Dreams of a Horsehide Fiend

As Ian Malinowski observed, “It’s one thing for a small-market team to find success and quite another to sustain it.” As David Price’s salary inexorably rises through arbitration and free-agent eligibility (the latter after the 2015 season), it’s difficult to see how a team with a budget of around $80 million can retain a pitcher who will command somewhere between $20 and $30 million on the open market. As such, Price’s days in Florida are probably numbered, but looking on the bright side, at least their failure to find the right deal this winter means the Rays and their ace get at least one more chance to grab for the ring together.

With all due respect to what Billy Beane and pals have accomplished on a shoestring in Oakland, we don’t have to make things more complicated than they are. The Red Sox spend, but in the aftermath of the 2012 house-cleaning deal with the Dodgers, they spent wisely. A good deal of their success has been dependent on smart signings and a farm system that is the envy of every team except perhaps the Cardinals and should shame any team that claims it can’t draft well because success in the standings punishes them with low picks. The Sox might not defend defend their title so easily; even with Xander Bogaerts taking over at short, seven lineup regulars are 30 or older. Should they falter, though, a plethora of potentially superb replacements are but a phone call away.

Anyone familiar with the Bible knows the tragic dénouement to the story of Moses: The lawgiver, having offended the Almighty, successfully leads his people to the Promised Land but is not allowed to enter it himself and dies in the desert. Buck Showalter has helped rebuild four franchises, but three of them have parted with him just as they were on the verge of seeing his efforts pay off. Showalter’s fifth season with the Orioles will mark his longest stay with any one organization, but can he finally take a team all the way before it’s time to move on?

At times it seemed as if the entire Yankees offseason might come down to the resolution of the Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes, but of course the Yankees were busy in other areas, goosing the roster with a slew of veterans. Some may see this as another example of the Yankees hogging the best talent by means of their financial advantages, but the truth is with the influx of local television money into the game, that financial advantage may be less than it has been at any time in the last 100 years. It also takes two to tango -- when you’re talking $150 million, what’s a million more or less? “Free agent” contains the word “free” for a reason, and Tanaka made his own choice.

No, it wasn’t the LeBron James decision, but one year after the Blue Jays raided the Marlins roster for a huge haul of key veterans, career backup Navarro represents the sole significant upgrade made by the Blue Jays this winter -- and even that wouldn’t mean much if J.P. Arencibia hadn’t approached historically awful in 2013. Something is always better than nothing, so whether Navarro regresses to his unimpressive career norms is almost irrelevant, but the starting rotation remains an open wound that a slightly upgraded offense won’t do a thing to help.

With his Cy Young Award and dominant postseason pitching, Max Scherzer’s accomplishments have finally matched the future projected for him when the Arizona Diamondbacks drafted him with the 11th-overall pick of the 2006 amateur draft. With his celebrity pushing him into the same lofty realm as that of Stephen Strasburg and Yu Darvish, he’ll have to be compensated appropriately, of course. But negotiations over a new contract broke down at the end of spring training and will not be resumed until season’s end, leaving the pitcher’s continuance in Tigers togs an open question.

Chris Getz, depicted above in a characteristic pose, has gone to Toronto, replaced by veteran Omar Infante. Far be it from us to pin decades of futility on a single player, but Getz’s four years with the Royals, during which time he hit an anemic .248/.305/.295, are symbolic of a team that, whatever improvements it has made it recent seasons, has often had a hard time getting out of its own way. Since the great Frank White’s career ended in 1990, the Royals have barely had what you might call a regular second baseman -- Getz played the third-most games of any KC keystoner in that time, trailing only the similarly hitless Carlos Febles and Mark Grudzielanek, who at least hit .300, however soft, in his three seasons with the club. Infante isn’t Rogers Horsnby, but by Royals standards he’s a huge upgrade.

Who can resist a call-back to “Major League?” Surely not Terry Francona, though he might not laugh as much once he realizes that fictional Indians manager Lou Brown, for all the depravations inflicted on his team, has more pitching at his command than Tito does at his.

Adam Dunn went Hollywood this spring, taking a little time off from camp to attend the Oscars due to his investment in “Dallas Buyers Club.” Though few fans might think so, his absence left his team a little underdressed. Dunn’s .197 average in three seasons with the White Sox is disappointing, and any time the team put a glove on his hand its doing itself a disservice. Still, inasmuch as the acquisition of Jose Abreu might have given the club another reliable power source, the team is still too right-handed and the offense hardly finished. While the club will undoubtedly easily find a hitter with a higher average to take Dunn’s place, the 75 home runs and 181 walks he produced over the last two seasons may be harder to come by.

That which survives: Ron Gardenhire enters his 13th season as manager of the Twins this year despite three consecutive seasons of between 96 and 99 losses. Gardenhire used to be an active manager, one who loved his sacrifice bunts. In recent seasons he’s been quieter, like the Twins overall, embracing (possibly for the better) a laissez-faire tactical approach that matches the indifferent roster he’s been handed by the front office.

Given the sheer number of injuries they’ve had this spring, the proper reference here might not have been to the old pulp westerns, but rather to old radio, and specifically to 1933’s Lone Ranger (who came out of Detroit, of all places, not Texas). The Rangers had a positive offseason, adding offense and making room for top prospect Jurickson Profar. Now he, and seemingly everyone else (including, at this writing, Darvish, albeit in a minor way) is hurt, and in the short term the team will be less about dominating and more about surviving until rescue comes. Hi-yo, Rougned Odor!

“Liiiiiiive!” screams Dr. Billy Beanenstein as his patchwork lineup once again contends for an AL West title. Hey, science may not always be pretty, but for the past two seasons it has dialed up 90-plus wins. Maybe the Yankees and Dodgers would turn up their surgically-enhanced noses at second-chance players like Brandon Moss and John Jaso, but damn it, they work when used appropriately. The mad scientist’s next mission: get the team past losing starting pitchers Jarrod Parker for the season and A.J. Griffin for at least part of April.

Warning: This illustration may be considered a mere theory in some sections of the country, so voice it only in safe company, like among baseball fans, where it is proven, incontrovertible fact.

...And absolutely no one else. Maybe the fans will be satisfied with someone interesting to look at other than King Felix and the Moose.

It is perhaps not fair to imply that the Astros’ rebuilding is starting from literally nothing. After all, they have a lovely ballpark, not an empty field. Still, 111 losses is, if not a record, historic in its own way, about a team can be in the age of the draft, free agency, and international scouting. This was special -- and it also makes sense. While it was undoubtedly no fun for anyone involved, fans and team alike, signing a few of the Scott Feldman types the Astros have signed for this season wouldn’t have made more than a marginal difference. Now the top prospects are a year closer, role models are required, and the baby steps towards respectability can begin.

Here’s what the presidents’ race at Nationals Park might look like if run by actual presidents instead of rubberheads. The Nationals needed to bring a similar feeling of verisimilitude to their supposedly pennant-ready roster after a disappointing 86-76 season. GM Mike Rizzo lived up to the challenge, acquiring starting pitcher Doug Fister from the Tigers in a trade widely viewed as a steal. Now all the Nationals seemingly need is health, a quality the roster was missing the last two seasons.

The Braves’ February spree of locking up their best young players largely bypassed Jason Heyward. Yes, they bought out his last two years of arbitration, but the defensively-excellent outfielder will reach free agency on schedule after the 2015 season.

It’s not the same old apple rising: For the first time since the Madoff scam engulfed the Mets, the organization added some veteran talent in the offseason, bringing in outfielders Curtis Granderson and Chris Young and starting pitcher Bartolo Colon. Sure, Colon is 41 and displaces more tonnage than the HMS Dreadnought, Young is a career disappointment coming off a .280 on-base percentage, and Granderson has hit .217/.296/.440 since July ‘12, but all signs of life are welcome.

The average age of Phillies position players last year was 30. Their pitchers were 29. Most of last season’s cast has returned this year, and oddly enough they are a year older than they were in 2013. Major additions included Marlon Byrd (36) and A.J. Burnett (37). There is a trend here, and it’s not hard to see what it is: in 2014, every day is Old Timer’s Day in Philadelphia.

No major league owner of recent vintage has done a better job of embodying Randy Newman’s Reagan-era anthem “It’s Money That Matters” than Marlins owner Jeff Loria. No owner is operating a charity, and they’re all entitled to make a profit, but Loria doesn’t even make a pretense of wanting to win. It’s all about exploitation, and any pleasure the fans derive from the product is purely incidental.

The Cardinals have been one of the most successful, if not the most successful franchise of the 21st century. They have the second-highest winning percentage but tied the Yankees for the most World Series appearances with four (going 2-2). Who has been the most valuable Cardinal in that time? Albert Pujols, obviously, followed by Jim Edmonds. Molina, with his combination of offense, defense, and surprising neck tattoos, is third -- and since Pujols left for Anaheim, an easy number one.

Andrew McCutchen, reigning NL MVP, faces a Sisyphean task in trying to keep the resurgent Pirates on track given a quiet winter in which no major additions were made. However, with top prospects such as outfielder Gregory Polanco and starting pitcher Jameson Taillon almost ready, the decision not to bolster the roster with veteran talent may come to be seen as an act of patience rather than stinginess.

Ryan Braun got off to a torrid start in spring training, quieting, at least for awhile, those detractors who will look to jeer him as a pharmaceutically-created fake. However, his production may recover faster than his reputation after one of the most hypocritical performances of an athlete in recent memory, vehemently denying his usage until he accepted a 65-game ban.

Rookie outfielder Billy Hamilton is one of the fastest players to grace the major leagues in some time, and he promises to enliven an offense that played station-to-station baseball last year. The question is whether he will hit enough to be an effective leadoff man -- the .256/.308/.343 he hit at Triple-A Louisville last year opened up questions as to whether pitchers will knock the bat out of his hands in the bigs.

The Cubs hope to avoid their fifth consecutive fifth-place finish in the NL Central in 2014, but even should they escape that fate, a return to the playoffs for an extended run (they made it to the seventh game of the NLCS in 2003) still seems a faraway goal.

It’s time for Yasiel Puig to be “Big” in Los Angeles, which is to say that his play over a full season will achieve the consistency and level of concentration equivalent to the hype. After a historic start to his major league career, he slid off to levels that were still solid but allowed his various gaffes to overwhelm perceptions of his value. Now the man-child will have to grow up enough to provide 162 games of star-level performances, but can he do it?

Hunter Pence may have nightmare eyes, but in reality it wasn’t the offense that devoured the Giants’ chances last year, it was the pitching staff. The Giants have thrived on their pitching in recent years, with Tim Lincecum’s two Cy Young campaigns and several seasons by Matt Cain that were of almost that same quality. The rotation came apart last year, with only Madison Bumgarner holding up his end of the bargain with a 2.77 ERA. In raw terms, last year’s rotation ERA of 4.37 was the team’s worst since 2006, and even if Pence, Buster Posey, and Brandon Belt continue to devour baseballs and fair maidens alike, it’s not clear if the substitution of Tim Hudson for Barry Zito will be enough to revive the club’s fortunes.

Derided as a limited prospect when rising through the minors, Paul Goldschmidt ransacked the NL last season, leading the league in slugging percentage and tying for the league lead in home runs. Given their lack of overall offensive depth, the D-backs will need Goldschmidt to bid for another MVP award this year.

With Todd Helton’s decline and retirement and few other marquee players on hand, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and left fielder Carlos Gonzalez give the Rockies a headline act that is more duo than multi-member band. Given the condition of the rest of the lineup, this one might be aptly called “Hall & Outs,” with nobody’s dreams coming true.

Despite coming off of their third straight season of 70-something wins, it was a quiet offseason for the Padres. They did succeed in breaking in second baseman Jedd Gyorko, who showed excellent power for the middle infield with 23 home runs, even if he did slump in the second half (.226/.271/.449 after the break), but the theme for this year is stagnation, and Gyorko remains the novelty item for the second year in a row.