Mark Trumbo should sign with the Colorado Rockies, but ...

If your team wanted Mark Trumbo last year — really, really wanted him — they could have had him. The Baltimore Orioles really wanted him last year, and they probably had long internal discussions and debates about just how he would fit into their lineup. Eventually, they decided that, yes, it was worth a backup catcher to acquire him. As long as the Mariners threw in another pitcher into the deal.

If your team wants Mark Trumbo this year — really, really wants him — they can have him. It’s just like last offseason. Just pretend that instead of “Steve Clevenger,” your team needs to give up “$80 million and a draft pick.”

Six of one, half-dozen of the other, really.

What changed between Dec. 2015 and Dec. 2016? The obvious answer is 47 dingers, the league lead and a career high. But ask yourself what teams were expecting from Trumbo before the 2016 season started.

A low average. Lots of power. Lots of strikeouts. Defense that’s hard to hide. Lots of power. Also, power. And strikeouts.

Now ask yourself what the team that gives Trumbo his huge deal will expect.

A low average. Lots of power. Lots of strikeouts. Defense that’s hard to hide. Lots of power. Also, power. And strikeouts.

The only thing that’s changed is the scale. Instead of 20-30 homers, Trumbo now seems like a 30-40 homer guy. The on-base percentage still won’t crack .340, and it might dip below .300. But there should be more homers, right?

I don’t know if any team has an answer for that, which is why he’s still available on Dec. 15. Not only did Trumbo benefit from the league-wide spike in home runs, but he also played in Baltimore, which is just about the best place outside of Coors Field for someone with his skill set.

Let’s take a look at what’s changed for Trumbo. Is he making more contact?

K%
2012 - 26.1
2013 - 27.1
2014 - 24.6
2015 - 24.2
2016 - 25.5

Nope. That’s not it. Still striking out in a quarter of his plate appearances. Is he being more patient, waiting for his pitch better?

BB%
2012 - 6.1
2013 - 8.0
2014 - 7.7
2015 - 6.6
2016 - 7.7

Nope. Still within his expected range. Is he hitting the ball in the air more?

FB%
2012 - 39.4
2013 - 37.0
2014 - 40.2
2015 - 40.3
2016 - 43.1

Yes! An extra three fly balls out of every hundred could make a huge difference with a bouncier ball in Camden Yards. So let’s just see if he’s been hitting more homers on those fly balls ...

HR/FB%
2012 - 17.6
2013 - 16.9
2014 - 12.0
2015 - 12.4
2016 - 21.1

Well, this makes sense. Hitting one homer for every five fly balls isn’t unprecedented — Trumbo was second on his own team last year — so this doesn’t have to be an outlier that will correct itself. It suggests that Trumbo might have changed his approach in addition to the changes with his home park and home run rates around the league. This could be real. There might not have been a better skill set to take advantage of the new league.

Or, to put it another way, when Trumbo hit 34 homers in 2013, he was one of 14 players to hit more than 30. In 2016, 38 players hit more than 30 homers. The rising tide has lifted Trumbo’s ship, and he’s still able to stand out among his power-hitting peers.

There’s one more year-to-year comparison to make.

WAR
2012: 2.5
2013: 2.1
2014: -1.1
2015: 0.8
2016: 1.6

Throw out the high and the low, like an Olympic diving judge, and you have a player who’s worth a win or two, same as he ever was. A low average. Lots of power. Lots of strikeouts. Defense that’s hard to hide. Lots of power. Also, power. And strikeouts. The only difference is the scale and context. It happens to be the difference between Steve Clevenger and asking $80 million.

Who should take the risk? Which team is going to take the risk?

I ... wait ... I, uh, blacked out for a second there. Where am I? And why does it smell like the scorched foam flesh of a pretend triceratops?

Yes, Mark Trumbo is perfect for Coors. No, it’s not especially close. Not only is the place where fly balls are likeliest to reach Valhalla, but it’s for a franchise that’s had an absolutely miserable time finding a full-time first baseman. So much so that they signed a center fielder/shortstop to play there. Which doesn’t make a lick of sense.

It’s also perfect for Trumbo, too. It really is! Consider what the stats say about his outfield defense.

Appalling.

What they said about his third base defense back in the day.

Abominable.

This is an actual GIF from when he played third base:

Same. But here’s what the advanced stats have said about Trumbo at first base:

Fine! Just fine.

We have 3,000 innings, too, so it’s not that small of a sample. Trumbo has played first base in parts of seven seasons, and in six of them, he’s accrued positive numbers. Not just passable, but good. The problems, in order:

Since Trumbo’s first full season, he’s been planted behind three players who weren’t moving off the position. And Logan Morrison for a couple months. You do your thing up there, Mariners.

The Rockies would be a perfect place for Trumbo. He would play first, no questions asked. Ian Desmond could move to center. And the Rockies could trade Charlie Blackmon, or even better, pending free agent Carlos Gonzalez. The defense might actually improve with Trumbo if they moved Blackmon to right field, which would be one helluva magic trick.

It makes a lot of sense.

Which means the Rockies probably aren’t considering it.

The Orioles, of course. They don’t have to give up a draft pick. They currently have Trey Mancini penciled in as their DH, and he’ll be a 25-year-old who just hit .280/.349/.427 in Triple-A. They made the postseason with their homer-happy attack, and Pedro Alvarez won’t be around to steal at-bats from Trumbo. It all makes sense.

Except when you get to the part about $80 million. Yeah, that’s not going to fly with the Orioles, pun very much intended. I don’t see a team that needs him so badly that he comes close to it, especially considering he’s tied to the qualifying offer.

He could be a relative bargain if a) his 2016 dingerpalooza is for real and b) his defense really is OK at first base. Those aren’t the kind of assurances a team is going to want for $60 million, much less $80 million.

Orioles, three years, $54 million. Far, far less than he’s hoping. But they’ll have the leverage, considering they’re up against teams that would lose a draft pick. Ah, but there will be an opt-out in this hypothetical contract after the season, so if we’re talking another 47 homers, this could be a much different story next year.

It’s just a shame that we wouldn’t get to see what he can do at first for another full season.

And it’s a bigger shame that we won’t get Trumbo at Coors. Oh, what could have been.