Not a single National League post-season spot has been decided as we head into the final week. Admittedly, the Phillies and the Reds would need to lose all their games, and the team chasing win all theirs, merely to force a play-off. But the chase for the West and the National League wild-card remains wide open.
NL Playoff Picture: Three Into Two Won’t Go
The lead in the volatile NL West has swapped between the Giants and Padres eleven times in the past eighteen days, with the margin half a game or less since September 14th. At this point, the Giants have a half-game lead. Whoever loses will fight it out with the Braves for the wild-card; Atlanta are a further half-game back on the Padres.
After the jump, we’ll take a look at what the three teams face in the upcoming week, what they need to do, and how CoolStandings.com and BaseballProspectus.com rate their chances.
Atlanta Braves. Record: 87-69. Schedule: three vs. Marlins, three vs. Phillies
After the Braves won their first game of September, they seemed a post-season lock. with a three game-lead in the East, and tied with the Reds for the best mark in the league. But since then, they are 9-14 - only the Dodgers have a worse NL record - and are struggling to hang on in the wild-card.
It's their bats that have gone cold, with an average of 3.4 runs per game in that time. Four everyday players have posted September OPS's of below .675, with Martin Prado, who led the offense for much of the year, all the way down at .614. They do play the rest of their schedule at home, and may get helped if the Phillies opt to line up their rotation for the playoffs in that final series. Post-season odds: 59.8% (CS), 54.1% (BP).
San Diego Padres. Record: 87-67. Schedule: four vs. Cubs, three @ Giants
We previously wrote about the Padres potentially historic collapse, but they aren't going away quite yet. Two one-run wins over the Reds this weekend kept them in touch with the Giants, and they have a winning record over the past nine games, despite being outscored 44-33 in that time. That's mostly because their starters are 6-11 with a 4.72 ERA this month.
They play 13 games in the last 13 days, starting the final week with a four-game set at home to the Cubs. They will want to take three of four, though the Cubs have been playing better, with a 19-11 record under new manager Mike Quade. As a neutral, it’d be great for the final series, in San Francisco against the Giants to be, effectively, a three-game playoff. Post-season odds: 57.0% (CS), 64.4 % (BP).
San Francisco Giants. Record: 87-68. Schedule: three vs. Diamondbacks, three vs. Padres
The Giants have ridden a historic streak of pitching to the brink of the playoffs. They had eighteen straight games allowing three runs or less. The Elias Sports Bureau says that the longest single-season run in the majors since the 1917 White Sox. I'm a little surprised SF only went 12-6 over the time, but it was enough to bail out their offense - in five of those wins, the Giants scored two runs or less.
They enjoy an off-day today, and can settle in at AT&T Park for the final home-stand, where they have a 45-30 record this year. Jonathan Sanchez looks likely to start two games this week, with Barry Zito and Matt Cain also scheduled for the Padres series next weekend. But the off-day could conceivably let them swap Zito with Lincecum, to get Tim into that crucial set against San Diego. Post-season odds: 83.0% (CS), 81.1% (BP).
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