Goldman’s baseball quotables #11: Will Javier Baez ever make enough contact?

The Cubs almost certainly waited too long to call up Javier Baez for him to strike out 100 times this season. He’s whiffed 85 times in 206 plate appearances/191 at-bats with five games to go. Assuming he plays every inning of every game and the Cubs avoid some insanely long extra-inning contests, he probably has 25 plate appearances left at most, and even given one of the highest small-sample strikeout rates of all time, Baez probably won’t miss three of five times up in each of those five games.

Given a floor of 450 plate appearances, the highest strikeout rate in history was recorded by Adam Dunn, who struck out 177 times in 415 at-bats in 2011, or once every 2.34 at-bats. If you limit the class to between 150 and 250 plate appearances, Baez wouldn’t quite top the list -- Kelly Shoppach failed to connect with strike three once every 2.22 at-bats in 2010 (71 strikeouts in 158 at-bats). Baez is right behind him at 2.25. Put both lists together (courtesy of Baseball-Reference) and you get an incomplete story, because three member of the top 20 are still completing their seasons:

In addition to the 2014 players, the list is dominated by recent players. As you know, the story of the last few years, and of baseball in general, is of ever-increasing strikeouts. Long ago, batters decided to give up control for power, and except for the occasional Ichiro or Altuve, most batters conform to that model. Still, for a long time, striking out even 100 times in a season was considered a mark of profligate wastage of plate appearances. In the 1940s, Cubs outfielder Bill Nicholson averaged about 76 strikeouts per 154-game season and got hung with the nickname “swish.” Today, 76 strikeouts would make you the new Joe Sewell.

Casey Stengel said the above about Vince DiMaggio, Joe’s older brother, who played for him in Boston in 1938. Vince wasn’t the player his two younger brothers were (Dom, the third, being a standout for the Red Sox), but he was still very good. The problem was, no one could tell at the time, and the assumption was he was in the majors due to a Joltin’ Joe coattails effect. Unlike Joe, who was kind of like Mike Trout if Trout never struck out, and Dom, who was more of a Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury type, Vince was Mark Reynolds if Reynolds could play center field like, well, like Joe DiMaggio. He was a low-average hitter with some power. Add in the defense and he was quite valuable at times, if not a star (he did make two All-Star teams during World War II).

The year Casey had him, Vince set the single-season strikeout record with 134, and held it for 17 years. Even then, it took until the 1960s (Dave Nicholson) and 1970s (Bobby Bonds) for hitters to put Vince’s record in the rearview mirror. Vince led the NL five more times, and even if he was hitting .289/.365/.519 (142 OPS+) or .267/.354/.456 with 21 home runs and 100 RBI (127 OPS+) all anyone could really see was the strikeouts. Still, if what Casey said was true, at least he enjoyed himself.

What’s true of a center fielder is also true of a middle infielder like Baez. We now understand that for a hitter a strikeout is just another out, and even confers some benefits, like not hitting into double plays and, of course, power. The problem, as the table of strikeouts per at-bats suggests, is that there’s an upper limit -- it’s very hard for a hitter to strikeout that much and maintain anything like a batting average that teams feel like they can live with. Even assuming a goodly number of walks, a hitter has to have inordinate luck (or skill, or both) on every ball he puts in play to have a solid on-base percentage.

Baez is currently hitting .168/.229/.340 in 206 plate appearances. His nine home runs in that time suggests what he can do when he makes contact, but a 55 OPS+ is what it is. As we head into next season, one of the most compelling stories of the Cubs’ rebuilding will be whether Baez can get a better grip on the strike zone. He’s still very young. The results make it self-evident that he was rushed despite putting up impressive power numbers (.278/.336/.545) in the minor leagues.

Just one player, Brett Wallace of last year’s Astros, has climbed 100-strikeout mountain in a single season without benefit of more than 300 plate appearances. It took Wallace 285 PAs/262 at-bats to compile 104 strikeouts. Given that many, at his current rate Baez would whiff 116 times. Unless he just goes hog wild these last few games, he just won’t get there. It doesn’t matter, of course; whether he gets to the big round number or not, his future challenges are clear. It only makes a difference to we combination collectors of statistical oddities/sadists.

That said, when you look at that strikeout rate in context, the implications are awfully scary in terms of the Cubs coming back quickly. It’s a warning that a team can pile up prospects, but not as good as they might look at times, they might not all pay off the way we hope and expect. The Cubs have enough middle infielders around that they can continue to rebuild if Baez fails, but it will be a setback nonetheless. Yes, it’s too early to write him off, but it wouldn’t be totally paranoid either, not when he’s already one of the greatest strikeout artists of all time, small sample be damned -- you can’t whistle your way out of that many Ks.

I have had the bad taste to take today’s quotable from my own book on Casey Stengel. If this be self-promotion, let us make the most of it.