McLaren left wondering what might have been at Monza

When the lights went out Sunday at the start of the Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix, every McLaren fan on the planet believed that the race would end with both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri on the podium. With the McLaren duo locking out the front row during Saturday’s qualifying session, such a result seemed not just possible, but probable.

While those fans got what they wanted, it was not exactly what they were hoping for. Piastri finished second and Norris third, thanks in part to a masterful performance from Charles Leclerc.

Leaving McLaren to wonder what might have been.

All season long, one of the biggest questions facing McLaren, and in particular Norris, was how they handled race starts. With Norris starting in pole position, would he finally be able to convert a P1 start into an opening lap lead? Even in his dominant win last week at the Dutch. Grand Prix Norris lost the lead on the opening lap, and Sunday began with the McLaren driver still looking to lead an opening lap from pole position for the first time in his career.

He is still looking.

While both Norris and Piastri got a tremendous launch off the line, Piastri’s bold overtake of his teammate at the second chicane on the first lap saw the Australian vault into the lead, and shuffled Norris back to third behind Leclerc. Once more, Norris was left to look at the leaders in front at the end of an opening lap, despite starting up front.

Still, the MCL38 remains one of the dominant packages on the grid right now, and a well-executed undercut from McLaren saw Norris overtake Leclerc for second. At one point the McLaren duo was running one-two, and with Piastri holding the bonus point for the fastest lap of the Grand Prix — and the Red Bull duo running further back in the points — the “live time standings” had McLaren level with Red Bull on the season.

However, as the laps ticked down and the end of the Italian Grand Prix was drawing near, both Norris and Piastri were seeing wear on their tires. Ultimately McLaren brought both drivers in for a second stop, opening the door for Ferrari to roll the dice with a bold, audacious strategy call. They left both Leclerc and Carlos Sainz Jr. out on worn hard tires, hoping they could pull off a pair of one-stop races and hold on for the win.

They did just that.

While the McLarens reeled in Sainz, securing the last two spots on the podium, they could not track down Leclerc. The Tifosi were able to see one of their heroes claim victory at Monza, touching off some of the most tremendous scenes of the 2024 F1 season.

And leaving the McLaren duo wondering how a potential one-two finish — and perhaps a lead over Red Bull in the standings — turned into a two-three result.

One on hand it is critically important to remember just how far McLaren has come over the past 18 months. When the 2023 season began in Bahrain a year ago, they were at the back of the field, with Piastri retiring for a P20 result and Norris finishing 17th, two laps down. When I spoke with Norris ahead of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix last April, he conceded that all they could do at the moment was fight for points.

As the 2023 season wore on, and the team began upgrading the MCL60, they started fighting for podiums and began a charge up the table. But even as last season wound down, they never imagined that 2024 would see them in consistent contention for wins, and perhaps a Constructors’ Championship. CEO Zak Brown told me as much last October, declaring that 2024 was “probably still a little bit early” for a title fight.

But that fight has arrived ahead of schedule. Despite the disappointing result on Sunday in Monza, and the questions that are sure to be coming their way, they are just eight points behind Red Bull atop the Constructors’ Championship standings. Norris is now just 62 points behind Verstappen in the Drivers’ Championship. They are wildly ahead of schedule according to their own timetables.

And yet on the other hand ...

Nothing in life, and sports, is guaranteed. We like to believe that growth, development, and progress are linear. We might look at how far McLaren has come this year and conclude that next year will be even better for them and that they could be runaway champions and Norris will cruise to his first Drivers’ Championship.

But tomorrow is not guaranteed to unfold that way.

McLaren may ultimately win the Constructors’ Championship. Norris’ title hopes against Verstappen remain intact. However, they could have taken an even bigger step forward in both those fights today, but they did not. Had they finished one-two, as they started the day, they would have left Monza in the Constructors’ Championship lead. A one-two finish would have given McLaren a one-point lead (even without the bonus point for the fastest lap) over Red Bull, as Verstappen finished sixth and Sergio Pérez eighth.

That they fell short could be seen and heard in the faces, and words, of both drivers following Sunday’s finish.

“I’m not going to lie, it hurts a lot,” said Piastri after his second-place finish. “We did a lot of things right today. There was a lot of question marks on the strategy going into the race.

“From the position we were in with the tires looking like they did, doing a one-stop seemed like a very risky call, but in the end it was right. Very, very happy with the pace, with the race that I managed to achieve, just when you finish second it hurts.

“It’s hard not to be very disappointed,” he added.

“I can’t be happy with third,” said Norris to the official F1 channel. “Pretty crappy day from my side.

“Some days it’s not good enough. I’m trying to make up for just being not good enough in other parts of the race.”

As has been the case this season, the team will face some external questions over how they are handling this talented duo, drivers Brown told me gave McLaren the best pair on the grid. They will face questions over how they handle things operationally week-to-week, as they find themselves in a title fight with Red Bull, and attempt to manage that fight as well as Norris’ effort to chase down Verstappen.

Eight race weekends lie ahead of McLaren to accomplish those tasks. Eight race weekends left in what has been an exceptional F1 season. Eight Grands Prix, plus a trio of F1 Sprint Races, will offer up yet more twists and turns to this season-long saga. McLaren, despite Sunday’s result in Monza, remains a favorite in their fight with Red Bull. Norris may still catch Verstappen atop the Drivers’ Championship standings.

But tomorrow is not guaranteed.