5 surprising projections for the 2015 MLB season

They’re out there. Under a Facebook post. Roaming the halls of Twitter. There is someone typing the words “THE GAME ISN’T PLAYED ON PAPER” unironically in response to something about Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projections. These poor souls think they have an original point. They think they’re going to change the way you think about baseball. They click “send” and sit back, thinking they’ve changed this wacky baseball world of ours.

In reality, they’re being absurd. First, the projections haven’t been created on paper since the days of J. Henry Waugh, so you have to point out that the game isn’t played on computers. Which is a good thing, what with them being much smaller than the typical baseball field. Second, please stop. Projections are fun. They’re discussion fodder. They’re generally accurate, occasionally ridiculous, but always fun. And it is here that we get into the theme of the article.

How I learned five things from the PECOTA projected standings that I was afraid to ask and stop loving the bomb:

(Or, five interesting nuggets from the PECOTA projected standings.)

PECOTA projects the Mets to finish a game behind the second wild card. They didn’t project that they would be leading the wild card race by six games with a week to go, but it’s implied. There are some folks who are surprised by this, considering just how used we are to giggling at the Mets. It’s hard to pick just one video to represent the latest Mets era, but I’m choosing this one because it never stops being amazing:

If the runners aren’t going, maybe the Mets win that game. And maybe they move up a spot and pick Barret Loux in the next draft instead of Matt Harvey. Think about it. That might be the triple play that wins the pennant for the 2015 Mets.

Anyway, back to the point: The Mets just might have enough pitching to contend. That’s why Mets fans are absolutely right to be ripped at the Wilpons for giving a team in New York (metro pop. 20,000,000) a lower payroll than a team in Milwaukee (metro pop. 2,000,000, including Watertown and Beaver Dam). With a couple of additions, the Mets could bolster the pitching with an offense that would project as average or even better. Instead, they pounced on Michael Cuddyer almost to make a point that they weren’t being cheap, and then they sat the rest of the offseason out.

The odd thing is that PECOTA isn’t respecting the Mets for their pitching. They’re projecting the Mets to allow the seventh-fewest runs in the National League -- good, but not exactly dominant enough to make up for other shortcomings. It’s an acceptable offense that pushes them over the .500 mark and into the conversation for the wild card (with about seven or eight other teams). If the Mets do contend, there are always midseason acquisitions to make everyone forget about the lackluster offseason.

It’s hard not to love the offseason of the White Sox. They picked up Adam LaRoche on a completely reasonable contract, signed Melky Cabrera to a fine deal, traded for Jeff Samardzija, and blew a lot of money on an excellent closer. It was a frenetic offseason from a team that was in danger of lulling its fans to sleep.

The only problem: PECOTA dislikes almost all of those moves. LaRoche is projected to slip down the birthday slope, Cabrera is supposed to be a solid regular and nothing more, Samardzija is projected to be barely above replacement level, and even the best relievers aren’t going to make up a lot of the difference.

Then you add up the moves they didn’t make. The projected starter at second base is Carlos Sanchez, who is projected to be exactly at replacement level. The good news is Emilio Bonifacio is also there, just in case, and he projects to be a tenth of a win better. If Hector Noesi sticks as the fifth starter, he might be one of the worst rotation regulars in the game, and John Danks is going to be mediocre in the best-case scenarios.

That’s the best part about projections, though. You can cherry pick the ones you don’t trust and remove them from your own mental calculus. Samardzija having the worst full season of his career? I’ll take the over. If Noesi really is that bad, he’ll be replaced in short order, possibly by golden-armed prospect, Carlos Rodon. Slap the books out of PECOTA’s hands and push it into its locker, dammit. Get mad, White Sox fans!

Still, the regression forecasts for players like Conor Gillaspie and Adam Eaton are a little troubling. The White Sox spent a lot of money to contend. They can’t afford to have a lot of players moving backward.

Back before the 2011 season, everyone knew one thing about the upcoming season: The Phillies were going to be dominant. They had the best team in baseball, give or take, the previous season, and then they added Cliff Lee. It was an embarrassment of pitches, and the offensive core was solidly pre-decline. They were a team without a noticeable flaw. Howard, Utley, Rollins, Ruiz, Victorino, combined with that pitching staff? It took a late-season skid for them to win only 102 games.

They were projected to win 95 games. This is because projection systems are, almost by definition, conservative. You look at 2011 Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay and see two 20-game winners with ERAs close to 2.00. PECOTA sees that, too, but it’s also seeing all of the dark, unlit roads pitchers can stumble down. Computers believe that enthusiasm exists only to be tempered.

The Dodgers are projected to win 97 games.

Remember, the Dodgers lost Hanley Ramirez who, even though he was more Adam Dunn than Ozzie Smith at short, was a very valuable player. But PECOTA absolutely loves all of the offseason acquisitions from the new Dodgers staff. Yasmani Grandal gives them an extra two wins, as does Howie Kendrick. Jimmy Rollins’ defense helps make up for the Ramirez loss, and Joc Pederson -- acquisition by opportunity -- is an instant upgrade in center. Even though the system is slightly down on the expensive back end of the rotation, it still likes the entire roster.

Or, to put it another way, fourth outfielder Scott Van Slyke is projected to have about as much value as the entire Braves outfield.

Given that the roster started with Clayton Kershaw, Yasiel Puig, and Zack Greinke, this probably isn’t that much of a surprise. But according to PECOTA, the Dodgers had the best offseason in baseball, and it wasn’t even close. (I can’t disagree, even if I would like to.)

From one game away from a championship to 90 losses. And you know that pennant gave Dayton Moore about 12 years of leeway, too. If this is accurate, the hearts that were only just mended will be torn apart again.

The good news: The defense projects to be the best in baseball. Six of the nine regulars are projected to be two wins over replacement or better. Omar Infante bounces back in a big way. Alex Gordon is still great.

The bad news:

Total: -0.3 WARP from the entire rotation. In theory, the Royals would have been better off scouring the minor league free agents this offseason and saving money.

Even though I’m not wild about the Volquez deal -- pun intended and forced upon you -- I’ll still take the over for every single pitcher up there. In a head-to-head projection-off the computers will beat me more often than not, but that’s more pessimism than even my cynical brain can process.

The Royals will be fast, though! Vroom vroom.

The Red Sox were supposed to have the offseason of doom, sprinkling youth around impressive free agent signings, and separating themselves from the rest of the AL East. The Rays were going in the other direction, trading one of their best players and starting their first season without David Price since 2009. PECOTA has them as tied for first.

Tied for first! It also has the Yankees as not completely horrible and the Orioles being a clear last-place finisher, but I’ll focus on the Rays. Reasons for the first-place projection:

People yelled at me for putting the Rays so far down on the X axis in this feature. Well, now I’m yelling at them, and a big ol’ bully of artificial intelligence is standing behind me, arms crossed, on my side. Not so tough now, are you Internet?

It’s easy to look at the talent that’s going out rather than the youth that still remains. I’m not sure if I’ll pick the Rays higher than fourth this year, but if they were to win the division, it wouldn’t exactly be worth an 80-point headline on the cover of Time. It wouldn’t even be worth a medium-warm take. It would be a series of not-that-likely-but-still-not-absurd occurrences that add up into something between very surprising and mildly surprising.

Baseball, then. The Rays winning the AL East would be baseball. It could happen. Don’t forget that the computers got there first, though.