After another semi-successful week of exposure (something that can be reviewed each and every week at the bottom of this column), these previews have suddenly become too hot to handle. Hand me the tongs and step back. The next abundance of words need only be handled with care.
Fantasy football start/sit advice based on Week 6 NFL picks against the spread
That isn’t just Brian Hoyer staring off into the distance for no apparent reason. He’s clearly spotted the $1 million he’ll likely help win this week. Or he’s watching another Allen Robinson touchdown. Matchups and Movements: Week 6 is here to preview all of it.
Here are your Week 6 matchups and movements (and picks).
(Home team in CAPS)
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-1.5) over Houston Texans
Vegas Scoring Total: 43
As much as I would love to throw an image of a dumpster fire in this spot and call it a day, I would not have wasted your time if I didn't reasonably think that (gulp) stacking Brian Hoyer and DeAndre Hopkins could win you a million dollars this week. Hoyer hasn't started a game in two weeks and yet has finished his last two games as a QB1 in 12-team leagues. The Texans nightmare has quickly become a fantasy owner's dream, seeing their ridiculous 77 plays per game turn Hopkins into must-start material each and every week. In fact, Hopkins is about the only thing even Ryan Mallett couldn't stop.
| Player | Targets | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns |
| Ryan Mallett | 43 | 24 | 291 | 2 |
| Brian Hoyer | 31 | 18 | 288 | 1 |
Outside of being shadowed by Josh Norman in Week 1 (one reception for 27 yards) and Vontae Davis during Week 4 (4-80), Allen Robinson has recorded 17 receptions (on 30 targets) for 295 yards and four touchdowns. It should be no surprise that six of those receptions were longer than 25 yards. Yes, Allen Hurns has scored numerous touchdowns as well (one in each of the last three games, to be exact), but Robinson remains the emphasis for the Jaguars.
If you’re looking for an outside-of-the-box play, stack the Fighting Allens (patent pending) and don’t look back.
NEW YORK JETS (-6.5) over Washington
Total: 40
As the lowest scoring total of the weekend, watching the status of Bilal Powell up until the very last second seems like the best way to go. When Chris Ivory and Powell have taken the field together this season, Ivory has still averaged 17 fantasy points per game. It's Powell who typically has taken a backseat and merely played on third down. But with Powell out against the Dolphins two weeks ago, Ivory received 29 touches and two more targets in the passing game. Even though Davante Freeman was the first runner to rush for more than 60 yards against Washington just last week, Ivory and the Jets defense remain an optimal option if Powell's declared out before kickoff.
And if you're still looking for a contrarian play, Brandon Marshall's salary raised $300 since last week. Even though Chris Culliver is scheduled to return in the Redskins secondary, Marshall -- one of only four players to catch for 100 yards on three separate occasions this season -- remains a great cash game option.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (+4) over Denver Broncos
Total: 41.5
On the Fantasy Labs podcast earlier this week, Tank Williams put this one into perspective as eloquently as he could:
“Josh McCown had probably the best game of his career last week, and the Broncos are gonna bury his ass this week.”
Normally I would agree, but the line opened with Denver as six-point favorites and shrunk overnight to where it stands as of now. As much as I would love to load a lineup with the Broncos defense (who have scored more fantasy points than Peyton and C.J. Anderson combined) and Demaryius Thomas (at least 11 targets in four of five games), it's certainly plausible that Duke Johnson and the Browns defense makes for the better correlation play. Johnson of course has received at least 15 touches in the past two games and at his lowly cost, is well worth paying the little amount needed to slide his opportunities into your lineup.
The Denver offense, on the other hand, is currently averaging as many yards per play (4.9) as the offensive juggernauts of the Lions and 49ers. Cleveland is the only team to allow over 700 yards rushing to opposing backs, but it's doubtful that either C.J. Anderson or Ronnie Hillman capitalize. Those 1,154 yards and seven touchdowns over the last three games from Josh McCown were fun and all, but it likely ends here.
Arizona Cardinals (-4) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Total: 44.5
If Ben Roethlisberger actually suits up and plays, the entire outlook of this game is turned on its head. Antonio Brown moves back into must-play territory, the seas seemingly part for Le’Veon Bell, Martavis Bryant steps in and averages two catches for 300 yards, and Heath Miller is universally plucked off of every waiver wire. If not, Michael Vick continues to play with his lighter under center until the entire kingdom burns.
At least there’s still a useful stack to be had within the Cardinals, it’s just a matter of figuring out who. John Brown has received at least five targets in four of five games played this season but has been scarcely limited in practice this week. Larry Fitzgerald would be nice, but a whopping 45 percent of his fantasy points have come in the form of touchdowns (a number that screams regression). Either way, points will surely be scored in Pittsburgh come Sunday.
BUFFALO BILLS (+3) over Cincinnati Bengals
Total: 42.5
Film of E.J. Manuel’s last start can be found below:
With the Bills defense still suffocating opposing offenses, there's no need to get too cute in this one. Consider the Bengals defense an ideal start, set it and walk away. Unless Manuel takes a backseat and the lot of Tyrod Taylor, LeSean McCoy, and Sammy Watkins all start, in which case walk away entirely.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3.5) over Kansas City Chiefs
Total: 43
Jeremy Maclin has recorded a total of 36 targets in three consecutive games but it might not even matter seeing as the Vikings have allowed only six passes of 25 yards or more. On the opposite side of the field, Kansas City has been consistently exploited by opposing quarterbacks and receivers, but Minnesota has throw only four passes of 25-plus yards.
In other words, start the Vikings (potentially stacking their defense with Adrian Peterson) and let others garner exposure to the rest.
Chicago Bears (+3) over DETROIT LIONS
Total: 44
Numerous people I respect are all over the Lions this weekend. For example:
What if I told you there's a $5300 QB who has averaged 295.5 pass yards & 1.75 TDs per game over previous four yrs. And he's home vs. Bears.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 14, 2015 Or:
Prediction: A Lions WR will be in the winning Milly Maker LU this week.
— Bryan Mears (@bryan_mears) October 14, 2015 Fortunately, I have zero self respect and will probably avoid all Detroit players (unless the line grows in favor of the home team) despite the fact that Kyle Fuller basically plays corner as if he were an open door. Still, the Bears have allowed only one opposing quarterback to pass for more than 200 yards and I don't think even that occurs if it were Jay Cutler under center rather than Jimmy Clausen disrupting game flow. I'm more inclined to pay up for Matt Forte, who has received at least 20 touches in four of five games this season (but unfortunately hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 1.) I might be on the combination of Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson by Sunday morning, but as I previously stated, it's going to take one hell of a movement.
And while we’re here, just a reminder to keep moving Bears fans away from any local Detroit BBQ joints, as well:
A couple years ago, Chicago drank Nashville bars out of beer. This weekend, Chicago ate some Kansas City BBQ joints out of meat.
— Adam Jahns (@adamjahns) October 12, 2015 Miami Dolphins (+1) over TENNESSEE TITANS
Total: 43.5
Dolphins head coach Dan Campbell recently spoke to his team about emphasising the run, reportedly telling them they “have to run the ball more and stop the run” and that’s “something we want to get going.” Translation: Miami has $111 million dollars invested in a defensive line that’s on pace to allow the most rushing yards this season and yet they’ve given their clock-killing back less than 10 carries per game. At least he addressed the issue better than Joe Philbin, who treated his rushing offense like Chip Diller treated riots.
If you haven’t bought low on Miller yet, pull the trigger before Sunday. He can practically be had for pennies on the dollar and has nothing but upside to look forward to.
Carolina Panthers (+7) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Total: 40.5
Though Thomas Rawls’ touches have progressively increased in each of the last three contests, Marshawn Lynch is scheduled to return and launch a potential committee until fully healed. Those 10 carries Lynch will receive make for as good of reason as any to fade the Seattle backfield. As for Russell Wilson and the passing game, their red flags remain whether it was the Carolina defense lined up opposite of them or not.
In a game that essentially ran four and a half quarters and produced 51 total points, Wilson once again passed for less than 250 yards and threw for only one touchdown. At this time last year, his 221 yards and two touchdowns on the ground were carrying fantasy owners. This season, he has yet to surpass 200 yards and has failed to score despite having six more carries.
And to all you Jimmy Graham owners, well, beats me. His percentage of offensive snaps began at 91 percent in Week 1 and has declined each and every week until it finally reached 74 percent against the Bengals. If you have him, sit him. Or jump into the nearest fire. Whichever you deem fit.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-10.5) over San Diego Chargers
Total: 50.5
Those buying and selling Eddie Lacy have suddenly become the Republicans and Democrats of fantasy football. Both parties are split evenly down the middle and there's a legitimate argument to be had for each side. But as Pat Thorman of Pro Football Focus pointed out, those buying seem to have a leg up in the race:
Lacy faced @PFF’s 1st, 2nd, 3rd, & 6th-ranked run Ds. When he faced the 20th-ranked run D, he avgd 5.0 yds on 18 atts. (Wk 6: SD ranks 30th)
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) October 15, 2015 Contrary to popular belief, James Starks hasn't even been all too much of a factor recently. He hasn't received more than 11 touches in consecutive games and continues to spell Lacy rather than vulture carries. Furthermore, the Chargers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. As a home favorite of more than a touchdown, Lacy should be featured in 100 percent of your GPPs this weekend (and similarly bought in most leagues.)
Since this is a rather high total though, there’s also value to be had on the San Diego offensive side of the ball. I would lean towards using Antonio Gates more than anyone else. Having played in only 56 percent of the Chargers snaps in his debut Monday night, Gates led the team in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns. Even our old pal Monte Ward would likely approve.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+2) over Baltimore Ravens
Total: 43.5
There is almost no better cure for a struggling offense than to have the 2015 Ravens drop by for a visit. Fortunately for the Niners, Baltimore has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterback and receivers. It also helps that San Francisco will be playing at home, instead of on the road where they've allowed 740 yards and seven touchdowns more than they have at Levi stadium. Considering Anquan Boldin led the league with five red zone targets last week, I would look for more of the same production from both him and Colin Kaepernick.
New England Patriots (-9) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Total: 54.5
In what will likely close as the highest scoring total of Week 6, Colts-Pats has everyone asking one simple question: fade or chalk? The look ahead (the line that was initially released back in May) for instance had New England as 1-point dogs. What's changed?
I think focus should remain on the cogs rather than the system. Narratives will likely take this one and run, causing everyone, I repeat, EVERYONE to pay up for Tom Brady. In a vacuum, that's all well and good despite the fact that his ownership percentage will otherworldly. But with numerous other options available with much less exposure directed towards them (due in part to the attention drawn here), you're better off sticking with Dion Lewis (who has received 40 more touches than LeGarrette Blount during the first half of play over the last two weeks) and whomever lines up opposite of Vontae Davis (either Julian Edelman or Rob Gronkowski).
It certainly helps that the Colts have allowed the most plays of at least 20 yards, the same stat that Gronk currently leads the Patriots with. Just ask Edelman if you had any doubts.
But with the anticipated return of Andrew Luck comes the additional return of Donte Moncrief's involvement within the offense. Prior to Luck's injury, Moncrief had averaged six receptions for 67 yards and one touchdown. But with Matt Hasselbeck under center during the last two games, Moncrief has regressed to the tune of four catches for 37 yards, including a one-catch dud against the Texans just last week. If Davis does in fact shadow Edelman in the slot, it opens the door wide open to fade him and use Moncrief instead.
New York Giants (+5) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Total: 49
Though neither team has found consistent success running the ball, it shouldn't matter as it pertains to the points expected. The Eagles have found their rhythm recently, scoring at least 20 points in three consecutive games. Furthermore, Philadelphia finally outsnapped an opponent for the first time last week in their throttling of the Saints. But both of their wins this season have come when they've eclipsed 100 rushing yards, and prior to their game against the 49ers, the Giants had limited their four previous opponents to less than 90.
It doesn't get much better for New York's backfield seeing as the Eagles have allowed only one rushing touchdown this season. Fortunately, projected game flow gives way to only one Giants runner to begin with. While Rashad Jennings led New York in touches last week, it's Shane Vereen who won the "Who gets Andre William's carries?" award. And in PPR leagues (and daily sites that award points for receptions), Vereen can be had for near-minimum cost and found on the occasional waiver wire. Consider him more of a wideout and stack him with Eli Manning, who has passed for at least 200 yards and two touchdowns in four consecutive games.
Good luck this week.
Last Week: 7-4-2
Week 5 Exposure: Jay Cutler (17.5), Eli Manning (29.7), Le'Veon Bell (20.7), Todd Gurley (15.9), Justin Forsett (25), Dion Lewis (19.3), Terrance Williams (4), Travis Benjamin (11.3), Marquess Wilson (17.5), Rob Gronkowski (8.7), Giants (2)
Season: 43-26-2
Week 6 Exposure: Brian Hoyer, Matthew Stafford, Shane Vereen, Eddie Lacy, Chris Ivory (if Powell sits), Allen Robinson, Calvin Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Floyd (if John Brown sits), Torrey Smith (if Carlos Hyde/Reggie Bush sit), Rob Gronkowski, Packers, Jets
