Breaking down the American League wild card race

The Indians aren’t dead.

That sentence makes me uncomfortable and serves as a one-sentence argument for changing their name back to the Naps, but in baseball terms, the Indians aren’t dead.

The Mariners aren’t dead. I wrote that they were yesterday because I was high on math. Then I watched the A’s play the Rangers. The A’s are a bike with square wheels trying to get away from the cops, and it’s brutal to watch. So the Mariners still have a chance.

The A’s aren’t dead. They’re shivering and under a blanket. They aren’t eating anything, even this cup of broth, and they need to eat, dammit, eat, just take the broth. But they aren’t dead. Statistically, they’re the favorites for the second wild card. Prohibitive favorites.

It’s close enough, though, that it’s worth examining the path each team needs to take to the playoffs.

Help needed
The Indians need to sweep the Rays at home and have the A’s lose all three games, with the Mariners losing at least two games.

Pitching matchups
Fri. Corey Kluber vs. Chris Archer
Sat. Carlos Carrasco vs. Alex Colome
Sun. Danny Salazar vs. Alex Cobb

Reminder that the Rays, after their 10-game losing streak, have gone 53-45, good for a .541 winning percentage. That would be enough to hold a wild card slot if they played like that over a full season, so don’t think of them as the under-500 mess they might appear to be after a quick glance at the standings.

Potential for chaos
Excellent. Simply excellent. Note that the A’s need to get swept by the Rangers in this scenario, but the Rangers have actually swept the A’s twice already this season, including in their last series. The Mariners would need to lose at least one against the Angels, who will probably be starting Kiff Manders or Dunstoon Wilimix to make sure their postseason rotation is properly aligned.

But if the A’s are swept and the Mariners win just one, an Indians sweep could create a three-way tie. The Mariners would play on the road against the winner of an Indians/A’s game. There would be a playoff game to see who makes the playoff game to see who makes the playoff game to see who makes the playoffs.

This is something to root for.

The AL Wild Card Game is tentatively scheduled for Tuesday, but I assume it would be pushed back to Wednesday in this beautiful scenario. The Indians would have the chance to play three games in three days in three different cities.

Help needed
The Mariners need to win at least two games against the Angels at Safeco. Winning two, with the A’s getting swept, forces a play-in game against the A’s in Seattle. Sweeping three with the A’s getting swept gives them the wild card outright. Sweeping three with the Royals getting swept by the White Sox gives the Mariners the first wild card ... but only if the A’s get swept, too. We’ll get into that in the chaos section.

Pitching matchups
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Jered Weaver
James Paxton vs. Cory Rasmus
Felix Hernandez vs. C.J. Wilson

I’m not sure what the Angels’ plans are for their postseason rotation, but there’s a chance they filed the Salt Lake team on Saturday and/or Sunday. That’s worth keeping in mind

Potential for chaos
Excellent. In this scenario, the Royals can mess themselves and create havoc. With the Royals swept, the A’s dropping two of three, and the Mariners winning out, there’s a three-team tie for two wild card spots. The Mariners would get to choose if they want to host a team, with the winner traveling to the home of the third team. Or the Mariners could choose to host the winner of the first game. Also, the Mariners can lose just enough to let the Indians into a one-game playoff to make the Wild Card Game, too.

This is also something to root for.

Help needed
They need to win two games on the road against one of the worst teams in baseball. Or, they need to win one and have the Angels win one. Or, they need to completely fail, so long as the Mariners do too. This is why they’re the easy favorites ... until you remember that they were lapping the competition just a month ago. Since the start of September, the A’s have played .348 ball -- the equivalent of a 106-loss team. And that’s ignoring that they ended August on a four-game losing streak.

They’ve been outscored by one run in September, you know. One run. Yet they’re playing like the ‘62 Mets. Seems like poor timing, but what do I know?

Pitching matchups
Scott Kazmir vs. Nick Tepesch
Jeff Samardzija vs. Derek Holland
Sonny Gray vs. Nick Martinez

I’d give edges to the A’s in all three ... except I’m finished analyzing this team. You realize they’re going to lose all three of these games, still stumble into the playoffs, and win the pennant, right? If that’s not how baseball trolls us, I’m not sure that I know baseball.

Potential for chaos
Statistically, low. Considering how the A’s have played this season ... likely. The Indians and Mariners scenarios up there apply if the A’s don’t win a game, and even if they win one, the Mariners could still sweep at home against the Angels to force a playoff for the second spot.

Help needed
They need to win a danged game on the road against the White Sox. Or they need Seattle to lose just once.

Pitching matchups
Jeremy Guthrie vs. Hector Noesi
Danny Duffy vs. John Danks
Yordano Ventura vs. Chris Bassitt

The last two are subject to change if they win on Friday night, of course.

Potential for chaos
Low. The Royals are the Royals are the Royals, it seems, and at the very least it would be like them to need to start Ventura on Sunday and mess up their neat postseason rotation. But they’re playing a lousy team, and the Mariners are playing a good team, so it would seem like the odds are overwhelmingly in their favor.

That’s the funny part about this four-team race. The teams in the lead are playing bad teams; the teams that need help are playing strong teams (or in the case of the Rays, a team with strong pitching.) Yet no one feels comfortable. No one should feel comfortable. Chaos is coming, everyone. If not this year, then one of these years. It will be a hot, bloody mess, and it will be the best three days of baseball we’ve seen in a while.

Thank you, Bud Selig? Thank you?