailing at the half, Oregon went into the locker room with the lead:

There is nothing he has not seen on a football field, and I think that is huge again against Ohio State.

JP: Notre Dame
Mark: Notre Dame

Mark: We’re really living in a world where Notre Dame is heading to the CFP semifinals, aren’t we?

JP: Have we warped back in time to 2012?

Mark: I really hope we haven’t warped back to 2012. That means I have to go into an office and be a lawyer again Thursday. Nobody should want that.

JP: I would have to go back to middle school, which might be the most awkward time of a child’s life so...yeah there’s that. Georgia is without QB Carson Beck, and although all of the Gunner Stockton hype has been fun (HE DRIVES AN OLD PICKUP AND IS FROM TIGER, GEORGIA Y’ALL), I’m not sure he’s ready for this matchup. Notre Dame is finally facing a team that’s just as big and just as physical as them, but Fighting Irish QB Riley Leonard’s legs will be the big difference in this one.