John Smoltz spent the bulk of his prime years as a No. 3 starter. Let that sink in.
Hall of Fame 2015 profile: John Smoltz
Smoltz is the only pitcher in baseball history to exceed 200 wins and 100 saves in his career. Will that be enough to get him into Cooperstown on his first try?
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The distinction has nothing to do with Smoltz's performance, of course. The right-handed Detroit native pitched for 21 years -- 20 for the Atlanta Braves -- and compiled a 3.33 ERA, 215 wins and more than 3,000 strikeouts. But from 1993 through 1999, Smoltz worked his craft in a starting rotation that included baseball legends Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine.
Smoltz could join his two former teammates in the Baseball Hall of Fame, which will announce its 2015 class on Jan. 6. How worthy would Smoltz be of a call to the Hall? We examine.
Is he a Hall of Famer?
Yes, though maybe not on the first ballot (more on that below). Smoltz is the only pitcher in baseball history with at least 200 wins and 100 saves. Regardless of how those statistics are viewed within the game today, they’re not likely to be ignored by the majority of the people with a Hall of Fame vote. But to say Smoltz’s success was the result of simply opportunities, good fortune and one of the two or three best teams in the last quarter century would be dismissive of his career.
Smoltz struck out eight batters per nine innings and really settled in as a strong control pitcher after some wildness early in his career. And the way he reinvented himself as a reliever after missing the entire 2000 season with an injury was as impressive as anything else he accomplished. Smoltz allowed fewer than eight hits per nine innings and fanned 300 batters in 285⅓ frames during that span.
Career Highlights
21 years (1988-2009)
Teams: Braves, Red Sox, Cardinals
8-time All-Star
1996 Cy Young Award winner
1992 NLCS MVP
1995 World Series champion
3.33 ERA, 125 ERA+
213 wins, 154 saves
3,084 strikeouts
66.5 career WAR
61.8 JAWS (58th among SP)
Smoltz, in addition to his well-documented pitching prowess, was far from an automatic out at the plate. Though he finished his career with a paltry 16 OPS+, only one pitcher -- Smoltz's longtime teammate, Glavine -- has drawn more walks since the advent of the designated hitter. Smoltz's best year at the plate was 1999, when he hit a respectable .274/.338/.387, production the current Braves would kill to have from regular position players like B.J. Upton and Andrelton Simmons.
Why the voters might disagree
Smoltz doesn’t quite meet the average production from pitchers currently in Cooperstown. His total WAR, seven-year peak WAR and JAWS score are all below -- and, in the case of the peak, rather significantly -- the average of the 59 pitchers enshrined in the Hall. Part of that is because Smoltz missed chunks of four separate seasons during his prime.
Still, penalizing Smoltz for not being able to accumulate as high of a WAR figure as other starting pitchers in Cooperstown probably isn’t fair. Rather, comparing him to someone like Dennis Eckersley, who was a 46-win pitcher in 12 seasons as a starter before transitioning to the bullpen, might be more apt.
Eckersley was elected in his first year of eligibility. Smoltz is deserving of the same fate, but there’s a good chance that won’t happen due to the crowded nature of the ballot. Alan Trammell, Larry Walker and Fred McGriff and other deserving players are in varying degrees of danger of falling off the ballot entirely, so strategic voting could delay Smoltz’s likely inevitable induction.
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