2014 MLB Hall of Fame profiles

Discussion of the 2014 Hall of Fame class has been dominated by the suspicion of steroids and which players may or may not have used them. Jeff Bagwell’s candidacy has been handicapped by those rumors for much of the last decade. Will those whispers be enough to keep one of the best players of the 90s out of the Hall of Fame?

Until he was forced to retire due to shoulder issues, Bagwell consistently ranked among the best players in baseball. He was so consistently good that, up until his injury-plagued final year, his worst year came as a sophomore player in 1992 when he hit .273/.368/.444 with 18 home runs and 97 RBI. For a 24-year-old s his worst season came second-year player, that really not so bad of a “worst year”.

Over the last six years, Raines has seen his voting dip as low as 22.6 percent and rise as high as 52.2 percent, which is where he stood in 2013. Could this be the year that Raines finally sees his vote tally jump enough to earn him the highest honor a player can receive?

Raines has oft-been compared to Tony Gwynn, Sr. when discussing his Hall of Fame candidacy, and for good reason. The two men played in the same time period and both had a similar game as they favored speed and getting on base over power.

The Steroid Era is costing many all-time greats their shot at the Hall of Fame due to the Integrity Clause, but it is having a very different effect on Fred McGriff. Although McGriff is generally considered to have been clean, the league-wide offensive explosion that occurred at the tail-end of his career makes his numbers look less impressive in comparison to the players that followed him.

McGriff’s resume is based on durability and consistency rather than on an elite peak. He hit at least 30 home runs for seven straight seasons and ten times overall, and his 493 long balls are tied with Lou Gehrig for 26th all time. He also surpassed 100 RBI in eight different seasons and drew at least 90 walks five different times. His overall batting line was .284/.377/.509, and he had 10 seasons with an OPS+ of at least 130. He was never the best in any given year, but he was always among the strongest hitters in the game.

This year, Mark McGwire will appear on his eighth Hall of Fame ballot. The burly slugger has not fared well up to this point, having topped out at 23.7 percent in 2010 before falling to a low of 16.9 percent in last year’s voting. Things will not get any better for him this time around.

In terms of Hall of Fame voting, it really doesn’t matter what Big Mac did on the field. He admitted to using steroids during his career, and that is the end of the debate as far as the BBWAA voting is concerned. What’s worse, his most marketable skill -- hitting home runs -- is the thing most commonly distorted by steroid use in the eyes of the public. The question at this point isn’t whether or not the BBWAA will elect McGwire, but rather how long he will remain on the ballot at all as ever-increasing hordes of qualified (and untainted) candidates compete with him for attention and votes.

Mike Piazza’s batting numbers would gain him votes to be a Hall of Famer at any position. As a catcher, he may be one of the best of all-time. In his first year on the ballot in 2013, he received nearly 58 percent of the vote, around 17 percent short of induction. He should receive a bump this year, as writers won’t have to worry about the “first ballot” honor, and based solely on his offensive merits he seems like a likely choice to be named a Hall of Famer at some point.

However, speculation and bad information may keep him out of the Hall, at least for the next couple of years.

Palmeiro’s 569 long balls are the 12th-most ever. Traditionally, 500 home runs has been a golden ticket for the Hall of Fame. It’s such a rare feat that only the greatest players have achieved it. It takes talent, durability, consistency, and more talent.

Palmeiro’s 3,020 hits rank 25th all-time. Once, 3,000 hits was an automatic bid into the hall. Oscar-snubbed movies have been made about the quest for that magical number! A player with 3,000 hits and 500 home runs? There have only been four: Palmeiro, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Eddie Murray. The latter three were all first-ballot Hall of Famers.

Biggio checks off multiple milestones that have long been seen as keys to Hall of Fame election. He has 3,060 hits (one of only 28 players with 3,000 hits) to go with four Gold Gloves and seven All-Star appearances. He also received votes on MVP ballots in five seasons. He did all of this while manning up-the-middle defensive positions and playing in the offensive mausoleum that was the Astrodome. As we’ve discussed in other articles, Hall of Fame credentials tend to be based on a combination of career worth and peak worth. Biggio tends to shade more towards sustained excellence rather than a dominant peak, though it would be foolish to ignore his 9.4 WAR season (one of five above 5 WAR in his career) in 1997, though he was only voted fourth on MVP ballots. Still though, he had seven seasons ranging between 2 and 5 WAR and only reached the 3,000 hit plateau thanks to two final seasons that total -1.7 WAR between them.

If we check in with JAWS, the metric created by Sports Illustrated’s Jay Jaffe, we see that Biggio’s career WAR of 64.9 falls short of the average Hall of Fame second baseman’s (69.5). Given that Biggio played 13% of his career at catcher and another nine percent in centerfield, it’s fair to compare his WAR to some amalgamation of those positions as well. In this instance he fares better but still comes up short, as the up-the-middle positions (catcher, second base, shortstop, center field) have an average WAR of 65.7. If we look at peak WAR the situation remains the same, with Biggio’s 41.6 falling a bit below the second base average of 44.5 and just barely under the up-the-middle’s 42. His JAWS score - and stay with me here because it gets tricky -- sees the exact same pattern emerge. Biggio’s 53.3 is a few ticks behind the average second baseman’s 57 and just behind the average up-the-middle’s 53.9. Keeping in mind that these are averages for the position, his failure to meet them isn’t great, but also means he’s very close to the average member of an elite class of player. He might not raise the bar for these positions, but he would seemingly make good company for those already enshrined.

However, outside of that brief peak, he was a much more ordinary player. Will writers vote for a player with a nice peak, even if he wasn’t great over the rest of his career?

In all honesty, he’s probably not. He had a few years in his 30s that saw him produce two or three truly great seasons, with a few good ones surrounding them.

The steady playing time paid off the next season as well, as Kent went for a .297/.359/.555 slash line while duplicating his power outburst from the year before, with 31 home runs. This was the second year of a nine-year run that included an MVP award, five All-Star selections and four Silver Slugger awards. Kent broke the 20-home-run plateau each of those nine seasons, thrice hitting 30 home runs. He topped 100 RBI in eight of those nine seasons and topped 120 RBI in three of them. His best claim as a Hall of Famer might be his title as the record holder for home runs as a second baseman with 351. His career Wins Above Replacement (WAR) lands him 18th all-time among second basemen, which is higher than eight current second baseman in the Hall of Fame. Throw in his luscious mustache and he’s a lock, right? Yeah, about that ...

Simply put, they shouldn’t. While his 55.2 career WAR bests eight of the current Hall of Fame keystoners, it falls behind 11 of them, and is over 14 wins behind the average Hall of Fame second baseman. His peak WAR doesn’t save him either, as his 35.6 is just under nine full wins lower than the average Hall second sacker, leaving him with a JAWS score over 11 wins lower than average.

Following his sparking debut against Frank Thomas and the White Sox (it was a loss, by the way), Mussina continued to shine for the remainder of that 1991 season, recording a 2.87 ERA. He was even better the following season, going from 20th overall pick in the 1990 draft to staff ace in short order. 1992 saw Mussina log 241 innings of 2.54 ERA. While the strikeouts hadn’t arrived yet (only 4.9 per nine innings), he limited walks (1.8 per nine) and home runs (0.6 per nine) on his way to an 18-5 record. This was the first of 11 seasons in which Mussina would throw at least 200 innings. Mussina’s 1992 season earned him fourth place in the Cy Young Award voting, though he was second among pitchers when it came to Wins Above Replacement (WAR) with a stellar 8.2. This would mark the first of nine times that Mussina earned Cy Young votes, finishing as high as second in 1999. That 1992 season was also the first of five All-Star selections he’d receive.

Hall of Fame credentials are built on both career longevity and peak value, with ideal candidates sporting a healthy dose of both. Mussina’s case is founded in consistent excellence without a truly dominant peak. Mussina’s 270 wins land him 33rd on the all-time list, more than 32 other Hall of Fame pitchers. He’s in the top 20 (19th overall) when it comes to strikeouts, and his strikeout rate lands him in the top 10 of pitchers with 3,000 innings. Where Mussina was truly special though was his ability to command the zone. He wasn’t an elite bat-misser with that 7.1 strikeout per nine innings ratio, but when paired with his meager two walks per nine innings (career), it made for a potent combination. Add in the six gold gloves Mussina earned, and his credentials appear even stronger when it comes to measuring total value as a player.

The Jack Morris debate is almost over.

Morris, who pitched in 18 big league seasons spanning three decades, is entering his final year on the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. His worthiness for induction into Cooperstown has been a huge topic of debate around this time every year as his time on the ballot has wound down.

He was one of the greatest players the game has ever seen at home but was merely very good on the road.

Statements like that have always surrounded Larry Walker, who is entering his fourth year on the Hall of Fame ballot after barely registering 20 percent of the vote in each of the first three years. In terms of sheer numbers, not many Hall of Fame candidates can top Walker. He hit .313/.400/.565 in 17 years. His counting stats, which include 2,160 hits and 383 home runs, took a hit as a result of a few injury-plagued seasons but are still strong. And he’s got hardware -- seven Gold Gloves, five All-Star selections, three Silver Slugger awards and a National League MVP trophy, to be exact.

He was arguably the best player to ever play his position. Normally when that phrase is uttered, it references a Hall of Fame player. The best pitcher ever? There’s no consensus on who it was, but whatever one’s personal opinion, their guy is probably in the Hall of Fame. Best catcher ever? Best shortstop ever? Best right fielder ever? Same deal.

Best designated hitter ever? Now, all of a sudden, there’s a pause and qualifications. “Well, he only played half the game”...“If he can’t play the field, how could he be great” and so on and so forth.

By the more advanced metrics, Schilling is quite clearly a Hall of Famer. His 80.7 rWAR career value puts him in elite company, just 1.2 wins below Bob Gibson, 2.0 wins below Fergie Jenkins and 3.0 wins below Nolan Ryan. He is 8.2 wins ahead of pitching-award-namesake Cy Young and more than 10 wins above dozens of non-controversial members like Jim Palmer, Juan Marichal, and Bob Feller. WAR isn’t the only measure that rates Schilling among the elite pitchers of all time. He had one of the greatest combinations of control and strikeout ability the game has ever seen. His 4.38 strikeout-to-walk ratio is unmatched in the modern era and second all-time, trailing only Tommy Bond who pitched from 1874 to 1884.

Besides wins, Schilling lacks the hardware many voters look to for help in their voting process. He finished second in Cy Young voting three times, but never won the award. He never won a pitching title and he led the league in wins and strikeouts just two times each and never in the same season. Even by advanced metrics, Schilling doesn’t have many league-leading performances apart from the five times he led the league in K/BB ratio. He never led the league in pitcher rWAR, ERA+ or adjusted pitching runs.

The former first baseman received a solid 28.2 percent of the vote in his first year on the ballot back in 2001, but has never come close to duplicating that kind of support in the many years since. His vote total has ebbed and flowed in the teens over the last decade, dropping to 13.2 percent in 2013. Mattingly is in real danger this year of not getting even the five percent of votes he needs to stay on the BBWAA ballot for a 15th and final time.

Despite an off-field rift with George Steinbrenner and the emergence of back issues that would eventually cut his career short, Mattingly continued to put up impressive numbers on offense through the end of the decade, hitting .313/.360/.498 from 1987-1989.

He broke the record that is ubiquitous with closers: He took over the all-time saves record in 1993 as he became the first reliever in MLB history to close out over 400 games. He kept going for a few years longer, finishing with 478 career saves. That record would stand for 13 years.

Smith led his league in saves four times over his career, with an ERA under 3.00 six times. His best year came in 1983 with the Cubs, when he posted a 1.65 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with a league-leading 29 saves.

His career OPS+ comes in at 110, which is the 17th best rate for any shortstop with at least 3000 plate appearance and just a hair below first-ballot Hall of Famer Cal Ripken who has a 112 wRC+ for his career. During his 1983-1990 peak he averaged an OPS+ of 124, an excellent level of offensive production for any position, but particularly impressive from a shortstop. Trammell didn’t post a .300 batting average over his full career, but he topped that mark seven times thanks to a strong combination of patience and contact ability. He walked 9.1 percent walk of the time over his career and struck out just 9.3 percent of the time. He topped 20 home runs just twice in his career, but he averaged 13 per 162 in 20 years in the majors. His highest single season stolen base total is just 30, but he stole 17 bases per 162 games.

On defense, Trammell doesn’t have the kind of reputation that has encouraged voters to overlook lesser hitters like Ozzie Smith, but he was firmly above-average there as well. Total Zone credits him with saving five runs per season with his glove, totaling 81 runs saved for the Tigers in his 20 years of service. He also impressed the managers who watched him play regularly, and picked up four Gold Gloves for his efforts.

The conflicting nature of Sosa’s resume might work against him. His traditional “baseball card” stats are impressive, whereas his advanced numbers leave a bit to be desired. Conversely, his status as a PED suspect is likely to alienate him from the old-school voters who might appreciate his home runs and RBI, while the new-school voters, who may be willing to overlook his drug-related transgressions, will scoff at his lackluster WAR and JAWS totals. Only a small minority of the electorate will see the best in Sosa while ignoring the worst.

Sosa’s case starts and ends with home runs. Sure, there was more to his career than just power -- he stole 234 bases, he rated as a fantastic defender in right field during his 20s, and he eventually developed good plate discipline in his early 30s. However, it is his 609 home runs (eighth on the all-time list) and his three seasons in excess of 63 long balls (there are only six such seasons in history) that drive his argument.

Whether you are looking at traditional metrics or advanced statistics, Clemens’ numbers place him in the upper echelon of pitchers. He led the league in ERA seven times in his 24-year-career, strikeouts five times, wins four times, winning percentage three times, ERA+ eight times, WHIP three times and strikeout-to-walk ratio four times. His career 139.4 rWAR is the third highest total in history. His 354 wins ranks ninth. His 143 career ERA+ is 11th all-time. His 708 adjusted pitching runs is the second highest number of runs saved in history based on linear weights, behind only Cy Young.

As long as voters continue to punish alleged steroid-users harshly in their selection process, Clemens will have a difficult time getting elected. Like Barry Bonds, few if any voters doubt his qualifications based on his numbers, but the way he achieved those numbers is certainly in question. If future voters take a less dramatic position on steroid use, he will certainly be elected at some point, but until then, his connection to PEDs will keep him out.

Barry Bonds is one of the best players in the history of baseball. One can count on a single hand the number of players in history who can stand shoulder to shoulder with him. He probably won’t be in the Hall of Fame anytime soon, though. He is the most polarizing figure in the most polarizing time in the history of the sport. It will likely be generations into the future before we can clearly evaluate the breadth and depth of Barry Bonds’ impact on the game of baseball.

Looking at Barry Bonds’ Baseball-Reference page boggles the mind. The grid of numbers is a daunting mosaic of factoids worthy of the cover of a Ripley’s Believe it or Not anthology. In 2004, he posted a line of .362/.609/.812. He walked in more than 30 percent of his plate appearances. In 2001, he hit 73 home runs, setting the single-season record. He produced over 12 WAR. He posted 16 seasons of over 6 WAR. His total value for his career is on par with the best of the best, holding company with the likes of Babe Ruth, Cy Young and Willie Mays.

Thomas broke into the league as a 22-year-old in a big way. He hit .330/.454/.529 with 21 extra-base hits in 240 plate appearances while walking nearly as many times as he struck out. It was enough for the No. 7 overall pick in the 1989 MLB First-Year Player Draft to earn a full-time spot with the White Sox heading into the 1991 season. Thomas responded by leading the league in on-base percentage and walks while hitting .318/.453/.553 with 32 home runs and finishing third in the MVP voting.

The Columbus, Ga., native’s terrific full-season debut began an incredible 10-year stretch in which he hit .320/.439/.581 with 337 home runs and walked 1,144 times while only striking out on 781 occasions.

While there are numerous players who divide voters and serve as a line of demarcation between old and new school voters, Glavine should serve as something of a unifier. By old school standards, he surpassed the 300-win barrier that has served as nearly a one-way ticket to enshrinement. On top of that, he totaled 10 All-Star team selections, as well as compiled some impressive stats -- 4,413â “ innings pitched (30th all time), led the league in starts six times, wins five times and started 682 games (12th all time). He also had endurance in his favor, as he didn’t land on the disabled list until his age-42 season.

“Compile” is an important word, though, as voters have made an effort to distinguish those who hung around for extended periods from those whose stars shone brightest during their careers. In essence, totals are important, but so is peak. Beyond that, though, a combination of the two is important.

Then came 1988.

The lumps that Maddux took as a rookie gave him some all-important experience. Those strikeouts never really surfaced, but beginning in his second full season, Maddux got a lot better at limiting walks. He allowed fewer than three free passes per nine innings, which contributed to an 18-8 record, 3.18 ERA and an accompanying All-Star selection in ‘88.