Picking the statistical over/unders for the 2015 MLB season

Two weeks ago, we took a look at the best over/under odds given by a particular sports book for the 2015 baseball season. A plurality of you decided that you were going to put your fake mortgage money on the Rangers to finish with 78 wins or more. Since gambling is illegal in most states, we hope you enjoyed this hypothetical exercise.

That’s not where the gambling stops, however! There are simple statistical over/unders to explore for the upcoming season, and I’m here to guide you through them. These are courtesy of Bovada, and I should point out this is not a sponsored post. They pay me in ideas only, which means I should point out something important: I do not have a personal set of ethics, and I would accept under-the-table money for posts like this. I could do ...

Which MLB slugger is most like Caldwell Insurance in Murfreesboro, Tennessee?

... for, like, three figures, tops. When sales asks what’s up, I’ll play dumb. I’m good at that. You have my email, and now onto the gambling.

We’re going to use *history* to figure this stuff out. In 2000, 11 hitters swatted 43 home runs or more. There haven’t been 11 hitters to do it in the last five years combined.

The line on that graph is burrowing straight into the ground. And there’s something of a historical precedent for this kind of dinger drought:

Seasons since 1961 without a 43-homer hitter
1972
1974
1975
1976
1981
1982
1983
1985
1986
2014

Once the dingers dip, they dip for a few years. If you’re looking for the beginning of a trend, you might have found it. I’m going to take the over, though, and put all of my hopes on Jesus Montero’s new body. They say he’s in the b

Prediction: Over

There are people who bet on the Pro Bowl, you know. They check the lines, check the rosters, make their due diligence, and gamble on the Pro Bowl. This is the baseball equivalent of gambling on the Pro Bowl, at least for statistically minded folks.

In the last calendar year, I’ve spent roughly 2,000 to 2,500 hours writing, researching, and thinking about baseball. I have opinions on Dillon Gee, and I can’t help it. In those hours, it never occurred to me once to look at an RBI leaderboard. That’s not haughtiness; it’s just the routine I’m on. So I have no idea how many people have finished with 128 RBI or more over the last few years.

Well, I’ll be. That’s a solid no for me. Cool it with the ribbies, Jesus. (That’s always a standard on Sunday.)

Prediction: Under

First reaction: That seems high. Really high. I know Jose Altuve charmed us all with his walnut-sized strike zone and superhero-sized bat last year, but I’m not expecting a huge list of .340 hitters in the next table.

Prediction: Over

There have been two seasons in the last 15 without a 210-hit player: 2002 and 2013. However, six of the last 10 seasons came from either Ichiro, Derek Jeter, or Michael Young. Who are the modern analogs? Other than Jeter, who will announce from Hank’s box that he’s coming back? Of all the dramatic ...

This is similar to the previous category, though. Don’t get hung up on names. Just remember that hits are often ridiculous. Imagine if football had a blindfolded quarterback and 17 receivers against eight defensive backs. That’s baseball, give or take.

Prediction: Over

This is the “Will Billy Hamilton stay healthy and productive?” category, though it was Dee Gordon who broke through last year.

Buncha weirdos up there. There might be a weirdo this year. The fact that there’s usually only one weirdo if there’s one at all makes me begrudgingly take the under. I will wait for Hamilton to make me look silly.

Prediction: Under

Oh, I don’t know. And like RBI, I wouldn’t care, other than the gambling. But what are you going to do, not gamble? Sometimes life just boxes you in.

Unlike hits or batting average, this one isn’t really bound by era or league-wide run environments. It helps pitchers stay in games longer when scoring is down, but that’s about the only way it helps pitchers accrue wins. Looks like there’s usually a guy who gets the run support in the perfect season.

Prediction: Over

You know what it takes to lose 17 games in a season? A poopy team and a pitcher with enough promise/talent to keep in the rotation, even when he’s having a dud of a season. It seems like a pretty unlikely and rare combination. But here are the seasons since 1961 without a 17-loss pitcher:

1981
1994
1995

All strike-shortened seasons. That’s it since the Mets came into the league, which is mostly a coincidence. It’s really, really easy to have a 17-loss pitcher, apparently.

Ah, but we’re not looking for 17-loss pitchers. We’re looking for pitchers with over 17 losses. Since 2000:

“Well, I’ll deal with a guy who loses 17 games. But 18? I can’t have that kind of pitcher in my rotation.”
- Managers, apparently.

Prediction: Under

No, this is the Pro Bowl bet of baseball. Seek help if you bet on this category. Seek help immediately!

There have been 16 seasons with 49 saves or more in the expansion era. Part of that has to do with the redefined roles in the bullpen, but there have never been more than three in a season. This seems like it might actually be the safest bet of all, by which I mean “the bet with the odds still weighted against you, but you’ll lose slightly less money over several seasons.”

Prediction: Under

Recently, we bemoaned the death of the 300-strikeout pitcher, who is probably just sleeping. A 256-strikeout season doesn’t seem too unlikely. To the last table!

Clayton Kershaw has never done it (overrated, smh), so you can see how this is a pretty high bar. Hitters are swinging and missing more than before, but starting pitchers are throwing fewer innings. There’s probably going to be a strikeout tipping point for starting pitchers soon, and someone’s going to rack up ungodly numbers. Randy Johnson’s gone and bronzed, but someone will step in and take advantage of these wild, free-swinging ‘10s.

Prediction: Over

I am not responsible for your losses. Note, though, that my mom asked me to pick a World Series bet for her when she was in Reno, and told me she would give me some of the winnings. I told her to pick the Dodgers because if I have to sit through that crap, at least I’ll get paid for it.

That’s how you gamble. With other people’s money, hedging against the possibility of you being supremely annoyed. If you have a chance to do that, I strongly recommend it.