Deciding where the Phillies should trade Jonathan Papelbon

Does your team want a Hall of Fame closer, not too far removed from his peak? He’s out there. His team is willing to trade him. He’s even under contract for next year if he finishes 48 games in 2015. According to Baseball-Reference, he was worth almost three wins last year -- a gaudy mark for a reliever, yet it’s the fourth time he’s done it.

So, again, the question: Does your team want a Hall of Fame closer?

He’s there, teams. Just waiting for you. Make an offer.

If you think I’m being cheeky with the Hall of Fame business, well, yes and no. Papelbon needs a couple more years, considering he doesn’t have the save totals that the next round of HOF closers will have, but he wouldn’t embarrass himself up against Bruce Sutter and Rollie Fingers:

He doesn’t have the innings, but that’s mostly because of the way relievers are used these days. The larger point is that Papelbon has been really good, and he’s been really good for an impressively long stretch. He was excellent last year, too. He’s not going to hold hitters to just two home runs every year, but he still has the command, control, and stuff to be a top-level closer.

Papelbon comes with baggage, of course. Not for the clubhouse, but for you. As in, you have to pay attention to him if he’s on your team. Maybe there’s a way to get Patrick Stewart to overdub all his postgame interviews, which would make him sound delightfully calm and erudite. But what do you care? If the ninth inning comes and goes without incident nine out of every 10 times -- and if there isn’t any unexpected late-inning drama in the postseason -- that’s all you should care about. Papelbon has been as consistent in that regard as any reliever outside of Mariano Rivera.

Does your team want a Hall of Fame -- okay, fine, a five-time All-Star closer? Now that we’ve established his bonafides, let’s just put him on a team. Papelbon would make 29 teams instantly better, but we’ll whittle it down to four runners up and then we’ll pick his new team. Don’t worry your pretty little heads about it, Phillies, we’ll do all the heavy lifting. Remember, these deals are non-negotiable and final.

The Nationals have a closer, albeit one with a couple notable postseason foibles, but they can always use depth. Considering they should be focusing on the postseason at this point, extra bullpen depth is exactly what they should be looking for. They just signed Casey Janssen, however, and that’s probably the last depth move for them. It was a solid, pragmatic move.

Except imagine this situation: Eighth inning of the NLCS Game 6, two runners reach, and Matt Williams goes straight to _____ and hopes he can put out the fire. Fill in the blank with any of the names currently available to the Nationals, and guess how comfortable they would feel. There’s time to remedy this before the trading deadline, though, so don’t expect the Nationals to give up prospects for a $13 million Papelbon just yet. They make perfect sense in an imperfect market.

Early in the offseason, the Brewers were the win-nowiest of win-now teams, and even though the only thing they’ve done since then is deal Yovani Gallardo, that didn’t change much in their quest to harass the NL Central again. Their de facto closer is still Jonathan Broxton, which isn’t exactly a confidence-builder.

It does remind me of this picture, in which Tim Collins and Everett Teaford fit into a single pair of Broxton’s pants.

But it doesn’t fill me with excitement about the Brewers bullpen. In a way, though, this is how the Brewers should play it, considering their limited financial/farm resources. Make sure the team is in a race first, then be aggressive at the deadline. For as much guff as I’m always willing to give Broxton, he’ll probably be okay. Somewhere between disaster and Aroldis is an island of Broxton, and the Brewers are probably okay with that for now. There wouldn’t be a worse feeling in the world to give up some of the remaining prospects in the system for a closer, then have the team fall 10 games back by the end of May.

The Dodgers make all sorts of sense. For one thing, they have the same need for depth that the Nationals have up there -- after Kenley Jansen, it gets surprisingly dicey for them in the bullpen. For another, they’re mostly out of ways to improve their team. For yet another, they serve T206 smoothies in the clubhouse because, hey, how else are players going to get the right kind of vintage fiber? They have the money.

Alas, remember that part up there about the Hall of Fame? It was kind of tongue-in-cheek, but it’s no joke to Papelbon. He really does have a shot with a few more good seasons and some outstanding save totals, and that might be related to his refusal to waive his no-trade clause if he won’t be a closer with his new team. The Dodgers are out.

The Rockies aren’t a good fit for an expensive closer, but it’s not like I ever know what in the hell they’re doing, and I needed a fourth team before moving on, so I’ll put their name in bold and hope no one notices it’s filler. Though I could do the same thing for the A’s, but substitute shocked approval for the bewilderment. It’s not like any of us know what they’re doing, either, but in a good way. The Cubs would be appreciably better with Papelbon, even if it might be uncomfortable for them to push Hector Rondon back into middle relief after his solid season.

We need to make a decision, though.

Hey, speaking of closers who are surprisingly on the fringes of Hall of Fame consideration, let’s check in on Joe Nathan. He’s ...

Other than that, he’s probably a rock-solid bet for 40 or 50 saves and excellent postseason work. However, let’s walk on the wild side and presume the Tigers could sure use another bullpen arm. Papelbon would push Nathan into a mix-and-match, eighth-inning role. If he flops there, the deadline would still give the Tigers time to address the bullpen.

Suddenly the bullpen has the right mix of high-reward raffle tickets like Joakim Soria, Joel Hanrahan, Bruce Rondon, and Al Alburquerque to go with a proven closer. Everyone takes a step back. Everyone’s a bit more comfortable, including Tigers fans. Here, I’ll even go one step further and make up a fake trade, which is an internet tradition:

That’s the sweet spot -- getting the prospects who are good enough to make Tigers fans attached to them, but not good enough to make Phillies fans excited. Now that’s a good, realistic trade. Let me just look at the Tigers’ top-30 prospects list and, whoops, my anti-virus program shut my computer down, that’s odd. I’m sure there’s a way to make it happen, though. The Phillies might be holding out for Varitek/Lowe for Cole Hamels, but they can’t expect it for Papelbon, not at that salary and not with the no-trade clause looming.

Congratulations, Tigers. I’ve decided that you have a new closer. He’s almost (though not quite, but almost if you’re very generous) a Hall of Famer. Maybe he wears your team’s cap on his plaque! You should be excited. Now don’t screw this up.