Jeff Samardzija: Let him pitch ... for the Cubs

In October, 1973, the Cubs traded six-time 20-game winner Fergie Jenkins to the Texas Rangers. Last July, they traded journeyman right-hander Scott Feldman to the Baltimore Orioles. Trading their current No. 1 starter Jeff Samardzija probably falls somewhere between the two. Judging from the level of discussion about such a deal, the perceived possibilities inherent in such a trade seem to hew closer to that of the Jenkins deal, but realistically are closer to the rewards realized in the Feldman deal. Samardzija, after all, is hardly a Cy Young winner (or, to this point, candidate), and yet, the potential of riding him out of town at the first opportunity seems to be the hottest topic of conversation surrounding the team again this spring.

Part of Samardzija's mystique dates back to his draft days; he endeared himself to the Cubs when he opted out of the NFL draft for baseball instead. Even though Travis Wood has been more valuable than Samardzija the past two seasons (as measured by Wins Above Replacement), Samardzija is still the de facto ace, particularly since the version of Edwin Jackson the Cubs acquired seems to be the dysfunctional one that many warned against signing. The real question of Samardzija's value, however, isn't how he plugs into the rotation of a team that's lost 197 games during his two years in it, but how other teams perceive his talent.

Jeff Samardzija (Christian Petersen)

By the numbers, on a better team than the Cubs Samardzija would be more of a No. 3 starter than the nominal ace he is now. If you focus solely on his strikeouts per nine innings pitched, which ranked sixth in the majors over the past two seasons among starters, you might consider him a little bit better than that given the power of that indicator, but when compared with his peers over the past two seasons, he ranks 57th in WAR (behind pitchers like Dillon Gee and Bud Norris), and 50th in ERA+. Because of those strikeouts, the potential exists that he might at some point become more than what he is -- though at 29 the hour is later than you think -- but "potential" isn't the same as "actual," and expecting an acquiring team to return top prospects for a guy who might be better than he's been doesn't seem likely. Sure, come July, teams in playoff contention have done crazier things, and the possibility exists that Samardzija might have a Clay Buchholz first half and hit the trade deadline with something like a 12-1 record and a 2.00 ERA, but remember, we're talking about assessing him on the basis of what he is, not what he might be if you squint hard and hope.

Given that, trading Samardzija is almost certainly not going to be the move that fast-forwards the Cubs back into contention. In fact, it could drag them backwards. The huge list of position players on the way -- Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Albert Almora, Jorge Soler, and more -- will certainly help, but with the list of top-level pitching prospects currently limited (the best among them C.J. Edwards, Pierce Johnson, Arodys Vizcaino, the last always tentatively healthy), rebuilding the pitching staff is going to take more than any one trade can provide. Essentially, as in the Feldman and Matt Garza trades, in dealing Samardzija the Cubs would trade a pitcher for more pitching, which seems like a lot of running in place. Sure, you're getting younger and cheaper, but you're also trading known quantities for speculative items.

If Samardzija won't yield top prospects then the question of why trading him is such a hot topic becomes much harder to answer considering his services are relatively inexpensive and low-risk for the Cubs. Samardzija is in his final two seasons of arbitration, and he'll effectively cost the Cubs roughly $14 million total over the next two seasons before entering free agency in 2016. That figure is hardly a financial burden for a team that has trimmed their 2014 payroll below $100 million, and they'll have another $15 million in flexibility next season when they can finally stop paying Alfonso Soriano to play for someone else. Plus, if all goes as planned for the Cubs' top talent, they could be in a position where they can avoid the free agent market at most positions, which has its own cost savings.

One sympathizes with Cubs fans. They want whatever will end this wilderness period to happen already. The problem is that no one deal is going to do that -- not even Babe Ruth put the Yankees into the World Series his first year with the team, as other changes had to happen as well. With their plethora of position-player prospects, what the Cubs need is pitching, and in volume. You can get that via the draft, or perhaps by trading top position players, but even then the likelihood of realizing a pitcher better than Samardzija, whatever his true talent level, is small, let alone pitchers plural.