2014 players at career crossroads (Oedipus the Ballplayer)

Oedipus was a guy who had a lot of problems, what with being abandoned as a baby, the father-killing, mother-marrying, and self-blinding. Not a charmed life. While his judgment was terrible, he was pretty handy with a riddle, outfoxing the Sphinx, who asked him to identify, “What is that which in the morning goeth upon four feet; upon two feet in the afternoon; and in the Evening upon three?”

“Man,” said Oedipus, and I guess the Sphinx flew away or died of shock or something, while Oedipus hangs out in Thebes and fulfills some jerk’s prophecy.

It is by way of this tortured literary reference that I introduce you ballplayers at the three different stages of baseball life, virtual babies who will crawl into the majors and contribute at some point this year, mature players who face a crossroad to determine their path going forward, and baseball’s old men who are very possibly on their way out.

The hype that built up the Matt Wieters legend before he even debuted in 2009 was completely unfair to the young catcher, and is why some still see Wieters as a disappointment. Fantastic campaigns in 2011 and 2012, and almost nine wins above replacement between the two, made it look like the catcher was on the verge of becoming a perennial All-Star. Last year’s .235/.287/.415 performance was a huge disappointment again, then, for the 27-year-old. Wieters has just one more year of team control left after 2014, and needs a big season for the Orioles to consider giving him the long-term extension his skills warrant, but his performance hasn’t necessarily earned.

At some point, we may have to consider the possibility that the Marlins are just going to let Dobbs keep playing until his flesh has rotted away and his bones have worn to dust. Dobbs has carved out a remarkable career as a pinch-hitter (he’s appeared in more games as a pinch-hitter than as a position player) and part-time corner infielder despite the fact that, outside of 2008, he has never had an above-average season at the plate in 10 seasons, and has never been worth more than a win above replacement, though he has had the decency to provide his lack of production cheaply, a stellar trait in the eyes of Jeffrey Loria and his Miami front office.

Wong, who has jumped through the Cardinals’ minor league system, has a strong feel for the game and is a solid hitter, but none of his other tools are above average. That could still make for a pretty good player, especially one in his pre-arbitration years. Mark Ellis is on standby in case Wong falters.

You saw Bogaerts briefly at the end of last year, and then he held his own through the postseason. This gave the Red Sox enough confidence in the 21 year old that they parted ways with Stephen Drew (more on him in a second). Bogaerts combines plus power with an extremely patient approach and enough defense to hold down the position for several years. He’s the odds-on favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year award, especially if he starts the season strong.

I feel awful for Drew, who is at such a crossroad that he doesn’t even know where he’s going to play this year. He’s either going to be a real bargain, or is going to wind up missing half the season, and who knows what kind of effect that’s going to have on his career going forward?

If I’m being honest (and when am I ever not honest with you?) Jeter’s the entire reason we’re torturing this Oedipus metaphor. A legend who is one of the five or so best shortstops in baseball history (even before you add in his postseason heroics), Jeter is one of the players that statheads like me have consistently underrated. Meanwhile, his popularity and public image remain relatively clean after almost 20 years. That’s simply a remarkable streak in a culture that aims to tear down celebrities and heroes immediately after building them up. Baseball would probably have been ok in spite of the PED controversy even if Jeter hadn’t been around, but his presence as the game’s most popular and recognizable player certainly made it easier to sell the sport as relatively clean in the wake of every scandal. You don’t have to love him, but after more than 3300 hits, 250 homers, 70 wins above replacement, 13 All-Star appearances, and five world championships, if you can’t appreciate Jeter’s swan song, I question whether you’re even a baseball fan.

He isn’t on the 40-man roster yet because the Astros seem to be determined to toy with him for as long as possible. Nevertheless, it’s hard to believe that the 24-year-old won’t debut in Houston this summer. He finished last year playing almost half of a season at Triple-A Oklahoma City, where he absolutely destroyed the Pacific Coast League, hitting 18 homers and posted an OPS of 1.050 while playing a very strong center field. He swings and misses a lot, but so does everyone on the Astros, and Springer has the physical tools to overcome that. With Dexter Fowler in the fold, Houston has an excuse to hold Springer back and gain an extra year of service time out of the bargain, but Springer’s play essentially demands he will be given a look after six weeks or so of additional seasoning. Fowler shouldn’t be house hunting in Houston.

Everything worked against Nelson Cruz this offseason. He was suspended for the final 50 games of last season for being a client of the Biogenesis Clinic, he is almost 34, he gives back almost as many runs on defense as he contributes on offense, and the draft-pick compensation attached to him meant that signing him carried a real long-term cost. He can still presumably crush the ball, as evidenced by his 27 homers in 456 plate appearances, but his only hope of a long-term contract next offseason is to hit enough to make losing that draft pick worth the risk. Otherwise, the Orioles will offer him arbitration again, or (if he struggles) he’ll be forced into a one-year make-good contract with very little security.

Ichiro says he wants to play for years to come, but barring some kind of incredible turnaround, it’s hard to see anybody signing him to more than a minor league deal next offseason to be a fourth or fifth outfielder. The 40-year-old hasn’t been productive since 2010, his on-base percentage slipped below .300 last year, and his strikeout rate jumped. Honestly, the Yankees should be bidding farewell to two Hall of Fame players this year, and Ichiro deserves his due as well.

Last year, Johnson was traded by the Marlins (no state income tax) to the Blue Jays, made four starts, hit the DL with arm trouble, made another 12 starts, and then went down with even more arm trouble. When he was on the mound, he put up a 6.20 ERA thanks mostly to the almost four percent of hitters he faced taking him yard. Now 30, Johnson has signed a one-year deal with the Padres to try and put up just the third healthy season of his career, or at least to prove that he can be dominant when he’s able to pitch. Injured again and unlikely to pitch before May or June, one senses his reputation as a great pitcher who can’t stay healthy is about to turn into, “Broken down old pitcher who used to be good.”

In the summer of 2001, I had just graduated from college and was living in a cabin in the northern woods of Wisconsin, listening to Twins games on a station out of Duluth until the sun went down and the local solar-powered antennae all conked out and fooling myself into thinking I was writing the next great American novel. LaTroy Hawkins was a 28-year-old failed starting pitching prospect trying and failing to hold down the ninth inning for an upstart Twins team. It got so bad I would be glad when the radio quit working around the seventh inning so that I didn’t have to hear about Hawkins’ inevitable meltdown. He finished that year with 28 saves in 37 chances and a 5.96 ERA and lost his job to Eddie Guardado. He recovered, survived, and thrived for another 13 years as one of the most reliable right-handed relievers in baseball, will almost certainly become the 16th pitcher in baseball history to appear in more than 1000 games, and is probably going to close for the Rockies this year. I never did finish that terrible novel, but Hawkins gives me hope that maybe I can still recover from that.