The Cubs aren’t going to win the NL Central, are they?

Hey, everyone, let’s laugh at the Cubs.

Oh, that proposition used to be a better draw a couple years ago. Now they have the farm system, the money, and, most importantly, the apparent motivation to build a winning franchise for years. Still, Cubs jokes are impossible to uncoil and remove from every strand of DNA in our bodies. You can get most of them, but there will always be a few stragglers. This means that when we read a quote like this:

We’re going to play, we’re going to win the NL Central. You guys will quote me on that

We guffaw and chortle because, c’mon, not yet. The Cubs aren’t ready, regardless of what seers and oracles have predicted. We dismiss it out of hand because we’re so smug, so sure of ourselves. Mostly, I do it because I’m lazy.

But, okay, fiiiiiiine, I’ll look into it a little bit. What sort of chance do the Cubs have in the Central this year, noting that they could still sign James Shields and Max Scherzer? We’ll look at the pitching and hitting to take an educated guess.

First point of order: We’re not touching the bullpens. Bullpens are baseball’s teenagers: You might get a National Merit Scholarship winner, you might get the kid who sets the National Merit Scholarship winner’s car on fire. It’s a fine line. You can do your best to prepare for the former! It’s not something you can fully control, though. There will be bullpens that perform as expected, and there will be bullpens that will surprise or disappoint, and the latter will outnumber the former by about a 2:1 ratio.

This is about the rotation, the strength of the current Cubs team. It’s a deliberate strength, considering the system is flush with hitters but not pitchers. This is where they’ve put their money. It’s the banana stand of the Cubs. How does it compare with the rest of the division?

We’ll use Steamer to guess, doing a simple tally of the innings and earned runs the top five starters are projected to accrue for each team.

First thing you should notice: It’s all quite close. Steamer hates Yovani Gallardo, Matt Garza, and Kyle Lohse, so adjust upward if you think the Brewers are better than the stupid computer says. If you do that, it’s really, really close. Most of the teams have a bona fide ace. They have a No. 2. They have depth. There aren’t disasters in the final two spots. All of the teams are projected to have competent, deep rotations.

So why are the Cubs so special? Well, they’re not. We’re not trying to prove they’re special, only that they can hang with the other teams in the division, at least on paper. They can. And you know how this will work. Two guys in that table will get hurt, four will get blown up, three will exceed expectations, and five pitchers who aren’t up there at all right now will log significant innings, some good and some bad.

Still, the Cubs have expectations for their pitching staff. They’re right to have them. That’s the point. So far, Rizzo’s not so crazy. Which leads us to the ...

The player with the braggadocio is also the best hitter on the team. Well played. If the Cubs do win the division, Rizzo will need to be a huge part of it. That’s one lineup spot filled with a good hitter, seven to go. There are other players who could be better than the league average at their respective positions. Starlin Castro is one. Miguel Montero is another.

What the Cubs need for a contender: Breakout seasons. That’s the plan all along. Jorge Soler going goofy and ascending into All-Star orbit would be a start. Kris Bryant forcing his way into the lineup and winning awards would be another. Javier Baez will probably hit like Dave Kingman with an eyepatch, but there’s a chance that he improves greatly, too.

As I was writing a snippet about how well Nori Aoki would fit with the Cubs, the Giants signed him. But focusing on the Cubs’ current idea to hope Chris Coghlan can repeat his 2014 is nitpicking. The lineup isn’t festooned with obvious holes, but more than that, it’s a lineup with potential.

Take the Cardinals, for contrast. They project to have a better offense, which is why they’re probably going to take at least a plurality of preseason predictions. Except, how much better can Matt Holliday get? What’s the ceiling for Yadier Molina or Jhonny Peralta at this point? The smart money goes on the Cardinals (or Pirates!), but that doesn’t mean they should start setting up their postseason rotation now. They look better because we’ve seen the good seasons from most of their players. If the Cubs get a breakout season or two, they’ll look like a whole different team, and by July, we’ll be used to it. Except they have so many young players, they might get a breakout season or four.

Favorites? No. Contenders? Sure. Put the Cubs down for contenders. And, really, what do you expect Rizzo to say? “Alright fellas, lemme tell you about something called ‘Steamer’ and how it’s making me nervous about this season ...” He’s supposed to enter the season with confidence. Good for him. Up yours, other teams.

And that projection system still has them within three games of the Cardinals and four of the Pirates, which is very fair. The Cubs spent money on a rotation. They’ve taken their time with their young position players. Next year could be the season it all comes together, but don’t be blown away if Rizzo is right.

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