MLB 2014 NLDS Preview: Giants vs. Nationals Q&A

The Nationals: The deepest rotation in the National League and possibly the game. They also have one of the deepest lineups in the playoffs, too.

The Giants: Team that stopped being scary at the end of May, but crawled to the finish line. They’re adept at trolling baseball, and they’re 1-for-1 on that count so far.

Q: So the Nationals have some good bowlers, eh?

Indeed. Manager Matt Williams is going to use Tanner Roark, who had 15 wins, a 2.85 ERA, and a 131 ERA+, out of the bullpen. He would probably be a candidate to start Game 1 for the Giants, and yet Williams doesn’t think he’s one of the four best starters available to him. Gio Gonzalez will be the fourth starter, and even though he had something of a down year by his standards, his strikeout-to-walk ratio hints that he was at least partially unlucky. The Nats have an embarrassment of riches.

Stephen Strasburg has probably crossed the threshold of rising star and is now firmly on the star side of the ledger. He pitched more than 200 innings for the first time in his career, and he finished strong. After the Giants hit him hard on August 24, Strasburg had a 1.13 ERA in six starts, striking out 40 and walking three over 39⅔ innings.

I mean, look at this mutant:

He’s basically a closer who pitches multiple innings, with stuff that’s almost unrivaled in baseball. One caveat might be that he tends to throw a lot of pitches -- he threw eight full innings just once this year, and the Nationals’ bullpen isn’t quite as dominant as the rotation. Another caveat might be that the second he steps on a postseason mound he disappears and leaves a pile of uniform on the mound -- voooomp -- like Obi-Won being hit by a lightsaber, and the Nationals brass will get to say “SEE? SEE?” for decades

Jordan Zimmermann could be the most underrated pitcher in baseball , though that might not be the case after his dominant no-hitter on the last day of the regular season. Doug Fister might be the best of all of them, considering he had the best ERA+ of the lot and the best control and command on a staff filled with pitchers with superlative control and command.

Q: Got it, so bet money on them, not the Giants. The series will be over in three games, is that what you’re saying?
Well, no. The Giants are at a substantial disadvantage considering their best pitcher (Madison Bumgarner) will get to pitch only once, but most of these position players have faced these odds before. The lineup is mostly different from the one that shocked the Phillies in 2010, but it’s also almost identical to the group that ruined the 2012 Reds’ season, which was one of the greatest all-around pitching seasons in recent memory. That list of great team pitching seasons also includes this year’s Nationals, so you can see what the Giants are up against.

The Giants’ rotation isn’t bad after Bumgarner. It’s just uninspiring, at least when you start tallying up what they’ve done this year. Jake Peavy was a gift from Valhalla after Matt Cain went down, and while he probably isn’t as good as his 2.17 ERA in San Francisco would indicate, he certainly feels more comfortable pitching in the National League for the manager who raised him.

This brings us to Tim Hudson, who scares the bejeepers out of the Nationals fans, even though he’s been completely ineffective over the last two months of the season. Why? Microsplits!

Is Hudson really magic against the Nationals? Do the Nats really have a problem with sinkers around the plate? Or can any starting pitcher throw five consecutive good outings against a team and give the opposing fanbase that perception? The Giants are hoping it’s the first two.

The Giants will send either Yusmeiro Petit -- who misses as many bats as Strasburg, despite throwing 10 mph slower -- or Ryan Vogelsong -- who doesn’t -- out for Game 4.

Q: So the bowling is in the Nationals’ favor, and I guess the batters are, too?
According to the unadjusted stats, just a bit. The Nationals have a team OPS of .714, with the Giants coming in at .699, just above the league average. However, that doesn’t account for AT&T Park, which has played like one of the more extreme pitcher’s parks in history over the last few years. When you add the park into the mix, the Giants’ grades come out ahead in some categories and just behind in other:

OPS+
Nationals: 96
Giants: 99

wRC+
Nationals: 99
Giants: 101

wOBA
Nationals: .317
Giants: .308

Q: Oh, well when you put it that way ...
Higher is better with those stats. The Giants might be a tick better, but it’s close. They’re without Angel Pagan, though, and probably without Michael Morse, both of whom helped contribute to those stats.

Q: Can you use something without stats?
Sure. The Nationals can run. The Giants cannot. The Nats didn’t just steal a lot, they were safe a lot. You don’t need stats to know that the Nationals are one of the best baserunning teams in the game. (But if you really, really want them, the stats confirm that, too.)

Hell, I don’t know. You want a start in which the Giants hit Strasburg hard? I can find that. Want a start where the Giants beat Fister? I can find one in the regular season and one in the postseason. Want a start in which Jordan Zimmermann got crushed? Sure I can ... you know, I’m not sure if the Giants have ever scored a run off Zimmermann. If they did, it was probably on a balk or something.

The point is that the Nationals are the better all-around team, but it’s not like the Giants are the Cubs. In a best-of-five baseball series, there’s a remarkable potential for baseball.

That written, Nats in four. The home games and the absurd pitchers make it hard to pick another outcome on anything like a rational basis.

Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to put on a video of Cody Ross hitting home runs against Roy Halladay as if that means anything.

Q: What’s a home run?

It’s like a trenchy gooner in cricket, but with more cheering. They’re awesome. Enjoy the postseason.