MLB Draft 2013

There was always a strong chance that Houston (Texas) St. Pius X quarterback and Texas A&M signee Kohl Stewart would opt to skip college football and play professional baseball instead. That possibility will become a reality in the near future.

Stewart held a press conference in College Station a day after he was selected as the fourth pick in the 2013 MLB Draft by the Minnesota Twins to speak about his future.

That made me wonder what I’d find if I approached the question from the other direction. Rather than looking at what kind of players come from the top draft picks, I thought I’d look at what draft picks the top players come from. To do this I decided to take the top three players at each position (plus one designated hitter) according to their accumulated wins above replacement (Baseball-Reference variety) since 2010, along with the top 20 pitchers by the same measure and see by what means they entered professional, affiliated baseball.

This is not meant to be a definitive list of the 45 best players in baseball, but it’s a quick, clear-cut group that is easily defined and gives us a solid sample. The 45 players I came up with, with their bWAR since 2010 in parentheses, are:

The draft was only partially successful at this, as the institution of a slotting system suggests, but over time it did cause clubs to improve at identifying talent. With the ability to cast a wide net removed, teams were forced to get their picks right if they wanted to keep talent coming to the major league team. A first-round pick in particular became an extremely valuable commodity. Prior to the first draft, it was speculated that only two out of 10 picks would make it to the majors. The first round would eventually mute such pessimistic assessments. For example, in each of the 10 drafts from 1999 to 2008 the vast majority of players selected with the first 30 picks reached the major leagues:

1999: 14 (top 10 6/10)

2000: 16 (5/10)

2001: 19 (7/10)

2002: 24 (8/10)

2003: 22 (7/10)

2004: 26 (8/10)

2005: 26 (9/10)

2006: 24 (9/10)

2007: 21 (9/10)

2008: 24 (9/10)

It’s hard to contextualize the MLB draft. In the NFL or NBA drafts, you’re generally getting players who will, at the least, step into a bench role and work their way towards starting, especially if you’re talking about first-round picks. In baseball, though, even the very best tend to spend at least some time in the minors before hitting up the majors, and the time in between signing and debuting tends to cloud just where and when said player came from.

This year’s draft is happening later on Thursday, though, so it’s time to add some context in for those of you trying to figure out just what your team might end up with. You might not all end up with brand new stars on your favorite team, but, as history tells us, a star player can come out of just about any spot in the first round.

The MLB 2013 First-Year Player Draft (technically called the Rule 4 draft) begins Thursday evening at 7 p.m. ET. We will be running a discussion and information-sharing thread throughout the day at Minor League Ball, so stop by and partake. I will be there much of the day leading the discussion.

The rumor mill is churning like crazy, to the point that previous mock drafts are most likely obsolete.

You would think an institution like the MLB draft would be simple to understand at this point, given it has existed for decades. Thanks to constant rule changes -- the 2013 draft is the third in three years with new wrinkles -- and the fact it isn’t structured at all like the drafts of other major sports, though, baseball’s draft takes some explanation. Consider this guide a starter kit that doubles as a refresher course.

A newish wrinkle to the draft is the budget. In years past, MLB recommended values for each draft pick based on where they were selected. Teams didn’t have to follow these recommendations, though, and the only penalty for failure to adhere to them was a stern look from commissioner Bud Selig. Now, though, the most recent collective bargaining agreement changed that, and made it so that the values weren’t just recommended, but were considered something of a soft cap on spending. Each pick has an assigned value, with the first overall being worth the most, and going down from there.

A little over a week ago, we compiled five different mock drafts together in order to try to figure out a consensus pick for each of the 33 selections in the first round of Thursday’s 2013 MLB draft. Now, with that draft just one day away, there have been plenty of updates to those five lists, meaning our consensus no longer represents what we wanted it to.

The seven mocks come from Baseball America’s Jim Callis, ESPN’s Keith Law, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, SB Nation’s own Minor League Ball, MLB Draft Insider’s (and ESPN’s) Chris Crawford, FOX/Scout.com’s Kiley McDaniel, and Sports Illustrated’s Dave Perkin.

With the latest collective bargaining agreement between Major League Baseball and the Players’ Association, the draft rules changed once again. No longer would there be slot recommendations, but instead, each draft pick would have a dollar value assigned to it. Teams didn’t have to spend that exact amount, as they could go over or even under, but as there was something of a hard-ish cap on each team’s overall spending, they had to be careful.

In short, teams can’t just ignore pick values like they could slot recommendations, because if they overspend on one pick, they need to go under value elsewhere in order to avoid penalties such as lost future draft picks. So, with that in mind, what kind of draft budgets are the 30 clubs looking at heading into Thursday’s 2013 MLB draft.

On Thursday, June 6, Major League Baseball will kick off their annual draft. This will bring a new wave of college and high school talent to the ranks of the pros, and that means there are all kinds of new names and faces for baseball fans to learn. We’ve got you covered, though, as we’ve put together scouting reports on some of the more notable players in the draft.

As a guide, we’re following our consensus first-round draft list, based on the mock drafts of experts around the industry. (Note: “HS” is high school.)

The 2013 MLB Draft gets started in less than a week, beginning next Thursday evening. Here is a look at story lines to watch over the next week, along with some additional names to be aware of beyond the obvious players at the top of the draft.

Keith Law of ESPN, in his most recent mock draft released yesterday, has Moran in the first spot, which would have ripple effects all down the draft.

Why Moran, though? Why would the Astros take someone who, according to consensus, is more like the fifth pick or maybe even later, depending on who you ask? It has everything to do with the new draft systems introduced by the latest collective bargaining agreement.

The last version of the draft had recommended values attached to each pick, known as slot values. They were just a recommendation, though: commissioner Bud Selig would shake his head in disapproval in a team’s desire to spend money and better their future, but a finger wag and a sideways look were about as much punishment as was bestowed. Now, though, teams are allotted a specific amount of money based on where they pick and how often, and there are penalties such as lost future draft picks for going too far over the limits.

Mock drafts are popping up all over the place this month, as the Major League Baseball 2013 draft takes place starting next week on June 6. College baseball doesn’t get the same exposure as college basketball or football, so for many fans, even hardcore ones, the first time they see a draft prospects name is in a mock draft.

With that in mind, we’ve combined the lists of five different analysts and sites together to come up with something approaching consensus, as of this morning, for a first round with ever-changing mock draft lists. Jim Callis of Baseball America, Keith Law of ESPN, SB Nation’s own Minor League Ball, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, and Sports Illustrated’s Dave Perkin had their picks thrown in a spreadsheet so we could see who this group sees as most likely to go at each spot. The results are below:

With the 2013 MLB Draft rapidly approaching, it’s time to look at many of the talents who could be drafted. On Thursday, we looked in on key pitchers to know, and today we’ll check out hitters likely to be drafted on the first day.

Kris Bryant, 3B, University of San Diego: The best bat in the draft, Bryant is a 6-5, 205 bruiser with outstanding right-handed power and the ability to hit the ball out of any park to all fields. He also has good pure hitting skills, controls the strike zone well, and has a chance to stick at third. Even if he moves over to first base, this is an All-Star caliber bat. He’s hit more home runs this year than most college teams.

Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville HS, Loganville, Georgia: The red-haired, right-handed, 6-1, 190 pound outfielder has thrived in high school and may have even more bat speed than Bryant, although his approach to hitting (understandably) is less refined. He may wind up in left field, but his bat will certainly play there given his outstanding power potential. His makeup is considered a big plus.

Reese McGuire, C, Kentwood HS, Covington, Washington: High school catching is a strength in this draft and McGuire is the best of the lot, a 6-1, 190 pound lefty hitter with athleticism and excellent defensive skills. His hitting is considered solid and this complete package should take him off the board before the middle of the first round, perhaps even in the top five.

Austin Meadows, OF, Grayson HS, Loganville, Georgia: Often compared to high school competitor Frazier, Meadows is a lefty hitter at 6-3, 210 pounds. His across-the-board tools may be a bit stronger than Frazier’s, but his bat has less zip in it and he plays with less energy. He still projects as a major-league regular and is a lock to go in the top half of the draft.