Robinson Cano signs with the Mariners for $240 million

Cano told reporters:

Robinson Cano was the Yankees best player by fWAR and rWAR from 2008 to 2013 and owner Hal Steinbrenner, team President Randy Levine and GM Brian Cashman all acknowledge his importance to the team in their statements.

Former manager Eric Wedge, who resigned on Sept. 27, characterized the front office and ownership as one of “total dysfunction and a lack of leadership,” mostly aimed at general manager Jack Zduriencik, team president Chuck Armstrong and CEO Howard Lincoln.

Baker spoke to more than two dozen either current or past Mariners baseball operations employees, including former special assistant to GM Tony Blengino (let go after the 2013 season) who said he prepared the job application for Zduriencik to help him land the GM job in the first place:

Every year, those of us who follow rumors obsessively get a reminder not to freak out over news like “Jay-Z overplayed his hand” and “the Mariners have cut off negotiations with Robinson Cano.” Anybody who spent the morning cracking hacky jokes about 99 problems got whiplash just before lunch when the Cano agreed to sign with the M’s for 10 years and $240 million, so congratulations are in order to Cano, Jay-Z, and everybody who didn’t automatically assume that the two of them were idiots.

But should we also be congratulating the Mariners? This is, after all, an exceptionally long contract. It ties Albert Pujols’ deal from 2011 as the third largest in baseball history, and it makes Cano one of the ten highest-paid players in the game today. Are the Mariners going to regret this deal?

Bobby Grich and Jeff Kent, two of the best-hitting second basemen in history, made that kind of transition late in their careers, but there is reason to be skeptical that Cano can, first because old is old, and ages 38 and up are years of decline for all players, not just second basemen. Second, while Cano has become moderately more selective in recent years, seeing fractionally more pitches per plate appearance, he’s still an inveterate first-pitch swinger -- he was 12^th in the AL this season in percentage of plate appearances in which he swung at the first offering -- whose increasing walk totals of recent years are probably more reflective of pitchers giving him a wider berth than of any inclination to be more selective on his part. If you want a third leg to the tripod of doom, it’s that while Cano has legitimate power, his current home run rate is a gift of Yankee Stadium III. In his career he averaged a home run every 34 at-bats at the old Stadium, one every 19 at the new one, and one every 29 at-bats everywhere else. He’s hit one every 38 at Safeco Field, or about 17 per the 629 at-bats Cano has averaged per 162 games played.

The vicious termites of age are the enemy of batting average. Cano is a career .309 hitter, but if we look five years into the future, to the second five years of his contract, we can see that in the post-expansion era (1961 to present), just eight players who had 1,500 or more plate appearances have hit over .300 from age 36 up, and 17 (including Kent) have kept their batting average over .290. Unless Cano keeps adding walks as he loses points on his average, his on-base percentage will slide towards league average. Safeco will help push him there -- according to the park index in the Bill James Handbook, over the last three years, Safeco has suppressed left-handed batting average by 10 percent over (that is below) the average and home runs by 15 percent. Conversely, Yankee Stadium has pumped lefty hitters in those categories by three and 27 percent, respectively. The fences did come in at Safeco in 2013, however, it’s hard to glean much from one year of park data.

The members of this club have all been made wealthy beyond belief, but the deals that have earned them their place in the one-percent aren’t always looked upon fondly after the ink dries and the excitement dies down. If the other $200 million deals are any indication, the Mariners could be in for a bad case of buyer’s remorse.

Here are the five other members of the $200 million club presented in chronological order

Seattle was initially hesitant to go over the $200-million threshold, but with Cano’s asking price sitting at 10 years and $240 million, the club made the move. General manager Jack Zduriencik told Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune on Wednesday that the time had come to “augment” the club, which he’s certainly accomplished.

At 31, Cano is past what the traditional aging curve would consider his prime, but his ability to stay off the disabled list -- he’s played in at least 159 games each of the last seven seasons -- should quell some of the fears that he’s going to start falling apart right away.

Update: The Mariners and Robinson Cano have worked out a 10-year, $240 million contract, despite the earlier reports that talks had broken off. It appears as if a night to sleep on it worked well for both sides.

Negotiations break down all the time, but it’s worth noting that Cano switched from the best agent in professional sports, Scott Boras, to Jay Z and his fledgling agency, Roc Nation, earlier in 2013. Unless the only reason they were in Seattle was to force the Yankees to drive up their price -- which, and this is key, did not happen -- then Jay Z essentially cost Cano $50 million or more unless the Mariners are willing to patch things up. That’s $50 million without getting into the lack of income tax in Washington, or the cost of living difference between Seattle and New York City, and so on.

Discussions between the Seattle Mariners and free agent second baseman Robinson Cano have escalated considerably. Cano flew to the Emerald City to sit down with the M’s on Thursday where the club told him they are willing to offer a contract of 10 years and $230-240 million, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes.

New York’s last known offer to Cano was seven years and $160 million, so if Seattle is really willing to guarantee him a decade, Hal Steinbrenner and company are going to have to up their proposal considerably.

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Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik wouldn’t admit to meeting with Cano specifically, but did tell ESPN’s Andrew Marchand on Tuesday that they have “talked to everybody,” which would have to include the coveted second baseman.

The Yankees’ chances of re-signing Cano now stand at “less than 50/50,” per Matthews. The club last met with its former second baseman last Tuesday, where it’s believed he was presented with a seven-year, $160 million offer. That is a long way off from the nine years and $252 million Cano is reportedly hoping for, which is significantly down from his original 10-year, $310 million asking price.

Cano’s asking price has been the talk of the offseason, as earlier reports had him seeking over $300 million on the open market. However, the Yankees are dead-set on keeping their offer reasonable, and refuse to offer an eighth year or a salary figure north of $200 million, reports Curry. That means that the two sides are still apart by as much as $100 million.

• Robinson Cano reportedly wants $260-275 million | More rumors

Cano, who turned 31 in October, reportedly demanded a 10-year, $310 million contract in return for foregoing free agency. Now that he’s hit the market, it’s thought his expectations are lower, but how much lower is unknown. With many of the traditional big spenders being set at second base and the Yankees showing financial constraint for the first time in recent memory, he is having trouble finding enough serious suitors to create a bidding war for his services. Marchand revisits Yankees team president Randy Levine’s comments on the matter last week:

To further complicate matters, New York has already been active on the free agent market and figures to sign more players. The team inked catcher Brian McCann to a five-year, $85 million contract on Saturday, and Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports that they are going hard after outfielder Carlos Beltran. They see the 36-year-old as the best fit for their lineup among the available free agent pool, and Beltran has suggested that the Yankees are his top choice as well, reports Feinsand. The main difference in negotiations at the moment seems to be years -- the Yankees want to give him two, and Beltran wants three, says Feinsand. Whether or not they sign Beltran, though, the available money for a Cano contract decreases with each new free agent that the team brings aboard.