James Shields free agent power rankings

James Shields was supposed to wait for Jon Lester to sign. That was the idea, at least. Lester signs, and all the dominoes fall after that, we all thought. Instead, it’s the middle of January, and we’re still sifting through vague rumors. We don’t know if anyone’s hot, if anyone’s heavy ... it’s a mess.

We tried to put him on the Dodgers last month, but they weaseled out and took a chance on Brett Anderson instead. So let’s look at the teams associated with Shields since the World Series on MLB Trade Rumors and rank them in reverse order of best fit. If his deal will be somewhere between four years, $90 million and five years, $110 million, which team would be the best fit?

Here are all of the teams linked to Shields since Nov. 1, in chronological order:

More than a third of the teams in baseball might be interested in a starting pitcher with close to a decade-long string of productive 200-inning seasons. Odd. Whittling the list down, from least likely to most likely ...

Concoct a scenario in which Shields chooses the Rockies over any other team. Seven years, $140 million? Maybe, but even then, he’s signing the deal knowing that he’s going to hate his job for most of the next decade. Oh, not because the Rockies are awful people, but because there’s no way Shields and Coors Field are a good fit. Add in the rebuilding/retooling -- re-whatever -- Rockies and the fact that several teams would also love to give him scores and scores of millions, and it’s impossible to see this one. I know that mystery teams are going to be mystery teams, but the Rockies are the Peace and Freedom candidate in a presidential election.

Here, this is more their speed:

names like Ryan Vogelsong, Kyle Kendrick, and Kevin Correia represent the range of pitcher being considered.

Good luck, fellas!

Maybe I’m a dope, and maybe I’m being roped, but I can’t see even the Dodgers paying $10 million for a sixth starter, which is what Shields would make Brett Anderson. Maybe when the new ownership first took over, sure, but not now. They’re a little more established, with a little less to prove, and they’ve seen how an extra $10 million here and there can affect the different roster permutations in the offseason. Shields made sense -- too much sense -- for the Dodgers before the Anderson signing, but they’re playing risk/reward bingo at 10 percent of the price now.

I mean, come on. A $10 million sixth starter.

There’s no way.

...

Right?

The latest scuttlebutt has the Angels not talking to any starting pitchers, which makes sense, considering their rotation is mostly spoken for (and especially because they dealt their starting second baseman for Andrew Heaney, who would be the pitcher pushed out by Shields, most likely).

Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and C.J. Wilson will combine to make the payroll of the Astros or Rays this year, roughly. Add in Shields, and that’s four players making about as much as the entire Braves roster. Even the Angels have their limits, which is exactly why the Howie Kendrick/Heaney trade went down in the first place.

This isn’t a roster that’s a James Shields away from overtaking the Dodgers, Giants or Padres in the NL West. It’s a roster built to sift through a rotation filled with No. 4 starters, figuring out who should be around to help the next good Diamondbacks team. I can’t imagine why they would want detonate their big free-agent grenade now for a pitcher who isn’t an especially great fit for the park.

On the other hand, the old Diamondbacks front office was kind of weird. Maybe there are weird spores in the HVAC ducts and the new guys are infected with the weird now. Remember the offseason when the Diamondbacks signed Cody Ross to a three-year deal, even though they already had four outfielders? Weird spores. Had to be.

We’re starting to get into the maybe-sorta-hmmmm teams that make more sense for Shields. The Rangers should be contending, they should be looking for win-now help, and their rotation is mighty thin. Considering that Colby Lewis, Nick Tepesch, and Ross Detwiler are all penciled into the rotation, the Rangers have to be worried about their depth, at least a little. The odds of all three of those pitchers finishing the season in the rotation are low.

They’re at a weird crossroads, though, with a substantial amount of money tied up in contracts that make you wince (Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo, Matt Harrison, Elvis Andrus), so I’m not sure how eager they would be to take a huge, multi-year gamble on another free agent. If Shields flopped, the Rangers might have to sit out the next couple offseasons, more or less, until they waited for chunks of dead money to slough off the payroll.

Difficulty: The Marlins would likely have to pass Dan Haren off to another team or hope he retires.

Additional difficulty: The Marlins aren’t quite ready to spend, spend, spend like they were in 2012. Their payroll should be around $70 million this year, which makes sense for a team that’s struggling to find an identity and rebuild their trust with the fans. A $90 million payroll makes them almost like ... like ... like a normal team, and I’m not sure if any of us are ready for that, yet.

Even more additional difficulty: While the Marlins have been active on the trade market, there’s still no evidence that they can look a free agent in the eyes and say, “Oh, no, don’t worry about us, we’ll never break this team up” without giggling or coughing or pulling their Oreos apart. We’re probably a couple of years away from the Marlins convincing a multi-year option that they’re on the level.

All of that, and yet the Marlins would still be a great baseball fit. Three of the other teams in the division are going backward, and the Marlins have an intriguing-but-not-overwhelming roster to play with. Shields might be the difference between a wild card spot and a team hovering closer to .500, and they know it.

Boy, oh boy, could the Blue Jays use Shields. They made a huge deal to get Josh Donaldson, but their next moves were to build a defensive-minded outfield with Michael Saunders and Dalton Pompey. Wouldn’t a third dependable innings-muncher -- a fly-ball pitcher, even -- make sense with their current roster? Daniel Norris has a delightfully electric repertoire, but Shields would give the Blue Jays a much more predictable rotation this year, and some insurance for next year if Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey both leave.

Because it makes sense, though, I’m skeptical that it would actually happen. We like to pick on teams like the Pirates and Royals when they’re bad for a decade or two, but there’s not enough time spent furrowing our collective brow at a team like the Jays, forever between 77 and 87 wins. I’m not saying that Shields would automatically get them to the postseason, but it’s a deal that makes so much sense for them, it can’t happen. It’s that Blue Jays way that George Harrison was trying to tell us about.

Here we have a team that probably doesn’t need Shields. Lester/Arrieta/Hammel is a fine front three, and Travis Wood and Kyle Hendricks are mold that molten fourth and fifth starters are poured into. They’re probably going to have a transition year in which they futz around with Javier Baez, Arismendy Alcantara, and others, trying to figure out what permutation of young talent will allow them to win soon, so signing their third expensive of the offseason seems like a bit much.

On the other hand, a team with Shields, Lester, and Arrieta could sure get away with a lot of offensive hiccups. The Cubs are clearly interested in the 2015 campaign as some kind of statement season. One of the better free agents left on the market would help make that statement, possibly with a lot of expletives and whoops.

The Giants can’t say this: “Look, we’re desperate for James Shields, not going to lie. Do you realize that our fifth starter is Tim Lincecum? He’s not good anymore. We’ve run the numbers. It’s been three years. He needs to be in the bullpen. Not only that, but Matt Cain is sketchy because he’s coming off elbow surgery, Tim Hudson just had ankle surgery, and Jake Peavy isn’t exactly an iron man. We need to get this guy.” They can’t say it because a) it would hose their bargaining power and b) it would screw with the confidence of their fallback plan, Lincecum.

On the other hand, the Giants are going to have a $160 million payroll as is. Even with Hudson, Lincecum, and Marco Scutaro coming off the books next year, all of the players they want to keep will be getting raises, too. They might not be in the best spot to pay another starting pitcher $18 million a season, even if they’re selling World Series merchandise by the crate yet again.

On the other other hand, why worry about James Shields when you could get Dillon Gee?:

There are still rumors that the Padres are interested in Cole Hamels, which makes a little sense. But instead of trading Wil Myers or a gaggle of prospects, why not get a poor man’s Hamels for a rich man’s price? Their commitment to Brandon Morrow is compelling, but between him and Andrew Cashner, they would benefit from a near-guarantee of 200 innings more than almost any other team. Other than the Giants and Marlins, there isn’t a better park for Shields, too.

The Padres with Shields still wouldn’t have a better rotation than the Dodgers, but they would come closer than you might think. It’s almost a perfect fit, if not for the ...

The Red Sox rotation, give or take a spring battle or injury:

How Red Sox fans want to see that:

What they should be worried about:

Individually, it’s hard to argue against any of the names. Collectively, it’s a bunch that’s desperate for one more sure thing, one more stable starting pitcher. If the Red Sox make it into April without either Shields or Hamels, it’ll be a minor surprise. They were the frontrunners early in the offseason. They’re still the frontrunners now.