The Toronto Blue Jays enter spring brimming with optimism yet again. In a winter that saw the Padres re-make their whole roster and the division-rival Red Sox bulk up on offense, the Blue Jays made two of the offseason's biggest moves to bolster their 2015 chances.
Toronto’s blueprint to contend may have a fatal flaw
Built to win now, the Blue Jays will regret their inability to add more starting pitching come season’s end.
Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
First, GM Alex Anthopoulos handed out the second-largest contract in franchise history—five years, $82 million—to land catcher Russell Martin in mid-November, outbidding the Cubs and other suitors in the process. While Martin's signing indicated Toronto was willing to spend, the arrival of third baseman Josh Donaldson via trade two weeks later might prove even more influential. After all, Donaldson has been one of baseball's best players the past two seasons and a vital part of Oakland's success.
But, instead of fully pushing their chips onto the table, the Blue Jays did little else but sit back the rest of the offseason. Anthopoulos did take a flyer on first baseman Justin Smoak and sent lefty J.A. Happ to Seattle in return for outfielder Michael Saunders. Yet the Jays never addressed the one area of the club that has handicapped them the past few seasons -- their starting rotation.
Indeed, Toronto has done little to upgrade a staff that finished with the fifth-highest ERA (3.96) and sixth-highest FIP (3.93) in the American League last season. The Blue Jays will again depend on R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle to carry a large portion of the load, though neither has proven able to consistently succeed in the AL East.
Drew Hutchison showed some positive flashes after finally returning from injury in 2014, but he also took his fair share of lumps and has a recent Tommy John surgery on his resume. Admittedly, youngster Marcus Stroman looks like a future star, and the team's staff will benefit from having the 23-year-old around for an entire season. However, hoping Stroman can pitch like a top-of-the-rotation arm in his first full campaign is unrealistic.
Prospects Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris both point to a bright future, but the Jays' offense and financial commitments point to a team that is built to win now. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion (and their team-friendly salaries) could only be around for two more seasons, and the likes of Martin and Jose Reyes are both entering the downslopes of their careers. Martin's experience, framing ability and chops behind the plate will surely help the pitching staff (especially the youngsters). Still, simply adding depth to the rotation would have been a big boost to Toronto's chances.
As it is, the Blue Jays are on thin ice if any injuries strike their current crop of starters. If everyone in the rotation stays healthy, Stroman replicates his 2014 performance over a full season and either Sanchez or Norris can contribute, Toronto can contend for a division title. Yet that leaves the Jays with little margin for error, something they should have learned in 2013, when they entered the season as heavy favorites in the AL East and saw injuries and underperformance torpedo their playoff hopes.
Anthopoulos didn't need to sign Max Scherzer or Jon Lester, but he might regret not adding more depth to the club's rotation. He could have taken a cheap flyer on bounce-back candidates like Justin Masterson or A.J. Burnett, or scoured the trade market for options. He didn't, and the Blue Jays now need things to break their way on the pitching front.
Toronto can always make an upgrade during the season, of course, and perhaps their biggest rival in the AL East, the Red Sox, have plenty of question marks in their rotation as well. Still, given how much tinkering and maneuvering Anthopoulos has done in building the team’s roster the past few years, it’s puzzling how the Jays keep failing to make those extra moves to bolster their playoff hopes. At this point, even just an extra win or two could prove the difference between the organization’s first playoff berth in two decades or another disappointing season.
The Blue Jays have plenty of reasons for hope in 2015. They’ll welcome two strong newcomers to the fold and might just have the best offense in baseball. Yet they have a clear weakness too, something that could prove costly in one of the most competitive divisions in baseball.
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