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Jose Bautista’s free agent market keeps shrinking
Monday’s Say Hey, Baseball includes Jose Bautista’s lack of destinations, the Astros search for pitching, and more on the Dexter Fowler signing.
Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images
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Jose Bautista didn’t do himself many favors in 2016, as he was still good, but also missed time with injury and wasn’t the Joey Bats we all got used to seeing since 2010. It’s a lot easier to believe that a slugger will rebound from a comparatively down year — Bautista’s OPS+ was still a quality 117, but he averaged 156 from 2010 through 2015 — when they aren’t going to be 36 years old, and also when they aren’t seeking a contract that requires you to believe in at least part of their age-37, 38, and so on seasons as well. Bautista asked the Red Sox about their interest, but he was told that Boston didn’t have the money for him, not when they’re trying to stay under the luxury tax threshold. There’s that angle — surely not unique to the Sox — and there’s also the one the Orioles took, when general manager Dan Duquette straight-up told Bautista’s camp that his team’s fans don’t like him so there was no deal to work out.
The Rangers could probably get away with a similar response, if Bautista were even interested in becoming teammates with face-puncher Rougned Odor. Bautista can still play multiple defensive positions, but in the sense he can line up at them: he’s best used as a DH at this point, which likely limits his market further. The Blue Jays are still considering bringing him back, so it’s not as if Bautista is entirely out of destinations, but there are far fewer of them than there would have been had the bet he made on himself back in the spring, when he and the Jays couldn’t agree to an extension, had resulted in a high-quality summer.
Bautista only played in 116 games in 2016 thanks to a hyperextended big toe and a knee sprain, and hit 22 homers with a .234/.366/.452 line. While he struck out 20 percent of the time, a figure that’s not alarming on its own, it was a significant jump from 2015, when he whiffed just 16 percent of the time. It’s also fascinating that there was no cratering of his batting average on balls in play causing his drop in production: Bautista’s BABIP actually went up in 2016, from .237 to .255: in fact, Bautista has only had one “normal” BABIP in the last five years, with the rest of those seasons in this weird, lower range. Unless he dramatically changes his approach late into his career, it’s hard to see that trend changing as he ages and his bat slows further. Someone will still bet on him, but at this point, just who that is remains unclear.
- The Astros are interested in Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura, which could give the Royals their moment to decide if it’s time to seek out prospects in trades or if they’re still planning on giving 2017 a shot.
- The Giants want to lock Madison Bumgarner up for the long haul, but they’re likely to wait until next winter when they can negotiate while already under the luxury tax threshold.
- The Rays might be looking for an even bigger return for Chris Archer than what the White Sox got for Chris Sale, so they’re basically saying they don’t want to move him unless someone is so desperate they’re also willing to be idiotic about it.
- That might sound harsh, but remember that Archer suddenly gave up tons of homers and posted just a league-average ERA in 2016: Sale might never pitch like it’s 2014 again, but his down year looks like Archer’s best ones.
- The Pirates are "still engaged" in talks with free agent Ivan Nova, who resurrected his career in the short time he was with Pittsburgh.
- The White Sox likely are’t done dealing, but these four veterans are probably sticking around.
- Aroldis Chapman is with the Yankees for the next five years, and that changes the way some fans are going to root for their favorite team.
- Dexter Fowler’s deal, when compared to the trade price for Adam Eaton, showcases just how important cash is in this market.
- Former Braves and Red Sox reliever Anthony Varvaro is now a Port Authority Police Officer after graduating from the training program.
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