Yordano Ventura and the luck of the Royals

Let’s talk a moment about the Royals’ shit luck.

There’s more to the story than that, a somber slapstick of Baird and Herk, of Moore and more Moore. But right now, focus on the shit luck. For example, here’s a list of all the Royals’ pitching prospects to make Baseball America’s top-100 list in the past 20 years:

Jeff Granger
Jim Pittsley
Glendon Rusch
Orber Moreno
Jeff Austin
Dan Reichert
Kyle Snyder
Chris George
Mike MacDougal
Jimmy Gobble
Zack Greinke
Luke Hochevar
Dan Cortes
Noel Arguelles
Aaron Crow
Mike Montgomery
Chris Dwyer
Jake Odorizzi
Danny Duffy
John Lamb
Kyle Zimmer
Yordano Ventura

Zack Greinke sticks out, of course. He’s the exception to the rule. Who takes second place? Probably Aaron Crow, a pretty good middle reliever. Glendon Rusch and his career 5.04 ERA are probably third, unless you want to give Luke Hochevar credit for his single good season. There are still some pitchers on the list with a chance to be good, though a couple of them are with other organizations. But you checked out after the sentence, “Glendon Rusch and his career 5.04 ERA are probably third.”

There was probably bad baseballing involved in a lot of those cases. Bad managing, bad general managing, bad coaching, bad development, bad medicine. Bad everything. But there was also more than a heaping helping of shit luck. There should have been at least one more useful starting pitcher buried in there, a pitching seed pure enough to withstand the Royals’ incompetent overwatering and lack of sunlight. At least one seed that would sprout just long enough to get eaten by a vole.

Instead, it was Greinke and nothing else. And even then, the statistically inclined always noted Greinke’s shit luck when it came to his raw ERA. Even when the Royals hit on a young arm, they somehow managed to miss.

That’s a primer on the Royals’ shit luck. It wasn’t the only wrong. It wasn’t the primary wrong. But considering how messed up everything else was, it really wasn’t fair. There should have been another competent pitcher mixed in, even after accounting for standard pitcher attrition, then multiplying by bad-organization-bonus-point attrition. Jonah Keri talked to Billy Beane recently, and this passage is relevant to every team, not just the Royals:

Beane cited Oakland’s run of eight consecutive first- or second-place finishes (1999 to 2006), a health-aided stretch that ended as soon as that injury luck ran out. “I don’t have a secret formula for that, and I don’t know who does,” Beane said. “You’re never going to correct it, at least with the information we have now. So you have to ask, ‘How do we minimize the damage, and build in some insurance policies along the way?’”

The insurance policies were usually various incarnations of Blake Stein, which worked as well as expected, and the luck was never there for the Royals. Or it was there, but it was ... well, you know.

Direct your attention to the bottom of that list, then. Kyle Zimmer is still a top prospect, but we’re here to spread the good word of Yordano Ventura, who is going to win the fifth spot in the rotation. If you’re not familiar with Ventura, here’s a quick study:

The radar guns weren’t active for that telecast, but Ventura regularly hits 100 m.p.h. with his four-seamer. He can do this, too:

You are rooting for Yordano Ventura.

You’re rooting for him because he’s listed at 5’11”, which probably means he’s closer to 5’9”. Short pitchers are always more entertaining.

You’re rooting for Yordano Ventura because he throws 100 miles per hour, which is never unimpressive. It was even cool when Armando Benitez did it. It’s cool when anyone does it.

You’re rooting for Yordano Ventura, even if you’re an Indians or Tigers fan. If you need to balance things out in the interest of the rivalry, root harder against another player instead.

You’re rooting for him even if you don’t care about the Royals. Or baseball at all, even. Because you’re certainly not rooting for shit luck. That guy is a total bully. He’s messed with you and your team before, certainly.

If you’re not rooting for Ventura, at least he’ll be pretty cool to watch. The Royals made a decision that will make baseball more interesting, and they deserve something for that. Karma, if you will. You can call it luck, too. They’re a little overdue. But maybe he’ll just be good. Watch that video again, and you can’t help but dream big. Maybe he’ll be a star because he’s overflowing with talent. Maybe the talented pitching prospect will become a valuable contributor, like they do for the most of the other 29 teams. Leave the luck out of it.

Please.