2014 ALCS Royals vs. Orioles preview Q&A

The Royals: The Royals used their superior pitching, ridiculous defense, and bunting -- oh so much bunting -- to earn themselves a chance at the AL pennant.

The Orioles: The Orioles won the AL East in convincing fashion because no one tried to stop them. That includes your precious Red Sox and Yankees, and the Tigers were no match for them in the ALDS, either.

Q: I love baseball and I have been paying attention all season for but some reason I think I’ll quit now that they’re 97 percent of the way finished. Please advise.

A: I have hate-watched the end of the re-imagined Battlestar Galactica enough to know exactly what you’re going through, buddy. This is different, though! Regardless of what happens, the ending is going to be new, it is going to be different, and it can only go one of two ways so you won’t be surprised by the outcome or still be angry years later because of wide-open plot holes that just won’t fill.

Speaking of television, I’m not sure it existed the last time the O’s and Royals were both relevant.* The Orioles haven’t won a World Series since 1983. The Royals haven’t won since 1985. Baltimore made it to the playoffs on just three other occasions in the intervening years, while Kansas City earned a playoff berth exactly zero times. This isn’t an underdog vs. favorite story. This is merely a match-up to determine who gets to be the lovable underdog in the World Series. On top of that, these two teams have never faced each other in the postseason before. They missed each other when they were both good, and then they were both very, very bad for a long time after. It’s one of the fresher ALCS match-ups you could script, and here it is for us to enjoy, not to be ruined until one of the least-fresh teams in the game faces them in the Fall Classic. That’s when you find out the World Series exists mostly so Ron Moore can tell you he’s afraid of his Roomba.

*Humorous exaggeration. You did have to record your World Series games on VHS, though, which is, like, the same thing.

A: Matt Wieters: Tommy John surgery. Chris Davis: serving a suspension for amphetamines, and the O’s won’t put him on the ALCS roster even with it ending. Manny Machado: knee surgery number two. On the pitching side, you won’t see Ubaldo Jimenez because he was a disaster, and you won’t see Johan Santana because it’s Johan Santana and we’re long past 2010, if the whole Royals-Orioles ALCS thing didn’t clue you in.

The Orioles still have good players, though, even ones you know. Adam Jones is still a fine defender in center who can hit a ball a long way, Nick Markakis is having something of a career revival, and Nelson Cruz has been everything the Orioles hoped for and a little bit more after signing a one-year, make-good contract this winter. You might not know who Steve Pearce is, but that’s okay. You’ll probably remember him once he sends a ball into orbit, or when I reveal to you that he hit .293/.373/.556 this year in 102 games.

The pitching is also strong now that Jimenez has been locked in a room somewhere. There isn’t a stud here, not unless the O’s let Kevin Gausman take a turn, but Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, and Wei-Yin Chen are all above-average arms who can keep things close for the offense, and while it pays to be skeptical of Bud Norris on most occasions, the Royals aren’t exactly an offensive threat.

The Orioles are probably the more balanced of the two clubs and absolutely have the superior offense -- as did every single other team in the American League -- but this match-up is still closer than that makes things sound.

A: You know, you have just saved me so much time. In case others at home haven’t been paying as much attention as you, though: The Royals have James Shields, a total workhorse who had yet another high-quality season in 2014. Jason Vargas is a pitcher the Royals are going to want to keep out of homer-friendly Camden Yards, but he can get the job done. Yordano Ventura is one of the game’s more exciting young hurlers, and if the Royals decide that the Not Injured Danny Duffy can take a turn against the O’s, that’s just one more great arm at their disposal. If it’s not Duffy, it will be Jeremy Guthrie, who survived the hitter-friendly horrors of the AL East and Camden Yards for years before he was enlisted by Kansas City.

A: Well... maybe. They have to take care of Baltimore’s own pen full of twenty-somethings throwing a billion miles per hour before they can fully lay claim to that title. When the starters come out, you’re going to start seeing a lot of failed starters -- Wade Davis on the Royals, Andrew Miller, Tommy Hunter and Zach Britton on the Orioles -- coming out to show off why they still have big-league gigs anyway. The Orioles also have Darren O’Day while the Royals have Greg Holland, Kelvin Herrera, and 2014 draft pick and College World Series participant Brandon Finnegan at their disposal. There are going to be a whole lot of late-inning strikeouts in this series.

The bullpens might be where this is all decided. Both teams have good rotations -- the Royals the better one, but the Orioles have the easier task ahead of them. There could be quite a few low-scoring games going into the late innings that are decided based on which bullpen had it more that day. Given both of these teams are vying for that underdog title, that’s going to be stressful, tense, enjoyable baseball even for non-fans.

Q: I have come to respect your statistical information. Please, share your mathematical wisdom with me.

A: I liked you better when you were mean.

The Orioles offense shined against bullpens in 2014. They were good against starters, posting a 106 OPS+ against them, but teed off on bullpens to earn a 112 OPS+ against relievers in 2,089 plate appearances. As you might have guessed from the above, the Royals’ pen is not so easily defeated. They were as good at preventing offense as the Orioles’ hitters were at creating it against bullpens: this is some unstoppable force vs. immovable object stuff we’re going to witness.

The Royals have hit .240/.304/.367 in their four playoff games. That’s a small sample, of course, but we are talking about a team that still hasn’t hit 100 homers even if you count their four playoff dingers, so it’s not like the expectation should be that they are suddenly going to mash -- especially not against O’s pitching. That said, though, they held the high-powered Angels to a .170/.248/.311 line en route to sweeping them, and have the arms to do the same to the less-impressive Baltimore lineup, so maybe they don’t need to hit. Not hitting has brought them this far!

Q: Did I come on too strong? I promise I’m just humoring you and still hate numbers.

A: The Royals’ defense saved them on multiple occasions in the playoffs already. That defense is still intact, and if Lorenzo Cain can keep making circus catches, the Orioles will learn to hate him the same way I’ve decided the Angels do.

A: The Royals can’t hit, but they have the speed and enough singles to score as much as their ridiculous pitching staff needs them to. The Orioles don’t have an obvious, exploitable weakness like the Angels did, but they’ll lose to Kansas City just the same.