Really interesting take from Joe Sheehan , who says the Yankees should hope that Sabathia exercises his opt-out clause after this season.
Should Yankees Be Hoping CC Sabathia Opts Out?
Joe’s reasoning? At the end of 2011, the Yankees will have paid reasonable money for three of Sabathia’s peak seasons ... seasons that he’s unlikely to duplicate down the line, considering his unique physique. After the jump, Joe’s big finish ...
This is why the Yankees need to look at Sabathia’s opt-out not as a problem, but as an opportunity. The best-case scenario for them is exactly what it was on the day he signed: three years of top-tier performance followed by Sabathia electing free agency, voiding the four years at the back of the contract, Sabathia’s early 30s, where the risk profile changes. To get a pitcher of Sabathia’s caliber for his age 28-30 seasons -- and only those seasons -- is a dream. After all, a team doesn’t go to seven years on a contract for a pitcher because it wants to, but because it has to.
If Sabathia opts out, the Yankees can get out from under four years and $92 million worth of risk, and put that money towards a pitcher with a significantly different risk profile. Given the pool of pitching talent that will be nearing the majors in 2012, they could use the money in any number of ways. What’s nearly certain is that any alternate use of the money will be less risky than Sabathia’s age 31-35 campaigns.
I'm on board with most of this, except I'm not sure what Joe means about "the pool of pitching talent that will be nearing the majors in 2012." The Yankees don't have any Grade A pitching prospects, and the teams that do have them won't be itching to deal with the Yankees. With a very thin crop of free-agent pitchers next winter -- after Mark Buehrle and C.J. Wilson, there probably won't be anyone the Yankees would even consider -- it's just hard to figure what their rotation would look like without Sabathia. My guess is they do whatever it takes to keep him, if only to avoid an 84-win 2012.
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