A little while ago we looked at pitchers whose ERAs were significantly worse than their Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) in 2013. Here’s the converse list, the pitchers whose ERAs were tinged with a bit of luck.
The Lucky Ones
USA TODAY Sports
These aren’t bad pitchers. In fact, several of the league’s best starters and young stars appear on the list. That’s not quite what we’re looking for -- pitchers with great ERAs who perhaps only deserved very good ERAs. What we’re really interested in are the Joe Kellys and Bruce Chens and Alexi Ogandos of the world, pitchers who superficially looked good in 2013 but should be considered risky buys in next year’s fantasy drafts.
| Name | Team | W | L | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | ERA | xFIP | ERA/xFIP |
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | 12 | 1 | 108.1 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.3 | .254 | 1.74 | 3.41 | .51 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 16 | 9 | 236.0 | 8.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | .251 | 1.83 | 2.88 | .64 |
| Joe Kelly | Cardinals | 10 | 5 | 124.0 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 0.7 | .289 | 2.69 | 4.19 | .64 |
| Bruce Chen | Royals | 9 | 4 | 121.0 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | .255 | 3.27 | 4.93 | .66 |
| Alexi Ogando | Rangers | 7 | 4 | 104.1 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | .254 | 3.11 | 4.64 | .67 |
| Bartolo Colon | Athletics | 18 | 6 | 190.1 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | .294 | 2.65 | 3.95 | .67 |
| Travis Wood | Cubs | 9 | 12 | 200.0 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | .248 | 3.11 | 4.50 | .69 |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | 12 | 6 | 172.2 | 9.8 | 3.0 | 0.5 | .240 | 2.19 | 3.08 | .71 |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 11 | 8 | 154.1 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | .268 | 3.27 | 4.31 | .76 |
| Matt Moore | Rays | 17 | 4 | 150.1 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 0.8 | .259 | 3.29 | 4.32 | .76 |
| Zack Greinke | Dodgers | 15 | 4 | 177.2 | 7.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | .276 | 2.63 | 3.45 | .76 |
| Hector Santiago | White Sox | 4 | 9 | 149.0 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.0 | .289 | 3.56 | 4.65 | .77 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | 8 | 5 | 111.1 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 0.4 | .314 | 3.15 | 4.00 | .79 |
| Jacob Turner | Marlins | 3 | 8 | 118.0 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 0.8 | .285 | 3.74 | 4.71 | .79 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | 14 | 6 | 219.2 | 7.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | .252 | 2.66 | 3.28 | .81 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 7 | 5 | 100.0 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 0.9 | .279 | 3.42 | 4.21 | .81 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Marlins | 4 | 6 | 106.1 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 0.6 | .286 | 3.39 | 4.15 | .82 |
| Shelby Miller | Cardinals | 15 | 9 | 173.1 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | .280 | 3.06 | 3.73 | .82 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 9 | 7 | 128.2 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | .253 | 3.22 | 3.91 | .82 |
| Zach McAllister | Indians | 9 | 9 | 134.1 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | .295 | 3.75 | 4.53 | .83 |
| Kyle Lohse | Brewers | 11 | 10 | 198.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 1.2 | .276 | 3.35 | 4.03 | .83 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 13 | 9 | 201.1 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | .251 | 2.77 | 3.32 | .83 |
(Minimum 15 starts.)
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