The Cardinals have the trickiest offseason in baseball after the Lance Lynn injury

Start with what the Cardinals still have. Adam Wainwright is a fine ace, one of baseball’s best pitchers when healthy. Carlos Martinez is one of the better young arms in the league, and his shoulder issues shouldn’t delay his start in 2016. Michael Wacha had a fine return to form last year, but Jaime Garcia’s was even better. Marco Gonzales is the type of high-profile prospect that should be given a chance to win the fifth spot in a rotation.

As is, it’s far from a hopeless collection of talent. You don’t have to mine for the best-case scenarios to be optimistic about the Cardinals’ rotation. There’s still a chance to be bullish and reasonable at the same time, which you probably can’t say about half the rotations in the league. So, while the news that Lance Lynn will miss 2016 following Tommy John surgery is discouraging and brutal, it’s easy to think the Cardinals will be fine. They cut pieces off these players in the spring, just so they can grow new ones in a pot, apparently. More teams should do that.

There’s a sense that the Cardinals will persevere because they’re the Cardinals, a tautology that’s been right more often than wrong. They have an injury like this every year, but they’re always fine. Let’s see how far back we can go:

2015 -- Adam Wainwright

2014 -- Michael Wacha, Jaime Garcia

2013 -- Jaime Garcia

2012 -- Chris Carpenter

2011 -- Adam Wainwright

Every year, man. Every year the Cardinals get together, take an uncomfortable group shot and send out a holiday card announcing they’ve lost a ridiculously important part of their pitching plans. They usually cobble together a solution, often from their minor league reserves. Their best pitching prospect, Alex Reyes, can’t help them this time, though, because he likes to get high. It would have been much more convenient for the Cardinals if he drank a fifth of bourbon every day. Maybe he can work on that in the offseason, take one for the team.

The good news? Lynn’s injury was revealed early in the offseason, allowing the Cardinals to explore help through free agency.

The bad news? Lynn’s injury was revealed early enough in the offseason that the Cardinals might be forced to spend on pitchers in free agency. This was not the plan.

The Cardinals had a relatively simple offseason plan, most likely: Pursue Jason Heyward, and when that didn’t work, pursue him harder. Maybe a right-handed first base complement to Brandon Moss and Matt Adams? A bullpen arm, possibly. Then pursue Heyward even harder. Now they have a starting pitcher to get, just like every other team. Great, just great.

Bob Nightengale up there teased a hashtag hinting that the Cardinals could be in the market for David Price. Makes sense, except here’s where the Cardinals have ranked in payroll in the last few years:

In other words, they’re a team that can point at one of their free agents and say, “We want that guy. Let’s make it happen,” but not one that can say, “You know, if we spend twice as much, we can buy twice as many free agents.” If they want a premium free agent, they’ll have to choose instead of accumulate, just as they always have.

It’s a trickier decision than usual, too, because of several players the Cards are relying on. Yadier Molina will be 34 next year, which is much older in catcher years. Matt Holliday will be 36, and the Cardinals will have to figure out if he’ll be worth $17 million when he’s 37. Jhonny Peralta’s mid-30s success has been a revelation for them, but mid-30s success is always such a fickle thing. Wainwright is 34 and coming off a serious injury. The young players are a year closer to arbitration. When Lynn comes back, he’ll be a year away from free agency.

This is a Cardinals team with decisions over the next two years, serious decisions. More so than the typical major league team, even. They might have to face life without their team leader, without chunks of their rotation, without their No. 3 hitter and they’ll have to do it in a young, talented, messy NL Central.

Which is all to say, they probably shouldn’t screw up their free agency moves this year.

The practical question is if a 15-homer, .350 OBP, glove whiz of a corner outfielder is really the one big-money splash this team will need as they transition into a post-Molina, post-Holliday world.

The jokey answer is that the Cardinals will promote Cab Trandle and he’ll hit 25 homers, but not before Jose Panilla wins 17 games for them, jumping straight from Single-A. The Cardinals always have a solution. If they don’t anyone named Trandle and Panilla in the organization, by gum, they’ll get some. It doesn’t matter if Heyward ends up being something of a disappointment, or if the Cardinals sink everything into one pitcher. They’ll figure it out.

The practical answer is I’m not sure if Heyward is the right kind of fit for an organization that can’t hand out these kinds of contracts every year. WAR superstars reliant on defense and baserunning make me more nervous than WAR superstars reliant on power and on-base percentage, especially when you’re talking eight- or nine-year deals. It might make more sense for the Cardinals to invest in a premium pitcher with a shorter contract.

On the other hand, Heyward is really, really outstanding. And he could get even better. Not to mention, there are one- and two-year stopgaps out there on the market, some of whom seem very Cardinals. Can you imagine Mark Buehrle coming back for a final season and winning 19 games for the Cardinals? Of course you can. What about Bartolo Colon? Sure thing.

I don’t have an answer. I’m not here to tell you what the Cardinals should do. Just that they have a very tricky offseason minefield to tiptoe around. And while it’s fair to assume they’ll figure it out because they always do, that’s how I used to feel about the Braves, too. This isn’t a team that can get the free agent ace and the cornerstone outfielder. They’ll have to pick one, and they’ll also have to be mindful of their aging franchise players.

They can do it. You know they can. But for the first time in years, I’m not sure if I envy the Cardinals.