According to the StarTribune's Joe Christensen, the Twins' front office has privately been discussing the option of trading top starter Francisco Liriano. And while it would be easy for Twins fans to cover their virtual ears and pretend they didn't virtually hear anything, Tom Pelissero didn't help matters a little later on Twitter:
For Twins, Trading Francisco Liriano Would Be A Ballsy But Understandable Move
Did some digging this morning on Francisco Liriano, too, in light of @JoeCStrib's story. Told it's "truth." #Yankees, #Rangers possibilities
Tom Pelissero
TomPelissero
Indeed, there appears to be some substance here. And it goes beyond simply being open to all offers at all times; the Twins seem to be at least somewhat interested in shipping Liriano away.
On the surface, it's...well I won't say "crazy", but it's unconventional. Liriano had the #2 strikeout rate in the American League last season. His xFIP - an advanced metric on an ERA scale that considers the outcomes under a pitcher's control - was #1, and just a hair behind MLB leader Roy Halladay. Last season, Liriano was extraordinarily good, and he projects to be extraordinarily good again in 2011.
With the Twins looking like favorites in the AL Central, dealing away an extraordinarily good starting pitcher isn't the move you'd expect. Carl Pavano and Scott Baker are all right, but nobody thinks of them as top-of-the-rotation starters, and they don't really strike fear in anyone.
But then, consider the other side. There is an argument, here.
(1) Liriano has a pretty significant injury history. He isn't Mark Prior or anything, but he's already had his elbow cut open, he's experienced arm soreness, and there are questions about his shoulder. Additionally he relies heavily on a slider that many think is bad for his health.
(2) Liriano’s set to become a free agent after the 2012 season. That’s still two years of team control, but they’re likely to be pretty expensive, and talks about a long-term contract extension haven’t gone anywhere. Right now, Liriano can’t be thought of as a building block for the future.
(3) The Twins probably aren't going to have real good World Series odds before Liriano enters free agency. This is an unconvincing point, since they're in the best shape of any team in their division and just making the playoffs gives you a real shot, but how well do they truly match up with the Red Sox? How well do they truly match up with the Rangers, or Yankees, or Rays? It's something to think about, at least.
(4) In 2009, Liriano was bad. 2010, obviously, is more meaningful than what happened the season before, but in 2009, Liriano’s velocity was down and he posted a 5.80 ERA over 136.2 innings. He does not have a track record of consistency.
Put it all together and you can see why the Twins are talking about what they're talking about. They're by no means in a rush to send Liriano out the door, but there's a compelling case to be made that they should at least check out the market. With Cliff Lee going to the Phillies and Andy Pettitte retiring, the Yankees are desperate for quality starting pitching. The Rangers could use another arm as well. And there are other teams that would be interested. Being aggressive with Liriano - both now, and over the next several months - is sensible.
If the Twins can’t find a good return, they should hold on to their ace and try to go as far as they can. But if someone comes calling with an A-level package, that could - and maybe should - be enough for Minnesota to become the rare contender that trades a top arm.
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