The Mariners have a reputation for failure, and it’s well deserved. Not only has the organization been a mess for most of the last decade and change, but even some of their fans have put themselves in the spotlight with hype where it didn’t belong: if you know what “#6org” means, then you know what I’m speaking of, and quite possibly root against Seattle because of it. The Mariners’ failure, though, pales in comparison in some ways to that of the Royals, as Kansas City hasn’t made it to the playoffs since winning the World Series in 1985 and have had winning records in just eight of the 28 seasons since. Their current general manager and manager have both been the focus of many a joke over the years, and oftentimes -- looking at you The Process -- with good reason.
The Royals and Mariners always fail, but maybe not this time
These two teams continually disappoint their fans, but one -- or both -- could make it to the playoffs this season.
As of Friday morning, the Mariners are one game out of a wild card spot with 10 games left on the schedule, while the Royals are half-a-game up on the Athletics for the first wild card. One of these teams, each so prone to losing and disappointment in the past, is almost a lock to make the postseason. The possibility exists that both of these teams somehow make it to meaningful October games, ending what has been a combined 40 seasons of playoff-less misery for these two fan bases.
That, or the A’s get it together just in time, and one of these teams still goes home with that feeling of resigned misery they’ve become accustomed to.
Playoff probabilities are only that -- they are no guarantee of anything -- but they look positive for the Royals. Kansas City has a 74 percent chance according to Baseball Prospectus’ odds, and if they get through this weekend series with the division rival Tigers relatively unscathed, that figure will only increase. The Mariners are in a tougher position, at 34 percent, but all it will take is one more A’s loss coupled with a Mariners’ win to set the two even mathematically over the final stretch of 2014. The A’s might be the best reminder that odds are no guarantee. They’re the best of these three teams on paper, and have the 88 percent odds to prove it, but given their play the last two months might make that mean nothing in a hurry: Oakland has dropped from six games up in the AL West to 11.5 back by going 17-28 -- .378 ball -- since August 1. Losing more games than they win -- or simply losing enough -- over their last 10 would not surprise anyone at this stage.
Must Reads from the Royals and M's
The A’s face the Angels, who lead the majors in wins, in one of their three final series. They also get the Phillies and Rangers bookending that, and while that might sound pleasant for Oakland, they did just get swept by Texas earlier this week. The Royals are still somewhat in control of their AL Central destiny since they face the Tigers this weekend, but after that, things get easier: the Indians could be a threat, as they’re still sort of hanging on at the back of the wild card race, but the season ends with four games against the White Sox, who are guaranteed to post a losing record, and might even drop 90. The Mariners might need to make their move in the next seven games, as they take on the Astros (67-86) for three then the Blue Jays (77-75, 21-29 since August 1) for four before hosting the Angels to end the year.
Of course, in a short series, anything can happen: the Astros could play spoiler, the White Sox could suddenly rise to the challenge of avoiding 90 losses, the Angels could rest their stars down the stretch to prepare for their next meaningful series. That’s what’s going to make these last 10 games so exhilarating for these three fan bases, though, and heartbreaking for one of them.
Normally, you could just assume that the Royals or Mariners would blow it as per usual, but it’s almost impossible for both of them to do so unless the Indians -- who have their own history of awfulness and haven’t won a World Series since 1948 -- destroy Kansas City after the Royals are beaten down by Detroit. One of them is a great bet to make it to October, and if the A’s keep it up, both of these perpetually disappointing squads could end their fanbases’ misery. There is too little season left to predict exactly how things are going to be, but that’s okay. We’ve been presented with a legitimate playoff race down the stretch, one that will end with as much sadness for one team as it will create joy for two others, and that’s about all you can ask for out of late-September.
