Jose Bautista his his 50th long-ball yesterday - the only run in a 1-0 victory for the Blue Jays over the Marines. He's the first player to reach the mark in three seasons, since Prince Fielder and Alex Rodriguez got there in 2007, and it's an interesting feat in a number of ways. Not the least being that...well, it's Jose Bautista, a man who in the preceding six seasons and 575 games combined, had a total of 59 homers, with no more than 16 in any year.
A Welcome Back To The 50-Homer Season, Courtesy Of Jose Bautista
It’s not quite the largest jump in baseball history. When Cecil Fielder hit 51 in 1990, he obliterated his previous high of 14, and only had 31 to his credit previously. However, that covered far fewer games, 220, and his prior HR rate (one every 18 PAs) was far better than Bautista’s (34.5 PAs). Fielder was also aged 26, three years younger; while some sluggers have had their first 50-HR season approaching 30, they usually show more sign of it than Jose.
The gap between him and everyone else is also impressive. Bautista has 24% more home-runs than the second-placed batter (Albert Pujols on 41), something not matched since 1995, when Albert Belle reached fifty, ten more than any other player. However, that year also saw three tied for second on 40; in 2010, to find fourth-place, you need to go down to 35 home-runs.
The location of his home-runs stands out too, tthough is nothing new. Not one is to the right of dead-center; he hasn't had an opposite-field home-run his entire career, representing the pull hitter par excellence. He does seem to feasting on the possibilities offered at the Rogers Center, which has a reputation for helping the right-handed slugger - only 19 of the 50 have come on the road. That's still more than any other season for Bautista, remember.
Will he be able to do it again? 17 of the 26 to precede Bautista never did, and some of those who did have, shall we say, question-marks beside their names. 21.6% of fly-balls he has hit this year have left the park, far beyond MLB average (7.8%), and more than double the rate he posted in 2009. That makes me think this was “one of those seasons” [see Luis Gonzalez in 2001 and Brady Anderson in 1995] - while it doesn’t take away from what is still a great feat, I’d bet heavily against him doing it again, or even coming close, next year
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